Natural Products Trade Barometer

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1 Natural Products Trade Barometer 2015 The Castrol Global Trade Barometer provides a detailed and pragmatic view of what is mined, made and moved internationally to support decision-making based on what is really happening on the ground 1 Natural Products Trade Barometer

2 Ambitious nations reaping rewards The Natural Products Trade Barometer is a crucial measure of trade in global commodities. It is a key indicator of the core strength of an economy and gives an insight into consumer demand, as it comprises products needed for feeding, clothing and building for a population. The barometer comprises all agricultural trade, such as plants, vegetables, animal products, textiles, rubber and ceramics. The barometer is part of the Castrol Global Trade Barometer (CGTB). In contrast to trade forecasts based on the drivers of GDP, the CGTB is based on the key drivers of global trade itself, giving us deep, accurate and actionable insight into the nuances of global trade in the near term. By taking into account trade trends, relevant macroeconomic and market influences, and the effect of the business environment on trade, we are able to give a pragmatic view providing market intelligence to support decision-making based on what is really happening on the ground. As it is based on agriculture, which requires fertile climates, the Natural Products Trade Barometer gives us insights into many emerging and under-developed markets that may not be large-scale manufacturers and could be less dominant in other areas of the CGTB. The barometer shows how these economies are working to scale the value chain and become producers and exporters. The nations in this barometer have a huge amount of influence over global food supply, are strong in natural resources and the necessary techniques, and have a comparative advantage over many established countries. The results suggest that demand in developing economies is rapidly increasing, due to high rates of population and income growth as well as increased urbanisation and an expanding middle class. To find out more, please download the full report at Trend one: Cultivating growth China remains top of the table of natural products trading nations (figure 1) with a strong forecast rate of growth, 6.79% compared with 5.59% in our last five year forecast. Brazil has made its way into the top ten natural products trading nations (figure 1) at the expense of Belgium. However, this is not indicative of the overall performance of European nations. Germany sits in third place while France is fourth. The Netherlands, Spain and the UK also perform well. The Netherlands continues to climb the rankings. In 2001 it was ninth, by 2012 it ranked sixth and this forecast it appears fifth in the top ten natural products trading nations (figure 1). The forecast indicates the Netherlands is set to fortify its position as a key distributor of natural products across the globe. 2 Natural Products Trade Barometer

3 Figure 1 Reaping rewards: Top ten fastest growing exporters by 2014 value 1 China $528.73bn 2 US $394.97bn 3 Germany $288.39bn 4 France $184.59bn 5 Netherlands $170.63bn 6 Italy $160.64bn 7 Japan $132.93bn 8 Spain $122.40bn 9 UK $121.35bn 10 Brazil $105.31bn 3 Natural Products Trade Barometer

Trend two: Emerging economies branching out Figure 2 Growing at speed: Top ten fastest growing natural products trading nations by CAGR*

highlighting the extent of their dominance in this sector.

This reflects their growing capacity to produce and export food, clothing, natural products and construction as well as a growing demand for

Brazil, Indonesia and Thailand have the fastest annualised growth rate of the top ten natural products exporters by 2014 value.

Brazil, for example, would displace the Netherlands and begin to challenge Germany.

competitive advantage. The Asia-Pacific region in general is beginning to show its potential future dominance in the natural products sectors.

4 Trend two: Emerging economies branching out Figure 2 Growing at speed: Top ten fastest growing natural products trading nations by CAGR* The top three exporters by value China (first), US (second), Germany (third) have significantly higher values than other nations, highlighting the extent of their dominance in this sector. However, the fastest rates of growth in the Natural Products Trade Barometer are predominantly emerging economies, albeit from a low base. This reflects their growing capacity to produce and export food, clothing, natural products and construction as well as a growing demand for these products across the globe. Brazil, Indonesia and Thailand have the fastest annualised growth rate of the top ten natural products exporters by 2014 value. If these rates of growth are realised, it is likely that they will become major players by Brazil, for example, would displace the Netherlands and begin to challenge Germany. Vietnam and Iraq have switched positions (figure 2) since the last forecast which, given the size of the market in Vietnam, is particularly impressive. However, its geographic position, access to cheap labour, and ongoing refinement of trade conditions are all helping strengthen Vietnam s competitive advantage. The Asia-Pacific region in general is beginning to show its potential future dominance in the natural products sectors. This is demonstrated by India and South Korea displacing South Africa and Egypt. There is also significant movement at the bottom of the table of fastest growing natural products trading nations (figure 2). Only Thailand remains from the last forecast due to its strengthening of skills, infrastructure and its close relationship with China. 2 Nigeria 9.06% 4 Indonesia 8.85% 6 Algeria 8.25% 1 Vietnam 9.48% 3 Iraq 9.05% 5 Malaysia 8.45% 7 South Korea 8.18% 8 Thailand 8.16% 9 Australia 8.12% 10 India 8.10% * CAGR = annualised growth over five years Natural Products Trade Barometer

5 Trend three: Hungry populations France appeared third in the rankings of top ten natural products importers by 2014 value in the last CGTB. In this latest forecast, China has taken the top spot, displacing France to fourth place (figure 5). This is likely to be the result of China s ever increasing demand for food and clothing for its large population. Six of the G7, plus China, the Netherlands, Russia and Spain, appear in the table of top 10 natural products importers (figure 5) demonstrating that they are not self-sufficient in food and clothing and must rely on imports from other countries. Clothing continues to be a key driver in the table of top ten natural products exports by country, accounting for five of the top ten (figure 3). China s role in global natural products trade is crucial here: it features six times. It features six times in the top ten exports by country rankings (figure 3). Although China is increasingly influential in high-end manufacturing, this shows that demand for its cheaper produce is still very high. The US and China dominate the rankings for top ten natural products imports by country (figure 6) comprising eight of the top ten. This is likely to be the result of their high demand populations. Germany also occupies a central place for its imports of tyres (crucial for its booming automotive exports) and is the only European nation to feature. 5 Natural Products Trade Barometer

6 Figure 3 Producing the goods: Top ten natural products exports by country by 2014 value 9 China $16.30bn 10 China $15.89bn 8 Malaysia $19.08bn 3 US $27.13bn 6 China $21.33bn 2 China $28.07bn 5 Brazil $22.95bn 4 China $23.88bn 7 Indonesia $19.38bn 1 China $32.85bn 1 Jerseys, pullovers, cardigans, knit or crochet 2 Womens, girls suits, jacket, dress, skirt, woven 3 Soya beans 4 Footwear, with outer sole, upper rubber or plastic 5 Soya beans 6 Footwear with uppers of leather 7 Palm oil and its fractions, not chemically modified 8 Palm oil and its fractions, not chemically modified 9 New pneumatic tyres, of rubber 10 Mens or boys suits, jackets, trousers not knit 6 Natural Products Trade Barometer

7 Figure 4 Exporting success: Top ten natural products exporters by 2014 value Figure 5 Consuming natural products: Top ten natural products importers by 2014 value 1 China $401.15bn 2 US $160.89bn 3 Germany $116.52bn 4 Netherlands $84.85bn 5 Brazil $83.05bn 6 France $78.60bn 7 Italy $74.04bn 8 Indonesia 68.90bn 9 Spain $57.65bn 10 Thailand $57.57bn $234.08bn US 1 $171.87bn Germany 2 $127.57bn China 3 $105.99bn France 4 $104.12bn Japan 5 $92.07bn UK 6 $86.61bn Italy 7 $85.78bn Netherlands 8 $67.49bn Russia 9 $64.75bn Spain 10 7 Natural Products Trade Barometer

8 Figure 6 Bringing in growth: Top ten natural products imports by country by 2014 value Soya beans $36.62bn China 1 New pneumatic tyres, of rubber $15.26bn US 2 Jerseys, pullovers, cardigans, knit or crochet $11.53bn US 3 Natural rubber and gums, in primary form, plates $11.35bn China 4 Footwear with uppers of leather $9.65bn US 5 New pneumatic tyres, of rubber $9.43bn Germany 6 Palm oil and its fractions, not chemically modified $9.12bn India 7 T-shirts, singlets and other vests, knit or crochet $7.65bn US 8 Womens, girls suit, dress, skirt, knit or crochet $7.48bn US 9 Palm oil and its fractions, not chemically modified $7.45bn China 10 8 Natural Products Trade Barometer

9 Castrol eye view: Growing relationships Agriculture plays a key role in Brazil s economy and the country is a leading producer of agricultural commodities. In particular, Brazil is now one of the world s top soybean exporters, with forecast growth for soya beans at almost 9% annually for the next five years. China is currently the largest importer of Brazil s agricultural products, and the Chinese market is vital for for Brazilian commodity exporters. China s reduction of croplands and a growing population have also resulted in a rising demand for soybeans, and it now imports around half the world s exported soy. This significant global bilateral trade link is expected to continue to grow in coming years and may even surpass the historic soy trade link between the US and Japan. Overall picture: Natural products trade growth The outlook has improved since the last Natural Products Trade Barometer, with annualised growth forecast to improve from 4.9% to 6.3% over the next five years. In growth terms, natural product sectors demonstrate the most stability in the short and medium term, with year-on-year growth rates of over 3% from , and significantly higher rates in the following years. This stability is largely a result of assured demand for imports from the world s more developed nations which benefit from lower costs of production in developing economies. The demand for natural products is predominantly met by Asian nations, which are showing remarkably strong rates of growth. Infrastructure in Asia s emerging economies will be a priority if they are to cope with burgeoning import and export demand. However, strong forecasts in this crucial sector reflect the already rapidly improving infrastructural capabilities of developing nations. 9 Natural Products Trade Barometer

10 About the Castrol Global Trade Barometer The Castrol Global Trade Barometer (CGTB) and its sub-barometers are constructed from the sectoral trade flows between the world s 50 largest trading nations. The CGTB is an aggregate barometer of all trade across all sectors. Each sub-barometer measures the trade flows between countries for a particular sectoral grouping. The Natural Products Trade Barometer measures how trade and trade growth in goods has changed up to the end of the last quarter. It is also a forecast of how that barometer is expected to change over the next five years on a rolling basis, with the next four quarters forecast on a quarterly basis, and the subsequent four years forecast on an annual basis. In contrast to trade forecasts based on the drivers of GDP, the CGTB is built upon the key drivers of global trade itself, including trade trends, relevant macroeconomic and market influences (such as GDP, oil prices, inflation and foreign direct investment), and the effect of the business environment on trade (such as regulation, demographics and access to capital and finance). This gives us deep, accurate and actionable insight into the nuances of global trade in the near term. By taking into account the drivers of global trade we are able to give a pragmatic view providing market intelligence to support decision-making based on what is really happening on the ground. The Natural Products Trade Barometer is a crucial measure of trade in global commodities. It comprises all agricultural trade, such as plants, vegetables, animal products, textiles, rubber and ceramics. The forecasts within the CGTB are based on investment grade data covering 200 countries and 10,000 sectors worldwide. The data is interpolated from UN Comtrade, IMF, ITC and country statistical office data. Forecasts for annual and annualised growth are based on 20 parameters that cover short, medium and long-term drivers of trade. Data for these parameters is taken from international sources including Haver Analytics, Bloomberg, UNCTAD, WTO, IMF, ILO and the World Bank. The barometer is independent of political and behavioural factors, except as priced in by markets. 10 Natural Products Trade Barometer

11 Overall More information The Castrol Global Trade Barometer is designed to increase the understanding of global trade and its impacts on your industry. If you have any questions about the ideas presented in the report and would like to meet with a Castrol representative, please contact daniel.davies2@uk.bp.com ( ). This report is one of a series, which tracks the performance of global trade and provide a regular five-year forecast of future trade patterns. Further details can be found at Media enquiries The Castrol Global Trade Barometer is designed to increase the understanding of global trade and its impacts on your industry. If you have any questions about the ideas presented in the report and would like to meet with a Castrol representative, please contact: daniel.davies2@uk.bp.com ( ). Questions on data Castrol regrets it is unable to deal with enquiries about the data in the Castrol Global Trade Barometer. Quoting from the barometer Publishers are welcome to quote from this barometer provided that they attribute the source to the Castrol Global Trade Barometer. However, where extensive reproduction of tables and/or charts is planned, permission must first be obtained. Acknowledgements Report content Man Bites Dog Design Pixeldot Legal Notice Whilst this report has been prepared in good faith, no warranty or representation, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy or completeness. The information given in this report is of a general nature. It is not intended to amount to, and should not be relied on as being, commercial, economic or professional advice for any specific purpose, issue or transaction. No liability is accepted for any such reliance. This report contains forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events, and depend on circumstances, that will or may occur in the future. Actual results may differ depending on a variety of factors, including trade and shipping patterns, product supply, demand and pricing, political stability, general economic conditions, legal and regulatory developments, availability of new technologies, natural disasters and adverse weather conditions, wars and acts of terrorism or sabotage, and many other factors. Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which such statement is made and we undertake no obligation to correct or update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Castrol, the Castrol logo and related marks are trademarks of Castrol Limited. Produced by Castrol Limited. Registered in England & Wales, no Registered office: Wakefield House, Pipers Way, Swindon, Wiltshire, SN3 1RE, United Kingdom Castrol Limited. All rights reserved. The Castrol Global Trade Barometer is based on methodology and data provided by our specialist trade economist partner. This report should therefore be considered independent from, and not necessarily consistent with, the BP Energy Outlook.

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