Overview for a feasibility study

Transcription

1 Overview for a feasibility study What, Why & Objectives of Feasibility Study? International Atomic Energy Agency

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3 Nuclear power option included within the national energy strategy MILESTONE 1 Ready to make a knowledgeable commitment to a nuclear programme MILESTONE 2 Ready to invite bids for the first NPP MILESTONE 3 Ready to commission and operate the first NPP PHASE 1 Preparation of Infrastructure Considerations before a decision to launch a nuclear power programme is taken Preparing for assuming commitments & obligations Pre- Feasibility Study PHASE 2 Project Decision PHASE Making 3 Feasibility Study Environment Impact Activities to Analysis(EIA) implement a first NPP Site Evaluation Bid information Specification and Bidding and Evaluation EPC contract Preparatory work for the construction of a NPP after a policy decision has been taken Construction Feasibility Study Public information and understanding Maintenance and Commissioning continuous infrastructure improvement and Operation Pre project Project decision making Construction Operation / decommissioning Bidding process Commissionin g years 3/28/2014 3

4 Typical NPP Project Schedule Year Y-5 Y-4 Y-3 Y-2 Y-1 Y+1 Y+2 Y+3 Y+4 Y+5 Y+6 Milestones Major Contract Excavation First Set RV CHT F/L Concrete COD Feasibility Study & Project Plan Feasibility Study (12) Detailed Site Survey Environ. Impact Assess (24) License Prepare PSAR (12) PSAR Review by Reg. Body (18) Prepare FSAR (12) FSAR Review (18) Design & Procurement Long Lead Equip. Order Equip. Manufacture & Delivery (50) Construction Site Preparation Excavation (18 ~ 24) (12) Construction (52) Startup Project Phase Pre-Project Project Implementation

5 Pre-Requisites of Feasibility Study Analyse the country s industrial infrastructure Capability to fulfil the pre-requisites of a nuclear option What needs to be added and what needs to be upgraded Adequacy of its human resources in terms of availability, competence and trainability Analyse the impact of a NPP projects Economic impacts Cost impact of the project Financing landscape in and outside the country Social impacts of a nuclear power plant Environmental impacts

6 Major steps nuclear power programme Pre- Feasibility For NP Programme National Position for Nuclear Power Building the Nuclear Power Infrastructure Feasibility Study for NPP Preliminary Siting & Environmental Impact Assessment Siting & Environmental Impact Assessment Bid Preparation and Issue 6 Milestone 1 Milestone 2

7 Major steps in energy project Environmental Impact Assessment Bid Preparation and Issue Vendor Proposal Preparation Evaluation of Vendor Proposals Negotiations and Final Contract Feasibility Study Prequalification of Vendors Develop Owner Programs Financial Closure and Start of Project Structure of Project Ownership Identify External Financing Requirements Select External Financing 7 7

8 Major steps nuclear power programme Pre-Feasibility Environmental For Nuclear Impact Power Assessment Programme Feasibility Preliminary Study Siting & Environmental Impact Assessment National Position for Nuclear Power Bid Preparation and Issue Prequalification of Vendors Building the Nuclear Power Infrastructure Vendor Proposal Preparation Feasibility Study for NPP Evaluation of Vendor Proposals Siting & Environmental Impact Develop Assessment Owner Programs Negotiations and Final Contract Bid Preparation and Issue Financial Closure and Start of Project 8 Milestone 1 Structure of Project Ownership Identify External Financing Requirements Select External Financing Milestone 2

9 Why is a Feasibility Study needed A feasibility study is commissioned in order to assess, from an overall perspective: All aspects of the energy demand in a specific country or geographical area, To place the nuclear option in its rightful context To allow informed decisions & appropriate solutions To adopt safety driven solutions To establish the right level of investments Avoid costly mistakes and unnecessary risks Main purpose of a feasibility study is to determine if a business opportunity is possible, practical and viable.

10 Purpose of Feasibility Study (1) Provide answers to a number of specific questions: How can a new NPP be integrated to the existing electric power system; What is the most suitable size and main features of the NPP; What is the preferred site and the possible issues associated with the selected site; Which type of reactor (technology) should be the basis for bids VVER, EPR, AP-1000, APR-1400, ECR, ABWR, APR,ATMEA-1, CPR-1400 Assumptions often include such factors as: Technology used (equipment, production process, etc.) Financing (capital needs, volume and cost of goods, etc.), Marketing (prices, competition, etc.)

11 Purpose of Feasibility Study (2) Provide answers to a number of specific questions: How does cost and economics compare with alternative options; What are the organizational and manpower requirements to implement the project ; What can the overall project duration and schedule be? Is the project financially viable? Is it self-sustainable and what are the possible sources for financing; What type of contractual approach is most suitable for the plant acquisition; Can the international market for NPPs, fuel cycle and essential materials and services sustain the project during its operational life?

12 Purpose of Feasibility Study (3) Can the country s infrastructure support the project and what are the possibilities for national industrial and bulk supply participation? Can the nuclear safety criteria and regulation be implemented and how? What will the environmental impact be and is it acceptable? Estimated time for the preparation of a feasibility study depends on the complexity of the project and varies usually in the range of months The information used is confidential and should be protected by confidentiality agreements

13 Feasibility Study Report Executive summary 1. Introduction 2. Analysis of electric power supply, justification of new units 3. NPP unit capacity 4. Site characterization 5. NPP technology options 6. Summary of the results of the preliminary EIA 7. Implementation of the new build project 8. Procurement 9. Construction, operation, and human resources 10. Localization/ National Involvement 11. Licensing 12. Economic evaluation 13. Financing 14. Public Acceptance 15. Project Specification & Invitation to Bid

14 Feasibility Study Capacity Addition Alternatives Analysis Grid Capability Public Opinion Projected Cost of Electricity Site Selection Feasibility Study Legal issues Financial issues Infrastructure issues Technical issues Country s NP Infrastructure 14 Environment Market 14 Impact 14 Electrical

15 Overview for a feasibility study Use of Professional Consultants International Atomic Energy Agency

16 Lack of experiences Challenges for npp Get outside subject matter help s Milestone s document tells a Member State WHAT needs to be done, but not HOW to do it Get nuclear experts Both technical and legal Check their relevant experience and the quality of their team Hire someone you can trust Put your trust in them Be careful how you incentivize your advisors 16

17 Why need to hire a consultant? Requires a strong background both in the technical and financial aspects of the project. Credibility placed on the study by potential members and other interested parties. Important tool for the bidding process that has huge technical, financial and sometime political implications. For these reasons, it is important to hire a consultant with no formal ties to project, equipment manufacturers or marketers, so an unbiased evaluation of project operating potential and efficiency can be made. Don t be pennywise pound foolish The chain is only as strong as the weakest link 17

18 Consultant selection criteria No. Criteria Points 1 Previous experience in creating similar Feasibility Studies Knowledge of the industry to be studied (Nuclear Power) Qualifications of principal/key member team of Consultant Understanding of the Project Owner structure Proposed interaction/interfaces with the Project Owner designated representatives Verbal presentation/communication skills of the Consultant team Reasonableness of FS cost Miscellaneous 0-5 TOTAL

19 Project Contract Structures NI NF CW BOP CI Super turnkey Normal turnkey Split-package International Atomic Energy Agency

20 View of Nuclear Power Plant 3/28/

21 3/28/

22 Island of Nuclear Power Plant Presented by Jean-Louis Ricaud, Industrial involvement : Key considerations for developing a localization plan TM on nuclear infrastructure,, Feb at Vienna

23 Components of NPPs Reactor Pressure Vessel Reactor Internal Reactor Main Coolant Pump Primary coolant pipe Pressurizer Steam Generator Containment Concrete structure Cables Pumps Heat Exchangers Pump motors Vessels/ tanks Piping Valves Core internals Cables Electric Facilities Turbines Concretes and Steel Structure Instrumentations Ventilation equipment Mechanical equipment Power supply systems Others About 60,000 components 23

24 Nuclear Island / Conventional Island Nuclear Power Plant Nuclear Island Primary System Primary Side Auxiliaries Balance of NI NI-Electrical Supply and I&C Heating, Ventilating, Air Conditioning (HVAC) Conventional Island Steam Turbine Generator incl. aux system and I&C Balance of CI Water- Steam Cycle Cooling Water System CI-Electrical Supply Heating, Ventilating, Air Conditioning (HVAC) Balance of Plant Presented by Dong Su Shin, Contents of the Feasibility Study for a New NPP, June at Ulsan, KINGS 3/28/

25 Turn Key Contract for Construction ITB-Turnkey Contract-Turnkey NI + CI + BOP(A/E) NI + CI + BOP(A/E) Presented by Dong Su Shin, Contents of the Feasibility Study for a New NPP, June at Ulsan, KINGS 3/28/

26 Split Type Contract for Construction ITB-Component Contract-Component NI NI CI CI BOP BOP Presented by Dong Su Shin, Contents of the Feasibility Study for a New NPP, June at Ulsan, KINGS 3/28/

27 Multi-contract for Construction ITB-Component Contract-Component NI CI NSSS BONI BOCI T/G FUEL NSSS A/E T/G FUEL Pre-project A/E 3/28/

28 Muti-contract and technical transfer ITB-Component Contract-Component NSSS NSSS-EQ T/T NSSS-SD T/T T/G T/G T/T A/E A/E T/T Fuel Fuel T/T Presented by Dong Su Shin, Contents of the Feasibility Study for a New NPP, June at Ulsan, KINGS 3/28/

29 Korea Case

30 China - Qinshan phase (turnkey project)

31 Turn Key Contract Main contractor: Design and supply of the Npp Equipment procurement and design of the BOP Management of Npp construction Subcontractor management Construction work with subcontractors Provision of guidance and direction to the owner for commissioning. Overall commissioning management, Training of owner s plant management, operations and maintenance staff.

32 Overall Organization of the project and scope of supply ( Qinshan phase 3)

33 Turn Key Contract Owner: Site preparation Provision of permanent site facilities (offices, warehouse, etc.) Local staff to the Site Project Management Organization Management of the BOP construction; Management of licensing; Execution of commissioning; Provision of Quality Control of NPPs and BOP offshore equipment during manufacturing; Provision of additional site QC of NPP construction Provision of the first fuel loading

34 Site project management organization (Qinshan)

35 Integrated TQNPC/ AECL Commissioning Team (Qinshan) Note 1: The AECL Commissioning and Operations organization provides guidance and direction to TQNPC Commissioning and Operations organizations and has a reporting relationship to AECL Project Director. Note 2: The TQNPC Commissioning Technical, Commissioning Execution and Production Organization perform the Commissioning and have a reporting relationship to the TQNPC General Manage

36 Business Model for Construction and Operation Contract 3/28/

37 BOO: Build Own Operate The operator is granted the right by the host government to develop, finance, build, own, operate, and maintain a facility for a specified period. During this time the entity owns the project and retains revenues. Project will be subject to all applicable laws, regulations and codes in Turkey. All necessary licenses, permits and approvals from related governmental organizations shall be obtained by APC. 3/28/

38 Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant is the First Rosatom BOO Construction Project Outside Russia AKKUYU NGS AŞ Akkuyu site, Turkey Mersin Akkuyu Project Features First Nuclear Power Plant in Turkey Rosatom is responsible for engineering, construction, operation and maintenance of the plant. Legal basis: Intergovernmental Agreement, May 12, 2010 Project design: AES-2006 (VVER-1200) Total capacity: 4,800 MW. (4 x 1200 MW) Implementation period: Total cost ~ $ 20 bln Power Purchase Agreement for 15 years, fixed price terms 38

39 Power purchase agreement TETAS will purchase: - 70% of electricity from Unit 1 and 2-30% of electricity from Unit 3 and 4

40 BOOT: Build Own Operate Transfer (construction, operation) The operator initially owns the nuclear power plant. An agreement between the parties allows a transfer of the nuclear power plant ownership to a local operator after a specified period of time. 3/28/

41 BDF: Build Design Finance Vendor assumes the responsibility for the design, construction and financing of the plant, but transfers the responsibility of operating the plant to the local operator and host government. Assist the operator in the plant commissioning and during its first period of operation. 3/28/

42 Interesting Challenges Need to develop all at the same time Plant Safe, secure, environmentally responsible design for specific site acceptable to Regulators and Authorities Cover all aspects of managing the Site (plant & people) throughout life Processes and Procedures People Design, Construction, Operation, Maintenance Presented by Dr Janet Wilson, Director of Licensing and Permissions, Horison Nuclear Power, experiences of developing and Building ABWR in the UK Feb at Vienna

43 Interesting Challenges To the satisfaction of all Stakeholders Presented by Dr Janet Wilson, Director of Licensing and Permissions, Horison Nuclear Power, experiences of developing and Building ABWR in the UK Feb at Vienna

44 Interesting Challenges Attractive Investment Presented by Dr Janet Wilson, Director of Licensing and Permissions, Horison Nuclear Power, experiences of developing and Building ABWR in the UK Feb at Vienna

45 Recommendations There are three main construction contract types turnkey, split-package and multicontract. The roles and responsibilities of the project management team will vary, depending on the adopted contract approach. 45

46 Recommendations The multi-contracting structure has higher risks Interface Requirements Falling Through the Cracks, Misunderstandings Among Contractors, Schedule Control And Delivery Risks, But It Allows for more local participation. This type should only be undertaken if the owner had successfully gone through a nuclear power project already, so it is not recommend this. A turnkey contract is lower risk. As a newcomer county, it is recommended 3/28/