Incorporating Land Use and Greenhouse Gases Emissions into the GTAP Data Base. Presented by Huey-Lin Lee

Transcription

1 Incorporating Land Use and Greenhouse Gases Emissions into the GTAP Data Base Presented by Huey-Lin Lee

2 GTAP Land Use and GHG Data (1) VFM( AEZ_Land, PROD_COMM, REG) AEZ_Land = {18 AEZs} Global Land Cover Area Data 18 AEZs 7 land cover types Global Cropland Data Harvested area and yield 18 AEZs 19 crop types Global Timberland Area Data 18 AEZs Up to 14 tree types year cohorts of trees 2

3 GTAP Land Use and GHG Data (2) Global CO 2 Emissions from Combustion Sectoral Global forest carbon stock 18 AEZs Up to 14 tree types year cohorts of trees Global CH 4, N 2 O, Fluorinated Gases Emissions Sectoral Global Cropland Data Harvested area and yield 18 AEZs 19 crop types Global Timberland Area Data 18 AEZs Up to 14 tree types year cohorts of trees 3

4 Land Use: The AEZ concept IIASA/FAO Pioneer Project on Agroecological Zoning Function of temperature (T) and adequate soil moisture (S) LGP = F(T, S) Soil moisture: a function of rainfall, soil type, topography,, etc. We Adopted the AEZ Concept Developed by IIASA/FAO. 4

5 VFM( AEZ_Land, SEC, REG) Land use types in region r AEZs Crop 1. Crop N Livestock 1. Livestock H Forest 1. Forest V AEZ 1... AEZ M Total 5

6 Availability of Agriculture AEZ Land Data Data provider: Dr. Navin Ramancutty, University of Wisconsin- Madison, SAGE 18 agro-ecological zones (AEZs) for 160 countries 6 AEZ: by FAO definition, 0.5 degree GIS map 3 climate zones: boreal, temperate, tropical 19 crop types Acreage data by AEZ Yield by AEZ estimated based on FAO data 6

7 The 18-AEZ Map 7

8 LGP v.s. AEZ LGP in days Moisture regime Climate zone GTAP class 0-59 Arid Tropical AEZ1 Temperate AEZ7 Boreal AEZ Dry semi-arid Tropical AEZ2 Temperate AEZ8 Boreal AEZ Moist semi-arid Tropical AEZ3 Temperate AEZ9 Boreal AEZ Sub-humid Tropical AEZ4 Temperate AEZ10 Boreal AEZ Humid; Tropical AEZ5 Temperate AEZ11 Boreal AEZ17 >300 days Humid; year-round growing season Tropical AEZ6 Temperate AEZ12 Boreal AEZ18 8

9 SAGE s 18 crops v.s. GTAP s 8 crop sectors SAGE No. SAGE code GTAP No. GTAP code Description 1 barley 3 gro Cereals grain n.e.c. 2 cassava 4 v_f Vegetables, fruit, nuts 3 cotton 7 pfb Plant-based fibres 4 groundnuts 5 osd Oil seeds 5 maize 3 gro Cereals grain n.e.c. 6 millet 3 gro Cereals grain n.e.c. 7 oilpalm 5 osd Oil seeds 8 others 8 ocr Crops n.e.c. 9 potato 4 v_f Vegetables, fruit, nuts 10 pulses 4 v_f Vegetables, fruit, nuts 11 rape 5 osd Oil seeds 12 rice 1 pdr Paddy rice 13 rye 3 gro Cereals grain n.e.c. 14 sorghum 3 gro Cereals grain n.e.c. 15 soy 5 osd Oil seeds 16 sugar beet 6 c_b Sugar cane, sugar beet 17 sugar cane 6 c_b Sugar cane, sugar beet 18 sunflower seeds 5 osd Oil seeds 19 wheat 2 wht Wheat 9

10 Cropland Use (Harvested Area): China, Cropland use - harvested area (1000ha) Paddy rice Wheat Cereal grains Vegetables/fruits/nuts Oil seeds Sugar cane/beet Plant-based fibres Crops N.E.C AEZ1 AEZ3 AEZ5 AEZ7 AEZ9 AEZ11 AEZ13 AEZ15 AEZ17 Vegetables/fruits/nuts Paddy rice Plant-based fibres 10

11 Availability of Timberland Data Data Provider: Dr. Brent Sohngen, Ohio State University 18 AEZs for GTAP s 215 world regions Same AEZ map as SAGE s 3 Species: Coniferous, Broadleaf, Mixed Acreage, Timberland Rent Data: by management type year Cohorts of Trees Forest Carbon Stock 11

12 U.S. Coniferous Timberland Area: AEZ by Vintage 7000 U.S. coniferous timberland area (1000ha) AGE_10 2 AGE_20 3 AGE_30 4 AGE_40 5 AGE_50 6 AGE_60 7 AGE_70 8 AGE_80 9 AGE_90 10 AGE_ AGE_100 1 AEZ1 3 AEZ3 5 AEZ5 7 AEZ7 9 AEZ9 11 AEZ11 13 AEZ13 15 AEZ15 17 AEZ17 7 AGE_70 4 AGE_40 1 AGE_10 12

13 U.S. All-species Timberland Area: AEZ by Management Types U.S. timberland area (1000ha) M1 2 M2 3 M3 4 M4 5 M5 6 M6 7 M7 8 M8 9 M9 10 M10 11 M11 12 M12 13 M13 14 M14 13 M AEZ1 3 AEZ3 5 AEZ5 7 AEZ7 9 AEZ9 11 AEZ11 13 AEZ13 15 AEZ15 17 AEZ17 1 M1 3 M3 11 M11 9 M9 7 M7 5 M5 13

14 GTAP Crop Sector Land Rent: World GTAP crop sectors land rent (2001 USD, million) pdr 2 wht 3 gro v_f osd 6 c_b 7 pfb 8 ocr 0 1 AEZ1 3 AEZ3 5 AEZ5 7 AEZ7 9 AEZ9 11 AEZ11 13 AEZ13 15 AEZ15 7 AEZ17 1 pdr 4 v_f 7 pfb 14

15 GTAP Livestock Sector Land Rent: World 4000 GTAP livestock sector land rent (2001 USD, million) ctl 10 oap 11 rmk 12 wol AEZ1 3 AEZ3 5 AEZ5 7 AEZ7 9 AEZ9 11 AEZ11 13 AEZ13 15 AEZ15 17 AEZ17 9 ctl 15

16 GTAP Forest Sector Land Rent: World GTAP forest sector land rent (2001 USD, million) 13 frs frs 16 1 AEZ1 2 AEZ2 3 AEZ3 4 AEZ4 5 AEZ5 6 AEZ6 7 AEZ7 8 AEZ8 9 AEZ9 10 AEZ10 11 AEZ11 12 AEZ12 13 AEZ13 14 AEZ14 15 AEZ15 16 AEZ16 17 AEZ17 18 AEZ18

17 Greenhouse Gases Emissions Data CO 2 emissions: Tier 1 method of the revised 1996 IPCC Guideline Special treatment for non-emitting activities Country-specific sectoral feedstock use ratios Energy transformation: e.g., coal used to produce coal products CH 4, N 2 O, and F-gases emissions: IPCC Tier 1 and Tier 2 methods Mapping emissions sources to GTAP sector activities 17

18 CO 2 Emissions Data: Share of World Total, by Activity and Fuel GTAP sectors Coal Crude oil Natural gas Petroleum products Gas Activity Total Petroleum, coal products Chemical, rubber, Mineral products n.e.c Ferrous metals Electricity Trade Transport n.e.c Water transport Air Transport Household consumption Other sectors Fuel Total

19 CO 2 Emissions Intensity: Selective Big Emitting Countries China 3.44 Country India Canada United States 0.71 United Kingdom 0.47 Germany 0.42 Japan Emission intensity (Tg/Million USD) 19

20 Mapping of CH 4 Emission Sources to GTAP Sectors Sources of CH 4 emissions Activities/drivers Mapping to GTAP sectors Stationary Sources Households burning wood Households Mobile Sources Driving (vehicles running on Households and transport sector gasoline/diesel fuel) Coal Mining Coal production "15 COL": coal sector Natural Gas Systems Natural Gas production "17 GAS": natural gas sector (exploitation/mining) Petroleum Systems Crude Oil production "16 OIL": crude oil sector (exploitation/mining) Waste Water treatment Sanitary service sector output "56 OSG": sanitary service sector Rice Cultivation Harvested area of flooded rice "1 PDR": paddy rice sector paddies Enteric Fermentation Population of ruminants "9 CTL": cattle, horses, sheep sectors "11 RMK": dairy sector Ag Residue/Biomass Burning Crop production "1 PDR": paddy rice "2 WHT": wheat "3 GRO": other grains "6 C_B": sugar cane and beet Manure Management Population of animals "9 CTL", "10 OAP","11 RMK" Land-fills Sanitary service sector output "56 OSG": sanitary service sector 20

21 Mapping of N 2 O Emission Sources to GTAP Sectors Sources of N 2 O Activities/drivers Mapping to GTAP sectors emissions Stationary Sources Fuel combustion All sectors that burn fuels Mobile Sources Driving (vehicles running Households and transport sector on gasoline/diesel fuel) Industrial Process Chemical production "33 CRP : chemicals sector Ag. Soils Management Agriculture production GTAP sector 1 to 8 (crop sectors) (fertilizer application) Manure Management Population of animals "9 CTL : cattle, horse, sheep sector "10 OAP : other animals sector "11 RMK : dairy sector Ag. Residue Burning Crop production "1 PDR : paddy rice sector "2 WHT : wheat sector "3 GRO : other grains sector "6 C_B : sugar cane and beet Human Sewage Sanitary service output "56 OSG : sanitary service sector 21

22 Mapping of F-gases Emission Sources to GTAP Sectors F-gases HFC-134a CF4 HFC-23 SF6 A. Emissions are released due to use of "inputs" which contain ODS substitutes Emissions of F-gases due to use of refrigeration application 1 Refrigeration/AC (Gg HFC-134a Eq) HH; IND's Emissions of F-gases due to use of ODS substitutes as INPUTs to industrial production 2 Aerosols (MDI) (Gg HFC-134a Eq) 33 crp 3 Aerosols (Non-MDI) (Gg HFC-134a Eq) 33 crp 4 Solvents (Gg HFC-134a Eq) 33 crp 5 Foams (Gg HFC-134a Eq) 33 crp 6 Fire Extinguishing (Gg HFC-134a Eq) 33 crp 7 Semiconductors 8 CF4 (PFC) (Gg CF4 Eq) 40 ele 9 C2F6 (PFC) (Gg CF4 Eq) 40 ele 10 C3F8 (PFC) (Gg CF4 Eq) 40 ele 11 NF3 (PFC) (Gg CF4 Eq) 40 ele 12 HFC-23 (Gg CF4 Eq) 40 ele 13 SF6 (Gg CF4 Eq) 40 ele 16 Magnesium (Gg SF6 Eq) 36 nfm 17 Electric Trans. & Dist. (Gg SF6 Eq) 43 ely 18 Electric GIS Manufact. (Gg SF6 Eq) B. Emissions are proportional to sectoral "output". Emissions of F-gases as by-product of industrial production 14 HCFC-22 Production (Gg HFC-23 Eq) 33 crp 15 Aluminum (Gg CF4 Eq) 36 nfm 22

23 Region-specific Sectoral Shares of CH 4 Emissions: % Sectoral Shares of CH4 emissions (1995), by country Other sectors Sanitary service Paddy rice Dairy farm Other Animals Cattle/horses/sheep Nat. gas Coal 0 China Former Soviet Union U.S. India Brazil 23

24 Region-specific Sectoral Shares of N 2 O Emissions: Sectoral shares of N2O emissions (1995) Other sectors 90 Chemicals 80 Crops N.E.C % Oil seeds Vegetables/fruits/nuts Cereal grains Wheat Paddy rice 10 0 China U.S. India Brazil Former Soviet Union 24

25 U.S. All-species Timberland CO 2 Stock Data: AEZ by Age 5000 U.S. forest CO2 storage (million metric ton) AGE_10 2 AGE_20 3 AGE_30 4 AGE_40 5 AGE_50 6 AGE_60 7 AGE_70 8 AGE_80 9 AGE_90 10 AGE_ AGE_ AEZ1 2 AEZ2 3 AEZ3 4 AEZ4 5 AEZ5 6 AEZ6 7 AEZ7 8 AEZ8 9 AEZ9 10 AEZ10 11 AEZ11 12 AEZ12 13 AEZ13 14 AEZ14 5 AEZ15 6 AEZ16 AEZ17 AEZ18 7 AGE_70 5 AGE_50 3 AGE_30 1 AGE_10 25

26 GTAP Project on Developing Land-use and GHG Emissions Data for use in a Computable General Equilibrium Framework Suggestions and Comments?!