Can heat pumps replace gas for space heating? Can heat pumps decarbonise the heating sector?

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1 Can heat pumps replace gas for space heating? Can heat pumps decarbonise the heating sector? Thomas Nowak Secretary General EHPA Can 1 heat pumps replace gas for space heating? T Nowak Zero Conferensen Oslo

2 Energy sources for heat pumps 2

3 Heat pumps always provide heating and cooling Auxiliary energy electricity/gas can be RES, too Discharge to Environment (air/water) Air, Water Ground or recovered energy cooling evaporate compress condense heating OR Use expand Energy source è This side is cooled Heat pump Energy sink è This side is heated 3

4 Application areas for heat pump 4

5 Can heat pumps replace gas for space heating? Yes, they can! 5

6 The benefit of 8.4 million installed heat pumps: a triple dividend to climate and energy targets Renewable energy contribution CO 2 savings Primary energy savings 92.9 TWh 23.9 Mt 55.7 TWh 6

7 Heat pump benefits: less air pollution in cities: example Krakow Thanks to Port PC for the example Fot. Bogdan Achimescu 7

8 Heat pump benefits cost efficient demand response potential Example: Germany + Hydropumped storage 4 TWh/a 1 Hot water storage 6 TWh/a 2 Heat Pumps 3 TWh/a 3 Source: 1) Wikipedia, 2) Fraunhofer IBP,Bericht ES /2012, 3) BWP-Branchenstudie. Estimates by BWP/Dimplex Demand response potential for Europe: GW Source: EHPA calculations based on EU HP stock

9 COP21 - a great success 9

10 COP21 an incredible challenge Source: Rogelj, J.: etp2017/3_rogelj_iea_etp_wb2ds_workshop_ _distri.pdf 10

11 Final energy demand for EU28 by end-use for H/C in all sectors in 2012 [total: TWh] 11 Cooling =326 TWh 5%!! % values apply on total! Source: Fraunhofer ISI et al. (2016): Report WP 1, p.83

12 Avg. CO2 emissions/kwh: status quo 2015 & target values (Source: EU building stock 2015, Entranze, own calculations) 0,50 0,45 0,40 0,35 0,30 0,25 0,20 0,15 Average emissions per kwh =100% 0,10 0,05 0,

13 13 Should heat pumps replace fossil energy for space heating?

14 Heat pump market development accumulated: 8.4 million units installed Countries EU 11 EU 12 EU 14 EU 14 EU 19 EU 21 14

15 Development of the boiler market boilers heating HP

16 market potentials if Sweden was everywhere - actual sales 2015 total: > 5 mio 16

17 Energy sources per dwelling (source: entranze.eu) District heating Oil Gas Coal Biomass Heat pumps direct electric 17

18 We have to try harder, to decarbonise the heating sector! And shift technique and technology 2,45m, Javier Sotomayor 6,16 m, Renaud Lavillenie 18

19 A possible decarbonisation of heating with a booster by decarbonised electricity 0 CO2 Emissions in Mt Market share in EU heating 100,0% 90,0% 80,0% 70,0% 60,0% 50,0% 40,0% 30,0% 20,0% 10,0% 0,0% Source: Entranze, Eurelectric, own calculations Electricity Heat pumps Biomass District Gas Oil Coal 19

20 How can necessary growth be triggered? 20

21 It needs ambition to make our cities heat pump cities 21 Questions? Thomas Nowak Secretary General EHPA