Mudanças Climáticas Biodiversidade e Biogeoquímica. Jean Pierre Ometto (CCST/INPE) Mercedes Bustamante (UnB) Luiz A Martinelli (CENA/USP

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1 Mudanças Climáticas Biodiversidade e Biogeoquímica Jean Pierre Ometto (CCST/INPE) Mercedes Bustamante (UnB) Luiz A Martinelli (CENA/USP

Temas integradores da Conferência Observações e atribuição das mudanças climáticas Segurança alimentar Segurança hídrica Segurança energética Saúde Biodiversidade Desastres Naturais Monitoramento de

2 Temas integradores da Conferência Observações e atribuição das mudanças climáticas Segurança alimentar Segurança hídrica Segurança energética Saúde Biodiversidade Desastres Naturais Monitoramento de Gases de Efeito Estufa Interfaces Ciência e Políticas Públicas em Mudanças Climáticas Zonas Costeiras e Oceanos Amazônia e REDD Modelagem do Sistema Terrestre Cenários climáticos para estudos de Impactos-Vulnerabilidade-Adaptação (IVA) Compartilhar realizações, sabedoria, conhecimento sentido de uma rede! M.Silva

3 Main Anthropogenic Drivers threaten tropical Biodiversity Habitat destruction and fragmentation, over-exploitation, invasive species Network and ecosystem functioning level. Loss of species can results in the loss of structure and functioning (Morris, 2010). Ecological functioning and ecosystem services are affected by the replacement of biological diverse system by mono species systems. Effects predicted in hydrological cylce, carbon stocks and flow, nitrogen dynamic, plant productivity, soil fertility, among others. Climate change can produce direct (change in temperature and precipitation patterns) and indirect effect on biodiversity and ecosystem services, including biogeochemical processes (for instance change in invasive species dynamic, and fire regime);

4 Climate and Biodiversity distribution Temperature and Precipitation as key factors for species distribution and, in general, abundance. Projected future annual average temperature and precipitation Temp. (C) RCP 4.5 PPT(mm) RCP 4.5

and models; vertical axis on left), compared with speeds at which temperatures are

trees, plants, mammals, plantfeeding insects (median not estimated), and freshwater

5 Figure SPM.5 Maximum speeds at which species can move across landscapes (based on observations and models; vertical axis on left), compared with speeds at which temperatures are projected to move across landscapes (climate velocities for temperature; vertical axis on right). Human interventions, such as transport or habitat fragmentation, can greatly increase or decrease speeds of movement. White boxes with black bars indicate ranges and medians of maximum movement speeds for trees, plants, mammals, plantfeeding insects (median not estimated), and freshwater mollusks. For RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 for , horizontal lines show climate velocity for the global-land-area average and for large flat regions. Species with maximum speeds below each line are expected to be unable to track warming in the absence of human intervention. [Figure 4-5]. IPCC AR%

6 Resourcers particioning

7 Specie diversity by major groups

9 Endemism and Hotspots Hotspots => at least 1,500 vascular plants as endemics and hosting 30% or less of its original natural vegetation Biodiversity Threatened Regions

10 Biodiversity Hotspots de High level of Endemism and fast loss of habitats

11 Wilderness areas Watson et al., 2016 (A) Historic (gray) and current (green) extent of all wilderness area, as well as the area lost since the early 1990s (red) across the world s terrestrial biomes. (B) The wilderness area lost (red) and protected (gray) during

Highly bio-diverse countries Latin America and the Caribbean is the region with the biggest number of highly diverse countries 50% of the tropical forests 33% of the

12 Highly bio-diverse countries Latin America and the Caribbean is the region with the biggest number of highly diverse countries 50% of the tropical forests 33% of the mammals 35% of the reptiles 41% of birds species 50% of amphibious Among the 17 nation that host 70% of the intire planet biodiversity, Brazil is the most megadiverse

13 Some important threats for biodiversity in Brazil (INCT) Climate Change For the higher emission scenario (RCP 8,5) risk of changes in vegetation structure and forest impoverishment by the end of this century Increase in the extinction risk up to 16%, being South America the region with the highest susceptibility to the extinction. Extinction and changes in the distribution patters of native species, of cultural and nutritional value from Cerrado, shall cause socioeconomic impacts by Socioeconomic impacts also associated to reduction of pollinators already in 2030, for instance, native bee population at the Atlantic Forest region shall impact natural vegetation as well as agricultural production. Impact would worsen, reaching extinction of these insects by Biodiversity loss in the Brazilian coastal zones, in 2100 would impact food availability and regional ) (IPCC, 2013, Nobre etla l, 2015)

Vulnerable system Hierarchy Tipe Case Biomes Mata Atlântica Biodiversity hotspot Cerrado Biodiversity hotspot Caatinga Desertification / sensitivity Amazonia Savannization / sensitivity Ecosystems

14 Vulnerable system Hierarchy Tipe Case Biomes Mata Atlântica Biodiversity hotspot Cerrado Biodiversity hotspot Caatinga Desertification / sensitivity Amazonia Savannization / sensitivity Ecosystems High altitude High thermal sensitivity Marine and coastal Sea level rising Urban Heat waves Species Threatened High ecological sensitivity Amphibian High ecological sensitivity Corals High ecological sensitivity Plants, mammals, birds Shift south

15 Land use Change in the Brazilian Biomes Sala et al Science Biodiversity Scenarios (2100)

16 Mudanças Climáticas Biodiversidade e Biogeoquímica

17 Aquatic ecosystems responses to climatic changes in the semi- Arid region of Brazil (Caatinga) Adapted from F Roland

18 Compilred information in the different biomes Literature Review and Meta Analysis Data being compiled based on biome distribution. Non georrreferenced data was not considered

19 N stable isotopes (δ 15 N) Species in the same habitat but uptaking different sources of nitrogen N in vegetation (w/o legumes) N in disturbed vegetation (including legume)

20 Soil Carbon Emissions Cerrado IIIa Com Nacional Feeding Emissions calculation and modeling

21 Some further contribution DGVMs have, in general, a poor representation of the plant funtional triats diversity in the tropics. This project contributed to: Developping a data base on functinal traits and temporal series on fenological responses to climate change; On the understanding of the effects of deforestaiton on the biogeochemistry of Brazilian biomes: Example: Significant stocks of N and P are lost from the ecosystem with forest clearing and burning In the Amazon region, pasture grasses demand less N (grass N:P = 16), so the pasture remains P limited Secondary forest vegetation requires more N (N:P = 35), so the depletion of N stocks during the pasture phase results in N limitation during regrowth of the secondary forest following pasture abandonment Multiple burns accelerate the nutrient degradation process

Vegetation Type 2050: RCP4.5, LandUSE OFF, FIRE - OFF CCSM4 CSIRO-Mk-3-6-0 GFDL-ESM2M GISS-E2-R HadGEM2-ES IPSL-CM5A-LR MIROC5 MRI-CGCM3 NorESM1-M 1-Tropical evergreen 2-Tropical deciduous 3-Temp.

22 Vegetation Type 2050: RCP4.5, LandUSE OFF, FIRE - OFF CCSM4 CSIRO-Mk GFDL-ESM2M GISS-E2-R HadGEM2-ES IPSL-CM5A-LR MIROC5 MRI-CGCM3 NorESM1-M 1-Tropical evergreen 2-Tropical deciduous 3-Temp. evergreen broadleaf 4-Temp. evergreen conifer 5-Temp. deciduous 6-Boreal evergreen 7-Boreal deciduous 8-Mixed forest 9- Savanna 10-Grass. Steppe 11-Dense shrubland 12-Open shrubland 13-Tundra 14-Desert 15-Polar desert / rock / ice

Vegetation Type 2050: RCP4.5, LandUSE ON, FIRE - ON CCSM4 CSIRO-Mk-3-6-0 GFDL-ESM2M GISS-E2-R HadGEM2-ES IPSL-CM5A-LR MIROC5 MRI-CGCM3 NorESM1-M 1-Tropical evergreen 2-Tropical deciduous 3-Temp.

23 Vegetation Type 2050: RCP4.5, LandUSE ON, FIRE - ON CCSM4 CSIRO-Mk GFDL-ESM2M GISS-E2-R HadGEM2-ES IPSL-CM5A-LR MIROC5 MRI-CGCM3 NorESM1-M 1-Tropical evergreen 2-Tropical deciduous 3-Temp. evergreen broadleaf 4-Temp. evergreen conifer 5-Temp. deciduous 6-Boreal evergreen 7-Boreal deciduous 8-Mixed forest 9- Savanna 10-Grass. Steppe 11-Dense shrubland 12-Open shrubland 13-Tundra 14-Desert 15-Polar desert / rock / ice

24 Díaz et al. (2015) The IPBES conceptual framework connecting nature and people. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 14:1-16.

Climate modeling, INPE's projections for the 21st century, and the distribution of Brazilian biomes

National Institute for Space Research INPE Earth System Science Center CCST Climate modeling, INPE's projections for the 21st century, and the distribution of Brazilian biomes Gilvan Sampaio gilvan.sampaio@inpe.br