Green Urbanization in Asia. Guanghua Wan Asian Development Bank

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1 Green Urbanization in Asia Guanghua Wan Asian Development Bank

2 Main Messages Asia s urbanization is unprecedented & unique in several aspects leading to enormous challenges, including environmental degradation But urbanization can help! To ensure a win-win scenario, green urbanization policies shall exploit unique features of Asia s urbanization and late comer s advantage

3 Increase in Urban Population (million) Asia s urbanization is unprecedented Increase in Urban Population in Asia and the Pacific (millions) billion 1.06 billion Bangladesh Pakistan Indonesia India China, People's Rep. of Rest of Asia & Pacific Source: ADB estimates using UN(2012).

4 Unique feature 1: very fast speed Number of Years from about 10% to 50% of Urbanization Rate Latin America and Caribbean North America Europe 10% 210 years 49% 105 years 9% 51% 150 years 12% 51% Asia and the Pacific 11% 95 years 51% Viet Nam Indonesia Lao PDR Bhutan China, People's Rep. of 90 years 12% 50% 12% 65 years 54% 60 years 10% 52% 10% 55 years 51% 11% 61 years 51% Source: ADB estimates using Bairoch (2008) and UN(2012).

5 Mumbai Kolkata Karachi Lagos Shenzhen Seoul/Incheon Taipei,China Chennai Bogota Shanghai Lima Beijing Delhi Kinshasa Manila Tehran Jakarta Tianjin Bangalore Ho Chi Minh City Cairo Baghdad Shenyang Hyderabad São Paulo Density (person/m 2 ) Unique feature 2: highest densities in the world Top 25 World's Cities Ranked by Density, Asia & the Pacific (17/25) Africa Europe Latin America & Caribbean Middle East & North Africa Source:

6 Unique feature 3: many megacities Megacities, 2010 ASIA: 12/23 Note: The circles indicate population sizes ranging from (10 million) to (39 million). The circles do not reflect the physical extents of the cities and any overlap between them merely reflects their relative population sizes and not any official acceptance or endorsement of any geographical sovereignty. Source: UN (2012).

7 Level of Urbanization (%) Unique feature 4: low starting base 100 Level of Urbanization by Region (%) % 43% 67% 63% Source: ADB estimates using Bairoch (2008) and UN(2012).

8 Ratio of Population in Largest Cities over Urban Population (%) Unique feature 5: the largest cities are likely to grow bigger Urban Primacy (%, 2009) Asia Non-Asia Source: ADB estimates using UN(2012).

9 thus more and bigger megacities are emerging Megacities, 2025 ASIA: 21/37 Note: The circles indicate population sizes ranging from (10 million) to (39 million). The circles do not reflect the physical extents of the cities and any overlap between them merely reflects their relative population sizes and not any official acceptance or endorsement of any geographical sovereignty. Source: UN (2012).

10 Unprecedented urbanization poses enormous challenges already serious Growing inequalities Rising urban crimes Expansion of slums Above all, environmental degradation Pollution Vulnerability to flooding

11 Ahwaz Ulaanbaatar Sanandaj Ludhiana Kermanshah Yasouj Kanpur Delhi Lucknow Uromiyeh Qom Indore Khoramabad Agra Al Ain Lanzhou Kolkata Van Xining Urumqi Faridabad Greater Cairo Mexicali Jabalpur Mumbai Dhanbad Ilam Allahabad Bushehr Kerman Jinan Beijing Patna Sarajevo Abu Dhabi Meerut Xi'an Jaipur Qazvin Medan Chengdu Hefei Shenyang Taiyuan Varanasi Chongqing Wuhan Esfahan Shijiazhuang Konya Kars Hamedan Arak Harbin Tianjin Nanjing Denizli PM 10 Level (micrograms/cubic meter) 67% of Asian (vs. 11% Non-Asian) cities fail to meet EU air quality standard 400 Cities with PM 10 above 100 ug/m 3 ( ) Asia and the Pacific (34/57) Non-Asia and the Pacific EU standard Source: WHO (2012).

12 CO 2 emissions grow fast in Asia Growth of Per Capita CO 2 Emissions over (%) % Asia 18% Non-Asia Source: ADB estimates using World Bank (2012).

13 Environment may degrade further with growth Asia s Environmental Kuznets Curve 2010=$6,107 Peak=$40, Source: ADB estimates using World Bank (2012). GDP per capita (in 2005 PPP)

14 CO2 emissions (tons/capita) CO 2 emissions may triple under the business-as-usual scenario Projected CO2 emissions based on latest EKC Source: ADB estimates using World Bank (2012).

15 Population at Risk (million) Vulnerability will rise with urbanization Coastal Flooding Inland Flooding M M M M East Asia South Asia Central and West Asia Southeast Asia Source: Balk and Montgomery (2012).

16 Unique features of Asian urbanization make challenges more serious... Low level = a long way to go Fast speed = little time to adjust or learn More & bigger megacities = hard to manage More slums = higher vulnerability

17 But, can urban agglomeration help? Service sector pollutes less Manufacturers relocate (e.g., decline manu.) Efficient provision of infrastructure and services Innovation and higher labor productivity Nurture middle class and property owners And...

18 Reduction in Population (million) Urbanization leads to lower fertility Reduction in Projected Population due to Urbanization

19 and more human capital Sacrifice Growth Sacrifice Income Pay Higher Taxes Support Regulation Population Subgroups By educational attainment No formal education Less than Secondary Education Secondary Education At least Some University Education World Asia

20 The environmental impacts of urbanization The growth impact may be negative The composition effect is positive Technical effect is also positive

21 CO2 emissions (mt/capita) Environment-Urbanization relation has improved over time Environment-Urbanization Curves PM s CO s 2000s 2000s Level of Urbanization (%) Level of Urbanization (%) pm10hat1_u pm10hat2_u co2hat1_u 2000s Source: ADB estimates.

22 Green urbanization can help shift the curves further Megacities with satellite cities: ToD, BRT, green/compact/eco- cities concepts Exploit late comer advantage: Leapfrog technology by import or R&D; Timely introduction of regulations: pollution/emission pricing, carbon tax or cap & trade, reduce subsidies, increasing block tariffs,

23 Conclusions It is counter-productive to contain urbanization, even for environmental concerns But, urbanization must be steered into a green path that exploits own unique features Asia can achieve green urbanization!

24 Thank You