FRAUNHOFER INSTITUTE FOR WINd ENERgy ANd ENERgy SySTEm TEcHNOlOgy IWES. wind energy report germany 2012

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1 FRAUNHOFER INSTITUTE FOR WINd ENERgy ANd ENERgy SySTEm TEcHNOlOgy IWES wind energy report germany 2012

2 publisher: Dr. Kurt Rohrig Fraunhofer Institute for Wind Energy and Energy System Technology (IWES) Division Energy Economy and Grid Operation Königstor Kassel / Germany windmonitor@iwes.fraunhofer.de Editorial team: Volker Berkhout, Stefan Faulstich, Philip Görg, Paul Kühn, Katrin Linke, Philipp Lyding, Sebastian Pfaffel, Khalid Raik, Dr. Kurt Rohrig, Renate Rothkegel, Elisabeth Stark Consulting Dr. Jutta Witte (editorial ofice Surpress) Cover photo acknowledgment: Siemens press picture Copyright: All rights to reprint, use imagers, reproduce in a photo mechanical or similar way and to save information in data processing systems remains the right of the Fraunhofer IWES and their employers.

3 Fraunhofer Institute for Wind Energy and Energy System Technology (IWES) division Energy Economy and grid Operation wind energy report germany 2012 Volker Berkhout, Stefan Faulstich, Philip Görg, Paul Kühn, Katrin Linke, Philipp Lyding, Sebastian Pfaffel, Khalid Raik, Dr. Kurt Rohrig, Renate Rothkegel, Elisabeth Stark

4 WIND ENERGY REPORT GERMANY

5 Special Report the energiewende in north Hesse dr Thorsten Ebert / Katharina Henke Background The Stadtwerke Union Nordhessen (SUN) and Fraunhofer Institute for Wind Energy and Energy System Technology IWES in Kassel have carried out a study to evaluate the options for switching electricity provision in North Hesse to electricity generated by decentralized, renewable technologies. The partners in the SUN union are the six municipal utility companies in Bad Sooden-Allendorf, Eschwege, Homberg, Kassel, Wolfhagen, and Witzenhausen. The objective is to develop a concrete, energy scenario for future energy provision in the region. The region covers the areas of responsibility of the aforementioned municipality utility companies (the municipalities of Kassel, Schwalm-Eder, and Werra-Meissner and the city of Kassel). The nuclear power phase-out and the current debate on future legal boundary conditions for the energy sector (in particular those laid down by the REA) has led to pressure on negotiations surrounding electricity provision. The study described in this report shows, amongst other things, that there are good opportunities for decentralization and regionalization of energy provision. Similar approaches have been adopted at the community level in the past, but as yet not for whole regions. In North Hesse there is in this regard an interesting mix of urban and industrial areas and large areas with a low concentration of buildings. This decentralized approach expressly does not aim for autarkic energy provision in the region under consideration. The questions considered in this study included: What is the current status of the expansion of decentralized, renewable energy? What demand is there (work, power, and load proile) and what fraction of this is currently covered by decentralized renewables? What potential area is available for electricity generation from wind, solar, biogas, and hydroelectric sources and what power can be generated? What expansion scenarios should be targeted for economically and technologically viable coverage of the regional electricity demand? What opportunities for the energy industry and power generation does maximum utilization of decentralized renewable sources offer? What residual demand is there and how can this be covered? What excess energy can be generated and what options are there to trade this? methodology In order to systematically evaluate expansion scenarios from the current situation, the reference situation in 2010 was analyzed in detail. About ca. 730,000 people live in the region under consideration (see Figure 1). The area of the three municipalities including the city of Kassel is ca km². Although the city of Kassel and its immediate surroundings are largely built-up and industrialized, the three municipalities are much more rural with only a few medium sized towns. The estimated electricity demand is ca. 3.7 TWh/a with a peak load of ca. 600 MW. In order to determine what potential surface area is available for the expansion of electricity generation from wind, PV, and bio-energy and what power can be generated, it was not the theoretical situation in the region which was evaluated but rather a scenario in which the whole of Germany was supplied with all of its electricity from renewable energies. Namely, all potential areas in the region for generating electricity were not utilized, rather North Hesse was included in a scenario in which all the electricity used in German came from renewables. The mix of technologies differed depending on the different criteria. Figure 2 gives an overview of the data basis that was used to determine the potential area required for electricity generation: The data for wind, PV, and bio-energy were determined for each postcode and were categorized for the three municipalities and Wind farm Trendelburg-Eberschütz hessenwind II GmbH & Co. KG 59

6 WIND ENERGY REPORT GERMANY 2012 Kassel district km People GWh/a City of Kassel 107 km People 930 GWh/a Schwalm-Eder district km People GWh/a Total km People GWh/a Werra-Meißner district km People 642 GWh/a the city of Kassel. In the three municipalities the electricity that could potentially be generated is much higher than the current demand, whilst the situation is the reverse in the city of Kassel. Overall, the electricity that could potentially be generated is signiicantly above the current demand (157%, see Figure 3). The area required for the potential wind turbines is ca. 47 km², namely about 1.2% of the total area. As such this lies below the 2% target of the state government of Hesse. It must be heeded, however, that not all areas would be proitable to exploit and, provided the demand is there for electricity, a greater area would probably have to be assigned for such a scenario.. expansion scenarios The scenarios that have been considered in this project allow future situations to be evaluated. Several expansion scenarios can be proposed using sensible assumptions. Figure 1: The SUN region Data sources Energy potential As such, ive scenarios have been deined based on the 2025 target of 80% electricity consumption in the SUN region from renewables. These comprise one base scenario and four further scenarios with a different mix of renewables. Simulations were carried out and the economic and technical aspects of the results were compared. REA master data Land use Grassla d, forest, far i g, housi g, i dustrial Topographical object data Streets, railways, ature.sa ctuaries, ad i istratio districts Offshore wind farm locations Biomass potential Population Figure 2: Determination of potential areas for energy production from renewables Wind energye onshore offshore Photovoltaics Slanted roof system Flat roof system Front systems PV along highways PV along railways Biomass Energy crops (Gas, solid, liquid) Sewage gas (industrial, private) Forest residues Waste wood Organic waste Last Households Industry The following energy mix was arbitrarily deined for the base scenario: Wind 60% PV 14% Biomass 5% Hydroelectric 2% Further analyses then determined whether higher/lower shares of the technologies have beneits from an economic or energy production standpoint. The cornerstone here is wind energy which covers more than half of the electricity demand. 60

7 Special Report The Energiewende in North Hesse It is assumed that in the coming years there will be a trend towards lower electricity consumption, driven by more eficient electrical appliances. However, this will be (over)compensated again by the aforementioned developments. For simpliication, it was hence assumed for all scenarios that there would be constant electricity usage in the region in the medium term GWh/a solar energy 3304 GWh/a wind energy 2455 GWh/a private consumption To compare the scenarios, the feed-in time series of the electricity generating installations (renewables) were compared to the regional demand proile. The residual demand or excess energy were then determined. The residual demand is the electricity consumption minus the electricity generated from renewables. Figure 4 shows the residual demand / excess energy for the base scenario and the max-renewables scenario. The results show that the base scenario leads to excess electricity generation in ca. 3 months. This must either be transported to another region or the electricity production must be reduced. A sensible size for a potential decentralized back-up power station is MW (although no proitability analysis has been carried out here). The need for back-up power of, for example, 400 MW only arises on a few days per year. In contrast, the max-renewables scenario produces considerably greater excess energy, meaning there are signiicant opportunities for exporting this. Two questions arise from this: How can the residual electricity demand be produced? What solutions are there for using the excess electricity? Provided the residual electricity demand is also generated decentrally, then two variants are conceivable: Construction/sharing a gas turbine power station Construction/sharing a pumped storage hydro power station 73 GWh/a hydroelectric power Figure 3: Potential electricity generation in the SUN region MW 631 GWh/a biomass 1 hours per year 1000 Figure 4: Annual load duration curves for the residual demand in the different scenarios RE potential base scenario max-renewables 2000 base scenario consumption 5767 GWh/a 157 % 3664 GWh/a GWh/a industrial consumption max-renewables

8 WIND ENERGY REPORT GERMANY Excess energy Residual electricity provision from upstream grid Total renewable feed-in feed-in from gas-fired power plant Regarding a suitably sized pumped storage hydro power station, there are no opportunities for expansion in the region under consideration. However, projects are currently being discussed in both Westphalia and Thuringia. A totally different alternative is interregional electricity provision. From a technical standpoint all three variants are possible. So far, an economic evaluation has not been undertaken as part of this project MW 10 days / End of December Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Sat Sun Mon A 400 MW gas turbine power station would allow the decentralized self-generated share to be increased to almost 100%. The operating hours would be ca hours/year (see Figure 5). Even without detailed analysis of the proitability it is clear that such a power station cannot be operated proitably without development of a capacity market. Figure 5: Residual load with a gas-ired power plant A suitably sized pumped storage hydro power station whose operation is adapted to the residual demand proile would also allow almost full coverage of the demand. The advantage here would also be that excess electricity could be used regionally to ill the upper reservoir (see Figure 6). Current indings suggest that even here considering current market conditions that proitable operation is not a given. Excess power of ca MW arises in the base scenarios and in the three variants. This excess power is up to 2500 MW in the max-renewables scenario. As the current peak demand is ca. 600 MW, it must be assumed that the overlapping grid capacities are not suitable for transporting this power (regardless of whether there is demand for this power elsewhere). As such, the indications are that expansion of decentralized electricity generation from renewables irst requires expansion of the capacities of the transmission systems (in particular if such a Figure 6: Smoothing of the residual load with a pumped storage hydro power station 62

9 Special Report The Energiewende in North Hesse concept is pursued in many regions). Energy storage is an alternative or at least addition to interregional grid expansion. Besides electricity storage, heat storage is particularly relevant here (power to heat or power to gas). regional value creation Currently the major part of electricity demand in the region is supplied with power imports. First estimates indicate that about 330 million euros low out of the region each year due to external power production and interregional transport. If local production could be realized, about 300 million euros of this (hence 90%) could be kept in the region. results The key indings of the study are as follows: The SUN region has much more available area than is nee- Figure 7: Value creation via own electricity production ded for predominantly decentralized electricity production from renewables. Provided a lexible energy production structure (gas and pumped storage hydro power installations) is explicitly planned to meet the regional demand, power production of the order of ca. 400 MW seems viable. With the current market design, this could however not be operated proitably. The regional potential for value creation already exceeds the (regional) costs arising from the increasing surcharge under the REA (Renewable Energy Act). A regional switchover to renewables is also possible in a region having a large regional center with substantial industry. The share of electricity generation from renewables can be increased by expanding storage and also by interregional transport. 63

10 Fraunhofer iwes Kassel Königstor Kassel / Germany Phone: Fax: Fraunhofer iwes Bremerhaven Am Seedeich Bremerhaven / Germany Phone: Fax: info@iwes.fraunhofer.de Funded Supervised by on the base of an act of the German Parliament by Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety