Drought Risk Management in Agriculture: Case for Zimbabwe. Leonard Unganai

Transcription

1 Drought Risk Management in Agriculture: Case for Zimbabwe Leonard Unganai UNDP/GEF: Coping with Drought and Climate Change Project, Zimbabwe Environmental Management Agency 1.0 Introduction Inter-annual and intra-seasonal climate variability are major sources of production risk in rainfed agriculture production systems in semi-arid regions (Speranza, 2008). In these regions, drought is arguably the most important source of production risk and has major impacts on rural livelihoods (Buckland et al., 2000). It has been argued that, unless concrete steps are taken to integrate climate risk management and enhance the resilience of rainfed agriculture, climate change will intensify already adverse conditions for crop and livestock productivity. Several predictions suggest possible crop yield losses of 20-50% by 2050 across most of Sub-Saharan Africa because of climate change (Cooper et al. 2008; IPCC, 2008). This paper presents different risks posed by drought in rainfed agriculture production systems in semi-arid areas of southeast Zimbabwe and discusses various strategies that have been adopted by rural farmers in Chiredzi District to proactively manage the risks, as well as to cope after the risk has been realised. The paper is based mostly on work done under the UNDP/GEF supported project, Coping with Drought and Climate Change, implemented through the Environmental Management Agency over the period Figure 1 Location map of Chiredzi District in Zimbabwe.

2 1.1 Agriculture, economy and food security in Zimbabwe Agriculture accounts for approximately 15-18% of Zimbabwe s gross domestic product (GDP), 60% of the raw materials required by the manufacturing industry and 40% of total export earnings (MAMID, 2013). Around60% of the economically active population depends on agriculture for livelihoods with women playing an important role in the sector, accounting for an estimated 70% of small holder farmers. The agricultural sector declined rapidly between as a result of rainfall variability (for example droughts during the period shown in Figure 2) and socio-economic instability. Despite the decline in performance of the agriculture sector in the past decade, the sector continues to play an important role in the country s economy and social development. Figure 2 Variation in Zimbabwe national average maize yield in relation to annual rainfall over the period 2000 and 2009 (Source of national crop yield data: Ministry of Agriculture, Mechanisation and Irrigation Development, 2012). 2.0 Coping with Drought and Climate Change in Zimbabwe Project The project was developed by UNDP and the Government of Zimbabwe in The First National Communication for Zimbabwe (1998) formed an important starting point in project design and site selection. This project sought to develop and pilot a range of long-term adaptation measures in the agriculture sector to reduce the vulnerability of small-holder farmers and pastoralists in rural Zimbabwe to current and future climate change related shocks, particularly drought. 2.1 Problems that the project seek to address

3 The reliance on rainfed agriculture makes the agriculture sector in Zimbabwe particularly vulnerable to climate variability and change. The project, therefore, addressed the potential impacts of long-term climate change and focused on building the resilience and the capacity of local and national stakeholders to manage the increased frequency and intensity of drought. The country has been historically prone to droughts and the increasing frequency of drought events over the last two decades has had devastating impacts on food security, health and the environment. In Chiredzi District, rural farmers face the difficult management decisions on how to allocate limited resources among crop and livestock production, and off-farm employment. The main barrier to overall productivity and adaptive capacity is how effectively farmers make use of limited amounts of water and available production technologies. Diminishing water resources due to climate change is an additional stress on top of anthropogenic environmental destruction and mismanagement. The project specifically also addressed the constraint that crop production in the region is highly oriented toward rain fed cereal (maize, sorghum) crop production and that the communal areas used for livestock production are overgrazed in the wet season, resulting in a shortage of fodder during the dry season.. Risks faced by the farmers Smallholder farmers in Chiredzi District are exposed to one of the harshest climates of Zimbabwe, as the area falls within Natural Region V, which ranks the least in terms of agronomic suitability. In this region, rainfall is too low (generally below 450 mm per annum) and erratic for meaningful production of any crops under rain-fed conditions. The District generally experiences one good agricultural season in 5-6 years. During the 1991/92 rainfall season, the district received a seasonal total rainfall amount of only 127 mm. Most crops were a complete failure and livestock perished in the thousands. This rainfall pattern is projected to become more severe, increasing in variability and extreme events in the future, making future planning by the farmers to reduce the negative impacts of future climate change difficult. (Aguilar et al, 2009). Even drought tolerant crops such as sorghum and millets can only give marginal yields under the conditions that obtain in Chiredzi district. Temperatures in the district have warmed by up to 0.6⁰C between 1966 and 2005 worsening water balance challenges associated with enhanced evaporative water loss (GoZ-UNDP/GEF: Coping with Drought and Climate Change project, 2009).

4 Picture box 3.1: Cartoon by a rural Chiredzi resident depicting experiences from the drought. In addition to drought, farmers face a number of other risks in their operations. Major risk categories identified include: production risks associated with other non-climatic factors such as access to technology, limited access to high value markets, lack of access to finance, limited policy support and reduced availability of labour due to the HIV/AIDS pandemic.. While interannual and intra-seasonal climate variability is the major source of production risks in rain-fed agriculture production systems in the District, many other factors can impact the lives and livelihoods of farmers. Figure 3 shows cattle population trends in one part of Chiredzi District and how war, disease and drought reduced the numbers in the 1970s and early 1990s respectively. Marketing risks which can stem from unanticipated forces, such as inclement weather, drought conditions, crop failure, bumper harvests, or pest or disease outbreak, can lead to dramatic changes in crop and livestock prices and also greatly impact farmers. Figure 3 Growth of human and cattle populations in Matibi II Communal Land of Chiredzi District, Zimbabwe between 1920 and Cattle numbers declined markedly in the late 1970s and during the drought. Statistics for human population not available for some of the individual years (Source: Cumming, undated)

5 A livestock producing household facing a deepening drought has to grapple with multiple mutually reinforcing challenges. Pasture and water become scarce; animal condition declines, milk production reduces and the value of animals to be sold falls. Birth rates go down and mortality rates go up. The price of staple food often rises drastically, meaning that more animals have to be sold to buy the same quantity of grain. Drought also tends to increase livestock management challenges as summarized in text box 1: Text box 1: Drought increases residue risks During times of drought, chemical residues in livestock may increase as a result of: Increased reliance on purchase feed, Temptation to feed unusual materials, Loss of pasture cover, which can increase animals soil intake, When livestock lose condition, residue levels of fat-soluble chemicals can increase, Crop residues tend to build up nitrates Drivers of vulnerability The project s community discussions found that vulnerability in Chiredzi District is related to: inherent dryness, a high frequency of drought, monocropping (over-dependence on maize), poor farming practices, high incidence of poverty, limited alternative livelihood options outside agriculture, limited access to technology (irrigation, seed) including markets, institutions and infrastructure (poor roads, bridges, modern energy, dams and water conveyance), population pressure, skewed ownership and access to drylands livelihood assets such as livestock and wildlife, lack of drought preparedness plans and limited use of climate early warning systems. 2.2 Community perspectives on climate risks and impacts Community participatory climate risk analysis for Chiredzi district revealed that drought is the most important climatic hazard and five types of drought are normally experienced in the district. The five drought types are: early season (characterized by delayed or slow onset of the rains), mid-season (rains break for weeks on end about January/February), terminal (rains just terminate from about January/February), seasonal (rains are light and patchy throughout the

6 season) and extreme drought (in this case rains fail for two or more consecutive seasons). The extreme drought type is locally referred to as Chingwangwa and usually calls for state intervention to save livestock and human-lives. A community historical drought time-line captured, 1946/47, 1948, 1965, 1966, 1968, 1969, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1987, 1991, 1992, 1995, 1996, 2001, 2002, 2006, 2007, 2008 as some of the droughts that had severe impacts on rural-livelihoods in Chiredzi district. Statistics from the OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database show number of people affected by disasters that affected Zimbabwe and the economic cost between 1980 and 2000 (Table 1). Table 1clearly shows that drought affected the highest number of people compared to other disasters and the economic cost of the 1982 drought runs into billions of United States dollars. Table 1 Impacts of disasters, (a) number of people affected, and (b) economic cost. Source of data: OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database. No of people Affected Disaster Date Cost (US$ X 1,000) Disaster Date Drought ,000,000 Drought ,500,000 Drought ,000,000 Flood ,000 Drought ,100,000 Flood ,900 Drought ,680,000 Drought ,000 Drought ,000 Flood ,600 Epidemic ,000 Storm ,200 Flood ,000 Epidemic Epidemic ,349 Epidemic Drought ,000 Epidemic Flood ,000 Drought Text box 2 summarises some of the common impacts of drought at community level as extracted from focus group discussions with a selected sample of Chiredzi District farmers.

7 Text Box 2: Common drought impacts at community level in Chiredzi Livelihoods Crop failure Lack of fodder for cattle Lack of water for cattle & irrigation Food security Reduced availability of food Reduced availability of nutritious food Health Insufficient water for hygiene purposes Increase in diarrheal diseases Stress associated with loss of livelihoods Economic Increased prices of food and fodder Loss of income from agriculture Loss of employment Social Migration and associated impacts on families Increased inequity among social groups Increase in crime Increase in school drop-outs Increase burden on women and children Increased burden on government and relief agencies Environmental Increase in deforestation Loss of biodiversity Saline water intrusion 3.0 Proactive drought risk management in Zimbabwe s semi-arid regions Mixed crop-livestock systems are a traditional livelihood strategy for many smallholder farmers in semi-arid rural areas around the world, including Zimbabwe. These systems are believed to be well adapted to climatic conditions characterised by erratic rainfall patterns and recurrent droughts (Wani et al., 2009). It is further believed that diversified livelihood systems with a livestock component are flexible and have a higher capacity to deal with multiple stresses that are typical of a semi-arid and drought prone climate in particular. However, increasing climate variability and emerging climate change in semi-arid areas of Zimbabwe pose threats to natural processes that sustain fodder production for livestock and moisture for rainfed crop production (Tadross et al., 2009). This calls for proactive drought risk management strategies. Table 3 presents drought risk management strategies promoted through the Coping with Drought and Climate Change project among small holder farmers in Chiredzi District. Some of the strategies

8 built on local knowledge systems and results from years of research by locally based agricultural research stations. The strategies are in two categories, those used before a drought unfolds and those used during and after a drought risk has been realised. Table 2 Drought risk management strategies commonly used in Chiredzi District, Zimbabwe before and after a drought risk has been realised. Risk management strategies Scale Before drought During and after drought Planting - Optimise crop type selection - Use drought tolerant crop varietes - Early planting of groundnuts, sorghum and pearl millet (October/November) - Staggered planting dates - Reduce planting density (this is by far the most commonly practiced strategy among Chiredzi District farmers) - Use climate information to optimise planting decisions Plot - Use plots on soils with good water retention capacity - Practice soil moisture conservation techniques, such as tied ridges, deep plough furrows and basins (the project successfully promoted soil moisture conservation) - Replant with earlier maturing crop types or varieties - Weed management - Delay or avoid fertiliser use - No use of inorganic fertilisers Farm/Household - Diversified cropping - Land type diversification - Keep cereal stocks to last two years or more if possible. - Asset diversification - Livelihood diversification - Adopt conservation agriculture - Reduce or increase land under crops - Increase reliance on drought tolerant crops including sorghum, millet and cassava - For livestock, encourage herd growth in good seasons (the assumption is that drought will provide a natural culling effect to avoid over population) - Diversify livestock types by introducing goats, donkeys, etc which do not need as much grazing and water as cattle. - Keep indigenous livestock breeds - Reallocate resources in line with trends in the season - Livestock or asset sales. - Embark on casual labour - Off farm employment - Exploit ecosystem services such as wild fruits, game, etc. - Use crop stover to supplement livestock grazing, - Buy commercial stock feeds and feed drought survival rations to livestock. - Graze animals early in the morning and for longer hours. It is believed that the palatability of pastures increases when soaked with early morning dew. - Exploit social networks, safety nets and remittances Drought is a serious barrier to successful crop and livestock production in arid and semi-arid regions. Factors that affect risk management during drought among livestock producers include: Herd size in relation to available feed (natural and supplemental) How widespread the drought area is,

9 The time of year and the likelihood of rain and return to adequate feed supplies, Current and projected crop and livestock market outlook, Cash flow needs During times of drought, when crops have failed and livestock get into a desperate state, usually a number of actors spring into action from household to international level, depending on the severity of the situation. Evidence from Chiredzi District showed that strategies listed in table 3 are common in dealing with drought related risks once the impact has been realised. Table 3 Drought risk management strategies identified by communities in Chiredzi district. Level Response Household - Saving available food - Growing drought tolerant crops especially sorghum - Exchange casual labour for food - Remittances - Dependence on social networks - Migration, especially to neighbouring countries - Distress sale of assets (particularly livestock) Local government - Sink boreholes - Food for work NGOs - Sink boreholes - Provide food relief - Provide seed for recovery phase - Nutrition gardens - Livestock support (to rebuild livelihood assets) - Small-scale Irrigation Private sector - Provide employment - Provide fodder for livestock (molasses) - Provide relief grazing - Provide game meat - Sell grain - Purchase livestock from farmers Central Government - Provide seed - Food assistance - Rehabilitate/develop irrigation facilities - Credit facilities Conclusions This paper has reviewed drought risk management efforts in semi-arid regions of southeast Zimbabwe. The lessons are largely based on work done under the UNDP/GEF supported Coping with Drought and Climate Change project implemented in Chiredzi District,

10 Zimbabwe between Despite evidence of heavy risks of drought, Zimbabwe is yet to come up with an integrated climate risk management framework for vulnerable sectors and sections of society, particularly semi-arid regions. Drought is a slow onset disaster which requires proactive risk management strategies to address the problem on a long-term basis. Part of the integrated response should seek to understand past successful efforts to reduce drought risk through integration of social, economic, scientific and technological research and action. Governments need to be encouraged to ensure that drought management plans are in place at local levels with appropriate institutional and legal structures for longterm drought risk management. References. Aguilar, E., Aziz Barry, A. Brunet, N. Ekang, L. Fernandes, A. Massoukina, et al Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in western central Africa, Guinea Conakry, and Zimbabwe, , J. Geophys. Res., 114, D Cooper, P.J.M., J. Dimes, K.P.C. Rao, B. Shapiro., B. Shiferaw and Twomlow, S., Coping better with current climatic variability in the rain-fed farming systems of sub-saharan Africa: An essential first step in adapting to future climate change. Agric. Ecosystems and Env., 126, GoZ-UNDP/GEF, Coping with Drought. Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change: a focus on Chiredzi district, Zimbabwe. Technical Report, Environmental Management Agency, Harare. IPCC, Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva. Ministry of Agriculture, Mechanization and Irrigation Development (MAMID), Draft Comprehensive Agriculture Policy Framework, Harare, Zimbabwe. Speranza, C.I., Resilient Adaptation to climate change in African agriculture. German Development Institute (DIE) Technical Report, Bonn , pp. Tadross, M., P. Suarez, A. Lotsch, S, Hachigonta, M. Mdoka, L. Unganai, F. Lucio, D. Kamdonyo and M. Muchinda (2009) Growing-season rainfall and scenarios of future change in southeast Africa: implications for cultivating maize. Climate Research, 40,

11 Unganai, S. Leonard and Amon Murwira (2011), Optimising rainfed agriculture as a climate change adaptation strategy in southeast Zimbabwe. In Eds. Mapaurem, I., B.J. Mhango and D.K. Mulenga, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change, RAEIN-Africa, Windhoek. Wani, S.P., J. Rockstrom and T. Oweis (eds), (2009) Rainfed Agriculture: Unlocking the Potential. Wallingford, UK.pp: