The Fate of the Amazon Forest in the 21 st Century

Transcription

1 Photo: Alexander Torrenegra The Fate of the Amazon Forest in the 21 st Century Carlos A. Nobre Center for Earth System Science National Institute for Space Research INPE, Brazil Microsoft FAPESP Environmental Science Workshop São Paulo, 11 November 2010

2 Agradecimentos Gilvan Sampaio Manoel Cardoso Marina Hirota Luiz Salazar Laura Borma Julia Reid Centro de Ciência do Sistema Terrestre Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais - INPE

3 Habitat Loss to 1990 Mediterranean Forests Temperate Grasslands & Woodlands Temperate Broadleaf Forest Tropical Dry Forest Tropical Grasslands Tropical Coniferous Forest Tropical Moist Forest Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Percent of habitat (biome) remaining

4 Global Changes and the Earth System: The Amazon as a Paradigm

5 The natural system in the Amazon at a glance... Largest contiguous tropical forest (over 6 million km 2 ) 10%-15% of the Earth s biodiversity 18% of fleshwater input into the global oceans Large heat source of the atmosphere (1 C to 2 C/day tropospheric heating rate during rainy season) Large carbon storage in the biomass ( 90 to 120 Gton C) The Amazon as a regional entity of the Earth System!

6 Km 2 /year Land use and cover change Projected deforestation scenarios for the Brazilian Amazon Annual Deforestation rate for the Brazilian Amazon Animated map from Arnaldo Carneiro Source: INPE ( CATTLE RANCHING SELECTIVE LOGGING INTENSIVE AGRICULTURE-SOY

7 Net profitability of current economic activities in the Amazon and versus the potential for REDD CATTLE SELECTIVE LOGGING US$ 20 a 70 per ha/year US$ 100 to 400 per ha/25- to 30-year cycle REDD SOYA US$ to per ha (at US$ 20 per ton C) US$ 100 to 200 per ha/year

8 Net Radiation (W m -2 ) Latent Heat flux (W m -2 ) Evapotranspiration seasonality in the Amazon tropical forest and savanna Source: Rocha (2004) Forest Savanna mm day -1 Cerrado s.s. SP Floresta trop RO Floresta trop Manaus Floresta trop Santarém Forest Savanna

9 Biomes of tropical South America and precipitation seasonality Biomes of South America Tropical Forest Savanna Shrubland Tropical Forest-Savanna Boundary Number of consecutive months with less than 50 mm rainfall Annual Rainfall The importance of rainfall seasonality (short dry season) for maintaining tropical forests all over Amazonia Sombroek 2001, Ambio

10 The Hypothesis of Amazonian Savannization Nobre et al. (1991) proposed that a post-deforestation climate in Southern Amazonia would be warmer, drier and with longer dry season, typical of the climate envelope of the tropical savanna (Cerrado) domain of Central South America. Savannization in this context is a statement on regional climate change and not intended to describe complex ecological processes of vegetation substitution.

11 Modeling Deforestation and Biogeography in Amazonia Current Biomes Post-deforestation 1 Tropical Forest 6 Savanna Nobre et al. 1991, J. Climate

12 Tipping points analysis framework Lenton et al "the levels at which the momentum for change becomes unstoppable Walsh (2007)

13 Biomes for South America. Forest Is the current Climate- Vegetation equilibrium in Amazonia the only stable equilibrium possible? After Olsen et al. (2001).

14 Diagrama esquemático simplificado do sub-modelo de ciclo de carbono proposto, apresentando os processos que influenciam em cada compartimento. T: temperatura; P: precipitação; w: água no solo; Vm: taxa de carboxilação da Rubisco; LAI: índice de área foliar; NPP: produtividade primária líquida; rc: resistência do dossel; E: evapotranspiração. Fonte: Lapola, CLIMATE VARIABLES BIOME TYPES T and P CLIMATE w NPP r c WATER BALANCE PHOTOSYNTHESIS V m LAI AUTOTROPHIC RESPIRATION E HETEROTROPHIC RESPIRATION BIOMES

15 CPTEC-INPE Potential Vegetation Model - PVM Impact of using the new fire parameterization in the biome estimates of the CPTEC Potential Vegetation Model: Major vegetation types: (1) broadleaf-evergreen trees (tropical forest), (2) broadleaf-deciduous trees (temperate forest) (3) broadleaf and needleleaf trees (mixed forest) (4) needleleaf-evergreen trees (boreal forest) (5) needleleaf-deciduous trees (larch), (6) broadleaf trees with groundcover (savanna) (7) groundcover only (prairie, steppes) (8) broadleaf shrubs with perennial groundcover (caatinga) (9) broadleaf shrubs with bare soil (semi-desert) (10) dwarf trees and shrubs with groundcover (tundra) (11) bare soil (desert) (13) ice. Accounting for fires corrected important differences between previous model estimates and reference data for the position of natural savannas in the tropics. In specific, large areas in India and SE Asia that were initially estimated as savannas are now corrected to dry forests. Oyama and Nobre, GRL, 2003; Oyaman and Nobre, J. Climate, 2004; Cardoso et al. (2007); Lapola et al., Proc. Braz. Acad. Sci., 2008; Cardoso et al., Biologica, 2009 ; Lapola et al., GBC, 2009 (accepted)

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17 Biome changing bi-stability in the Amazon Two Biome-Climate Equilibrium States found for South America Current potential vegetation Forest Savanna Second State Results of CPTEC-DBM Initial Conditions : desert -- current state (a) -- second state (b) Soil Moisture Rainfall anomalies Oyama and Nobre, 2003 GRL

18 What does it take to tip the equilibrium between the two stable states?

19 Ecosystems of Amazonia - environmental drivers of change Complex Earth System Models are needed to study all these interacting and simultaneous drivers LUCC Fire Climate Change Climate Extremes

20 Warming of 0.8 C in Amazonia (Victoria et al., J Climate); IPCC AR4: 3 C to > 5 C in 2100! Source: Greenpeace/Daniel Beltra Total deforested area (clear-cutting) is 730,000 km 2 in Brazilian Amazonia (18%) (INPE, 2008) GLOBAL WARMING Anthropogenic and Natural Drivers of Environmental Change in Amazonia DROUGHTS DEFORESTATION FOREST FIRES Droughts (e.g., 2005) can become frequent (Cox et al., 2008 Nature) Forest fire frequency (Nepstad et al., 2006)

21 Tipping points of the Earth System Application to Amazonia Tropical forest Savanna state triggered by climate change or deforestation Tipping points: temperature, rainfall and deforestation area Stability of savanna enhanced by increased droughts and fires Cardoso and Borma, 2010

22 What are the likely biome changes in Tropical South America due to a suite of environmental drivers of change? Environmental Drivers of Change Climate Change: CO 2,temperature, rainfall Land Cover Change: Deforestation, Forest Degradation Primary Drivers Droughts Forest Fires Secondary Drivers Short term (interannual to interdecadal) Long term (interdecadal to centennial) Secondarization Ecosystem Responses Changes in Species Composition Savannization/ forest dieback Tree Mortality x Tree Growth

23 LAND USE AND COVER CHANGE

24 What are the likely biome changes in Tropical South America due to LUCC scenarios? Environmental Drivers of Change Climate Change/ CO 2 Land Cover Change: Deforestation, Forest Degradation Primary Drivers Droughts Forest Fires Secondary Drivers Short term (interannual to interdecadal) Long term (interdecadal to centennial) Secondarization Ecosystem Responses Changes in Species Composition Savannization/ forest dieback Tree Mortality x Tree Growth

25 Deforestation only Post-Deforestation Equilibrium Potential Biomes Land cover scenario Post-deforestation equilibrium vegetation Sampaio et al. 2007

26 GLOBAL WARMING

27 What are the likely biome changes in Tropical South America due to Global Warming scenarios of climate change? Environmental Drivers of Change Climate Change: temperature, rainfall Land Cover Change: Deforastatio, Foresst Degradation Primary Drivers Droughts Forest Fires Secondary Drivers Short term (interannual to interdecadal) Long term (interdecadal to centennial) Secondarization Ecosystem Responses Changes in Species Composition Savannization/ forest dieback Tree Mortality x Tree Growth

28 Global climatic scenarios for South America Anomalies projections of temperature ( C/day) for South America for the period of (A2 Scenario) in relation to the base period of for 15 different global climatic models available through IPCC.

29 Fundamental Question and Main Conclusions Question: Are there tipping points in the Amazon that should not be crossed ever? Seasonality of rainfall as a critical parameter for tropical forests; the role of fire to set forest-savanna boundary Bi-stability of vegetation-climate equilibrium states in Amazonia (state 1: forest dominated; state 2: forest-savanna) Drivers of change: global warming, deforestation, droughts, fire Tipping points not to be crossed for maintenance of the Amazon forest: T Global Warming < 3 C (< 3.5 C in Amazonia) Total Deforested Area < 40%

30 Global climatic scenarios for South America Anomalies projections of precipitation (mm/day) for South America for the period of (A2 Scenario) in relation to the base period of for 15 different global climatic models available through IPCC.

31 Climate change Consequences on the Biome distribution in tropical South America Projected distribution of natural biomes in South America for from 15 AOGCMs for the A2 emissions scenarios, calculated by using CPTEC-INPE PVM. Salazar et al., 2007 GRL

32 Climate change Consequences on the Biome distribution in Tropical South America SRES B1 SRES B1 SRES B1 SRES A2 SRES A2 SRES A2 Grid points where more than 75% of the models used (> 11 models) coincide as projecting the future condition of the tropical forest and the savanna in relation with the current potential vegetation. The figure also shows the grid points where a consensus amongst the models of the future condition of the tropical forest was not found. for the periods (a) , (b) and (c) for B1 GHG emissions scenario and (d), (e) and (f) similarly for A2 GHG emissions scenario. Savanna replaces Forest Salazar et al., 2007 GRL

33 What are the likely biome changes in Tropical South America due to Global Warming scenarios of climate change? Environmental Drivers of Change Climate Change: CO 2 Land Cover Change: Deforestation, Forest Degradation Primary Drivers Droughts Forest Fires Secondary Drivers Short term (interannual to interdecadal) Long term (interdecadal to centennial) Secondarization Ecosystem Responses Changes in Species Composition Savannization/ forest dieback Tree Mortality x Tree Growth

34 Climate change How does the forest respond to increased atmospheric CO 2? Only Climate CO ppm ½ CO 2 fertilization effect Taking into account the potential positive effect of CO 2 on forest resilience Lapola et al. GBC, 2009

35 What are the likely biome changes in Tropical South America due to Global Warming scenarios of climate change? Environmental Drivers of Change Climate Change: temperature, rainfall and CO 2 Land Cover Change: Deforastatio, Foresst Degradation Primary Drivers Droughts Forest Fires Secondary Drivers Short term (interannual to interdecadal) Long term (interdecadal to centennial) Secondarization Ecosystem Responses Changes in Species Composition Savannization/ forest dieback Tree Mortality x Tree Growth

36 Figure. Natural vegetation reference map [Salazar, 2009] and actual potential vegetation simulated by CPTEC-PVM2.0Reg model under the mean climate. The division of the Amazon domain is indicated by the continuous box in the natural vegetation map. Region 1: Southeast (5.25 S S; W W); Region 2: Northeast (4.75 N 5.25 S; W W); Region 3: Northwest (4.75 N 5.25 S; W; W); Region 4: Southwest (5.25 S S; W W). Salazar and Nobre, 2010 GRL Potential Vegetation Simulated by the PVM2.0Reg (50 km) Vegetation types calculated by the vegetation model

37 Potential Dominant Biome in Response to T, P and CO 2 fertilization effect Salazar and Nobre, 2010 GRL Figure. Potential dominant biome simulated by CPTEC- PVM2.0Reg for different temperature anomalies, precipitation changes, and fertilization effects (0%, 25% and 100%) for SRES A2 climate scenario for the period , and for the regions of Amazonia (indicated in Figure 1): (a c) southeast, (d f) northeast, (g i) northwest and (j l) southwest Amazonia. The climate anomalies projected by regional (ETA CCS, RegCM3 and HadRM3P) and selected global (GISS]ER, ECHAM5, HadCM3 and M: average of fifteen global models from IPCC) models plotted for each region.

38 Potential Dominant Biome in Response to T, P and CO 2 fertilization effect Salazar and Nobre, 2010 GRL Most models are at the transition TROPICAL/ SEASONAL FOREST to SAVANNA while only two models are at the savanna TROPICAL FOREST SEASONAL FOREST 1 M Global Models 1: GISS-ER 2: ECHAM5 3: HadCM3 M: IPCC mean A2 scenario Regional Models 4: ETA CCS 5: RegCM3 6: HadRM3P SAVANNA SHRUBLAND

39 Warming of 0.8 C in Amazonia (Victoria et al., J Climate); IPCC AR4: 3 C to > 5 C in 2100! Total deforested area (clear-cutting) is 730,000 km 2 in Brazilian Amazonia (18%) (INPE, 2008) GLOBAL WARMING DEFORESTATION Anthropogenic and Natural Drivers of Environmental Change in Amazonia What are the synergistic effect of global warming + deforestation + fires? FOREST FIRES Forest fire frequency (Nepstad et al., 2006)

40 Atmospheric CO 2 Concentrations (ppm) Year A B A2 B1 DEFORESTATION + CLIMATE CHANGE + FIRE Grid point for 75% consensus projecting the future condition of tropical South American biomes in relation to current potential vegetation, for the time slices (A) % deforestation + fire and (B) % deforestation + fire for the A2 GHG emissions scenario, and (C), (D) similarly for the B1 GHG emissions scenario. In these maps, no consensus means that fewer than 12 models agree with the transition. Loss means consensus for substitution of that biome class.

41 Deforestation + Climate Change for Emission Scenario A2

42 DEF 20% DEF 20% + CC B1 DEF 20% + CC B1 + F CC 2025 A2 DEF 20% + CC A2 DEF 20% + CC A2 + F DEF 50% DEF 100% Remaining Forest Area (%) DEF 50% + CC B1 DEF 50% + CC B1 + F DEF 50% + CC A2 DEF 50% + CC A2 + F 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change 78% DEFORESTATION B1 A2 B1 A2 50% What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon by 2025 if 20% is deforested and deforested area is abandoned and let the vegetation to regrow? and if deforestation is 50% by 2075? and if deforestation is 100% by 2100? 20% deforest B1-20% Fire B1-20% Fire A Cchange A2-20% Fire A2-20% Fire 50% deforest B Cchange B1-50% Fire B1-50% Fire 40% 30% 20% 10% 22% A Cchange A2-50% Fire A2-50% Fire 100% deforest B Cchange A Cchange 0% CC = Climate change (B1, A2) Def = Deforestation (20%, 50%) F = Fire Gilvan, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation

43 DEF 20% DEF 20% + CC B1 DEF 20% + CC B1 + F DEF 20% + CC A2 DEF 20% + CC A2 + F DEF 50% DEF 100% Remaining Forest Area (%) DEF 50% + CC B1 DEF 50% + CC B1 + F DEF 50% + CC A2 DEF 50% + CC A2 + F 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change CLIMATE CHANGE (Scenario A2) What would and be the by 2075? remaining forest 20% deforest area in the Amazon under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO and by 2100? A2 by 2025? 78% 74% 66% 64% 59% 57% 50% B1-20% Fire B1-20% Fire A Cchange A2-20% Fire A2-20% Fire 50% deforest B Cchange B1-50% Fire B1-50% Fire 40% 30% 22% A Cchange A2-50% Fire A2-50% Fire 20% 10% 100% deforest B Cchange A Cchange 0% Gilvan, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation

44 DEF 20% DEF 20% + CC B1 DEF 20% + CC B1 + F DEF 20% + CC A2 DEF 20% + CC A2 + F DEF 50% DEF 100% Remaining Forest Area (%) DEF 50% + CC B1 + F DEF 50% + CC A2 DEF 50% + CC A2 + F 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change 78% CLIMATE CHANGE (Scenario A2) + DEFORESTATION What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon 20% deforest by 2025 if 20% is deforested and deforested area is abandoned and let the vegetation to regrow and under the and CLIMATE if 50% CHANGE is deforested SCENARIO and under A2 by the 2025? CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO A2 by 2075? 74% 66% 64% 21% 60% 59% 57% 50% B1-20% Fire B1-20% Fire A Cchange A2-20% Fire A2-20% Fire 50% deforest B Cchange B1-50% Fire B1-50% Fire 40% 30% 22% A Cchange A2-50% Fire A2-50% Fire 20% 10% 100% deforest B Cchange A Cchange 0% Gilvan, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation

45 DEF 20% DEF 20% + CC B1 DEF 20% + CC B1 + F DEF 20% + CC A2 DEF 20% + CC A2 + F DEF 50% DEF 100% Remaining Forest Area (%) DEF 50% + CC B1 DEF 50% + CC B1 + F DEF 50% + CC A2 DEF 50% + CC A2 + F 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change CLIMATE CHANGE (A2)+ DEFORESTATION + FIRE What would be the remaining forest area in the 20% Amazon deforest by 2025 if 20% and is deforested if 50% is deforested and deforested and under area is the B1-20% Fire abandoned and CLIMATE let the vegetation CHANGE SCENARIO to regrowa2 and and under FIRE by the CLIMATE CHANGE 2075? SCENARIO A2 and FIRE by B1-20% ? +Fire 78% 75% 34% 33% 74% A Cchange 61% 60% 21% 20% A2-20% Fire 66% 57% 56% 64% A2-20% Fire 59% 57% 50% deforest 50% B Cchange B1-50% Fire B1-50% Fire 40% 30% 22% A Cchange A2-50% Fire A2-50% Fire 20% 10% 100% deforest B Cchange A Cchange 0% Gilvan, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation

46 Preliminary attempt at determining quantitative tipping points for collapse of the Amazon forests Tentatively, thresholds for the maintenance of the rainforests are: T Global Warming < 3 C (3.5 C in the Amazon) Total Deforested Area < 40% Forest fires decrease even further the resilence of tropical forests in the Amazon The role of CO 2 fertilization is unkown and could increase resilience

47 Risks to Tropical Biomes Savannas In Amazonia Forest Caatinga Savanna Semi-Desert In NE Brazil Savannization of Amazonia and Aridization of NE Brazil Tipping Points for Amazonia T Global Warming > 3.5 C; Total deforested area > 40% Fontes: Oyama and Nobre, 2003 e Salazar et al.,, 2007; Sampaio et al., 2007; Nobre et al., 2009; Nobre and Borma, 2009; Salazar and Nobre, 2010

48 Can we avoid that this.

49 Fire....turns into this?

50 The Economist

51 Implications of the thresholds for Amazonian Countries and Domestic and International policies T global warming < 3 C (3.5 C in the Amazon) Total Deforested Area < 40%

52 Implications of the thresholds for Amazonian Countries and International policies Total Deforested Area < 40%

53 77/88* 88/89 89/90 90/91 91/92 92/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 Desflorestation (km² per year) As of 2009, 17% of Amazonia was deforested. High Deforestation Rates up to 2004! Deforestation in Amazonia in km² per year km² in * annual average per decade Data from INPE, 2009 What public policies are needed to sustain this reduction?

54 Land use change - scenarios Amazonia in the 2050 BAU Scenario: Deforested 2,698,735 km 2 Forest 3,320,409 km 2 Non-forest 1,497,685 km 2 33 Pg C 500 km Soares-Filho, et al. 2006, Nature

55 77/88* 88/89 89/90 90/91 91/92 92/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 Desflorestation (km² per year) As of 2009, 17% of Amazonia was deforested. 60% decline in deforestation rates from 2004 to 2009! Deforestation in Amazonia in km² per year km² in * annual average per decade Data from INPE, 2009 What public policies are needed to sustain this reduction?

56 Land use change - scenarios Amazonia in the 2050 Governance Scenario: Deforested 1,655,734 km 2 Forest 4,363,410 km 2 Non-forest 1,497,685 km km 17 Pg C Soares-Filho, et al. 2006, Nature

57 Implications of the thresholds for Amazonian Countries and International policies Total Deforested Area < 40% Policies to rapidly reduce deforestation (e.g., maintaining 80% of forests in rural landholdings as it is with the current land use policy); depends by and large on Brazilian policies; apparent success in the last 5 years

58 Implications of the thresholds for Amazonian Countries and International policies T global warming < 3 C (3.5 C in the Amazon)

59 CO 2 Emissions (GtC y -1 ) Recent emissions 0 CO emissions from fossil fuels Actual emissions: CDIAC Actual emissions: EIA 450ppm stabilisation 650ppm stabilisation A1FI A1B (Avgs.) A1T A2 B1 B CO 2 CO 2 -equivalent CO 2 -equivalent with aerosols 2009 Concentrations in 2008 Observed relative increase : 3.5% IPCC scenarios: % 385 ppm 463 ppm 396 ppm 5 A concentration of 450 ppm CO 2 -eq (plus aerosols) gives a 50/50 chance to a temperature increase of less than 2 C Raupach et al 2007, PNAS; Global Carbon Project 2009

60 Implications of the thresholds for Amazonian Countries and International policies T global warming < 3 C (3.5 C in the Amazon) Limiting global warming < 2 C by early and sharp reductions of global emissions (reducing this risk depends little on Amazonian countries policies).

61 Implications of the thresholds for Amazonian Countries and International policies T global warming < 3 C (3.5 C in the Amazon) Limiting global warming < 2 C by early and sharp reductions of global emissions (reducing this risk depends little on Amazonian countries policies). Total Deforested Area < 40% Policies to rapidly reduce deforestation (e.g., maintaining 80% of forests in rural landholdings as it is with the current land use policy); depends by and large on Brazilian policies; apparent success in the last 5 years

62 Foto: cortesia de Antonio Nobre Obrigado! Thank you!

63 Remaining Forest Area (%) Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change DEF 20% DEF 20% + CC B1 DEF 20% + CC B1 + F CC 2025 A2 DEF 20% + CC A2 DEF 20% + CC A2 + F DEF 50% DEF 50% + CC B1 DEF 50% + CC B1 + F DEF 50% + CC A2 DEF 50% + CC A2 + F DEF 100% 100% 90% 80% B1 A2 B1 A2 20% deforest B Cchange B1-20% Fire B1-20% Fire 70% 60% 50% 40% A Cchange A2-20% Fire A2-20% Fire 50% deforest B Cchange B1-50% Fire B1-50% Fire 30% 20% A Cchange A2-50% Fire A2-50% Fire 10% 0% 100% deforest B Cchange A Cchange CC = Climate change (B1, A2) Def = Deforestation (20%, 50%) F = Fire Gilvan, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation

64 DEF 20% DEF 20% + CC B1 DEF 20% + CC B1 + F CC 2025 A2 DEF 20% + CC A2 DEF 20% + CC A2 + F DEF 50% DEF 100% Remaining Forest Area (%) DEF 50% + CC B1 DEF 50% + CC B1 + F DEF 50% + CC A2 DEF 50% + CC A2 + F 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change 78% DEFORESTATION B1 A2 B1 A2 50% What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon by 2025 if 20% is deforested and deforested area is abandoned and let the vegetation to regrow? and if deforestation is 50% by 2075? and if deforestation is 100% by 2100? 20% deforest B1-20% Fire B1-20% Fire A Cchange A2-20% Fire A2-20% Fire 50% deforest B Cchange B1-50% Fire B1-50% Fire 40% 30% 20% 10% 22% A Cchange A2-50% Fire A2-50% Fire 100% deforest B Cchange A Cchange 0% CC = Climate change (B1, A2) Def = Deforestation (20%, 50%) F = Fire Sampaio, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation

65 DEF 20% DEF 20% + CC B1 DEF 20% + CC B1 + F CC 2025 A2 DEF 20% + CC A2 DEF 20% + CC A2 + F DEF 50% DEF 100% Remaining Forest Area (%) DEF 50% + CC B1 DEF 50% + CC B1 + F DEF 50% + CC A2 DEF 50% + CC A2 + F 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change CLIMATE CHANGE (Scenario B1) A2 78% 75% 66% 50% What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon under and the by CLIMATE 2075? A2 CHANGE SCENARIO B1 by 2025? and by 2100? 59% 20% deforest B1-20% Fire B1-20% Fire A Cchange A2-20% Fire A2-20% Fire 50% deforest B Cchange B1-50% Fire B1-50% Fire 40% 30% 22% A Cchange A2-50% Fire A2-50% Fire 20% 10% 100% deforest B Cchange A Cchange 0% Gilvan, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation

66 DEF 20% DEF 20% + CC B1 DEF 20% + CC B1 + F DEF 20% + CC A2 DEF 20% + CC A2 + F DEF 50% DEF 100% Remaining Forest Area (%) DEF 50% + CC B1 DEF 50% + CC B1 + F DEF 50% + CC A2 DEF 50% + CC A2 + F 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change CLIMATE CHANGE (Scenario A2) What would and be the by 2075? remaining forest 20% deforest area in the Amazon under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO and by 2100? A2 by 2025? 78% 75% 74% 66% 64% 59% 57% 50% B1-20% Fire B1-20% Fire A Cchange A2-20% Fire A2-20% Fire 50% deforest B Cchange B1-50% Fire B1-50% Fire 40% 30% 22% A Cchange A2-50% Fire A2-50% Fire 20% 10% 100% deforest B Cchange A Cchange 0% Gilvan, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation

67 DEF 20% DEF 20% + CC B1 DEF 20% + CC B1 + F DEF 20% + CC A2 DEF 20% + CC A2 + F DEF 50% DEF 100% Remaining Forest Area (%) DEF 50% + CC B1 DEF 50% + CC B1 + F DEF 50% + CC A2 DEF 50% + CC A2 + F 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change CLIMATE CHANGE (Scenario B1) + DEFORESTATION What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon by 20% deforest 2025 if 20% is deforested and if and 50% deforested is deforested area and is abandoned under the B1-20% Fire and let the vegetation CLIMATE and to regrow if CHANGE 100% and is SCENARIO deforested under the CLIMATE and by under 2075? the CHANGE SCENARIO CLIMATE B1 by 2025? CHANGE SCENARIO B1-20%-2025 B1 by 2100? +Fire 78% 75% 74% 34% 61% 66% 64% 59% 57% 50% A Cchange A2-20% Fire A2-20% Fire 50% deforest B Cchange B1-50% Fire B1-50% Fire 40% 30% 22% A Cchange A2-50% Fire A2-50% Fire 20% 10% 100% deforest B Cchange A Cchange 0% Gilvan, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation

68 DEF 20% DEF 20% + CC B1 DEF 20% + CC B1 + F DEF 20% + CC A2 DEF 20% + CC A2 + F DEF 50% DEF 100% Remaining Forest Area (%) DEF 50% + CC B1 DEF 50% + CC B1 + F DEF 50% + CC A2 DEF 50% + CC A2 + F 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change 78% 75% CLIMATE CHANGE (Scenario A2) + DEFORESTATION What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon 20% deforest by 2025 if 20% is deforested and deforested area is abandoned and let the vegetation to regrow and under the and CLIMATE if 50% CHANGE is deforested SCENARIO and under A2 by the 2025? CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO A2 by 2075? 74% 34% 61% 66% 64% 21% 60% 59% 57% 50% B1-20% Fire B1-20% Fire A Cchange A2-20% Fire A2-20% Fire 50% deforest B Cchange B1-50% Fire B1-50% Fire 40% 30% 22% A Cchange A2-50% Fire A2-50% Fire 20% 10% 100% deforest B Cchange A Cchange 0% Gilvan, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation

69 DEF 20% DEF 20% + CC B1 DEF 20% + CC B1 + F DEF 20% + CC A2 DEF 20% + CC A2 + F DEF 50% DEF 100% Remaining Forest Area (%) DEF 50% + CC B1 DEF 50% + CC B1 + F DEF 50% + CC A2 DEF 50% + CC A2 + F 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change CLIMATE CHANGE (B1) + DEFORASTATION + FIRE What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon by 20% deforest 2025 if 20% is deforested and deforested area is abandoned and let the vegetation to regrow and under the CLIMATE B1-20% Fire CHANGE and if 50% SCENARIO is deforested B1 and and FIRE under by 2025? the CLIMATE B1-20%-2025 CHANGE +Fire SCENARIO B1 and FIRE by 2075? A Cchange A2-20% Fire 34% 78% 75% 33% 74% 61% 57% 66% 21% 64% 59% 60% 57% 50% A2-20% Fire 50% deforest B Cchange B1-50% Fire B1-50% Fire 40% 30% 22% A Cchange A2-50% Fire A2-50% Fire 20% 10% 100% deforest B Cchange A Cchange 0% Gilvan, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation

70 DEF 20% DEF 20% + CC B1 DEF 20% + CC B1 + F DEF 20% + CC A2 DEF 20% + CC A2 + F DEF 50% DEF 100% Remaining Forest Area (%) DEF 50% + CC B1 DEF 50% + CC B1 + F DEF 50% + CC A2 DEF 50% + CC A2 + F 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change CLIMATE CHANGE (A2)+ DEFORESTATION + FIRE What would be the remaining forest area in the 20% Amazon deforest by 2025 if 20% and is deforested if 50% is deforested and deforested and under area is the B1-20% Fire abandoned and CLIMATE let the vegetation CHANGE SCENARIO to regrowa2 and and under FIRE by the CLIMATE CHANGE 2075? SCENARIO A2 and FIRE by B1-20% ? +Fire 78% 75% 34% 33% 74% A Cchange 61% 60% 21% 20% A2-20% Fire 66% 57% 56% 64% A2-20% Fire 59% 57% 50% deforest 50% B Cchange B1-50% Fire B1-50% Fire 40% 30% 22% A Cchange A2-50% Fire A2-50% Fire 20% 10% 100% deforest B Cchange A Cchange 0% Gilvan, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation

71 DEF 20% DEF 20% + CC B1 DEF 20% + CC B1 + F CC 2025 A2 DEF 20% + CC A2 DEF 20% + CC A2 + F DEF 50% DEF 100% DEF 50% + CC B1 DEF 50% + CC B1 + F DEF 50% + CC A2 DEF 50% + CC A2 + F Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change 80% 50% 20% CC = Climate change (B1, A2) Def = Deforestation (20%, 50%) F = Fire Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation

72 Global Sustainability Science IGBP P

73 IGBP Strategic Vision To provide essential scientific leadership and knowledge of the Earth system to help guide society onto a sustainable pathway during rapid global change

74 Integrated Earth-System Approach

75 IGBP s second synthesis Bringing together biogeochemists and climate modellers, with biodiversity, social scientists, economists, policy makers,...

76 Second Synthesis Megacities & coasts Needs of least developed nations Cryosphere impacts

77 Second Synthesis Geoengineering impacts Nitrogen and climate

78 Second Synthesis Climate & land use Air quality & climate Adaptation

79 Remaining Forest Area (%) Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change DEF 20% DEF 20% + CC B1 DEF 20% + CC B1 + F CC 2025 A2 DEF 20% + CC A2 DEF 20% + CC A2 + F DEF 50% DEF 50% + CC B1 DEF 50% + CC B1 + F DEF 50% + CC A2 DEF 50% + CC A2 + F DEF 100% 100% 90% 80% B1 A2 B1 A2 20% deforest B Cchange B1-20% Fire B1-20% Fire 70% 60% 50% 40% A Cchange A2-20% Fire A2-20% Fire 50% deforest B Cchange B1-50% Fire B1-50% Fire 30% 20% A Cchange A2-50% Fire A2-50% Fire 10% 0% 100% deforest B Cchange A Cchange CC = Climate change (B1, A2) Def = Deforestation (20%, 50%) F = Fire Gilvan, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation

80 Deforestation + Climate Change for Emission Scenario B1

81 DEF 20% DEF 20% + CC B1 DEF 20% + CC B1 + F CC 2025 A2 DEF 20% + CC A2 DEF 20% + CC A2 + F DEF 50% DEF 100% Remaining Forest Area (%) DEF 50% + CC B1 DEF 50% + CC B1 + F DEF 50% + CC A2 DEF 50% + CC A2 + F 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change 78% DEFORESTATION B1 A2 B1 A2 50% What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon by 2025 if 20% is deforested and deforested area is abandoned and let the vegetation to regrow? and if deforestation is 50% by 2075? and if deforestation is 100% by 2100? 20% deforest B1-20% Fire B1-20% Fire A Cchange A2-20% Fire A2-20% Fire 50% deforest B Cchange B1-50% Fire B1-50% Fire 40% 30% 20% 10% 22% A Cchange A2-50% Fire A2-50% Fire 100% deforest B Cchange A Cchange 0% CC = Climate change (B1, A2) Def = Deforestation (20%, 50%) F = Fire Gilvan, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation

82 DEF 20% DEF 20% + CC B1 DEF 20% + CC B1 + F CC 2025 A2 DEF 20% + CC A2 DEF 20% + CC A2 + F DEF 50% DEF 100% Remaining Forest Area (%) DEF 50% + CC B1 DEF 50% + CC B1 + F DEF 50% + CC A2 DEF 50% + CC A2 + F 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change CLIMATE CHANGE (Scenario B1) A2 78% 75% 66% 50% What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon and under by CLIMATE 2075? CHANGE A2 by 2025? and by 2100? 59% 20% deforest B1-20% Fire B1-20% Fire A Cchange A2-20% Fire A2-20% Fire 50% deforest B Cchange B1-50% Fire B1-50% Fire 40% 30% 22% A Cchange A2-50% Fire A2-50% Fire 20% 10% 100% deforest B Cchange A Cchange 0% Gilvan, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation

83 DEF 20% DEF 20% + CC B1 DEF 20% + CC B1 + F DEF 20% + CC A2 DEF 20% + CC A2 + F DEF 50% DEF 100% Remaining Forest Area (%) DEF 50% + CC B1 DEF 50% + CC B1 + F DEF 50% + CC A2 DEF 50% + CC A2 + F 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change 78% 75% CLIMATE CHANGE + DEFORESTATION (Scenario B1) What would be the remaining forest area in the 20% Amazon deforest 66% 34% 61% 59% 50% and if 50% is deforested and by 2025 if 20% is deforested under the and CLIMATE deforested CHANGE area is abandoned and let the SCENARIO vegetation B1 to by regrow 2075? and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO A1 by 2025? B1-20% Fire B1-20% Fire A Cchange A2-20% Fire A2-20% Fire 50% deforest B Cchange B1-50% Fire B1-50% Fire 40% 30% 22% A Cchange A2-50% Fire A2-50% Fire 20% 10% 100% deforest B Cchange A Cchange 0% Gilvan, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation

84 DEF 20% DEF 20% + CC B1 DEF 20% + CC B1 + F DEF 20% + CC A2 DEF 20% + CC A2 + F DEF 50% DEF 100% Remaining Forest Area (%) DEF 50% + CC B1 DEF 50% + CC B1 + F DEF 50% + CC A2 DEF 50% + CC A2 + F 100% 90% 80% 70% Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change CLIMATE CHANGE (B1) + DEFORASTATION + FIRE 34% 78% 75% 33% 61% 57% 66% What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon by 20% deforest 2025 if 20% is deforested and deforested area is abandoned and let the vegetation to regrow and under the CLIMATE B1-20% Fire CHANGE and if 50% SCENARIO is deforested B1 and and FIRE under by 2025? the CLIMATE B1-20%-2025 CHANGE +Fire SCENARIO B1 and FIRE by 2075? A Cchange A2-20% Fire 59% A2-20% Fire 60% 50% 50% 50% deforest B Cchange B1-50% Fire B1-50% Fire 40% 30% 22% A Cchange A2-50% Fire A2-50% Fire 20% 10% 100% deforest B Cchange A Cchange 0% Gilvan, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation

85 Remaining Forest Area (%) Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change DEF 20% DEF 20% + CC B1 DEF 20% + CC B1 + F CC 2025 A2 DEF 20% + CC A2 DEF 20% + CC A2 + F DEF 50% DEF 50% + CC B1 DEF 50% + CC B1 + F DEF 50% + CC A2 DEF 50% + CC A2 + F 100% 90% 80% B1 A2 B1 A2 20% deforest B Cchange B1-20% Fire B1-20% Fire 70% A Cchange 60% A2-20% Fire A2-20% Fire 50% 50% deforest 40% B Cchange B1-50% Fire 30% B1-50% Fire 20% A Cchange A2-50% Fire 10% A2-50% Fire 0% CC = Climate change (B1, A2) Def = Deforestation (20%, 50%) F = Fire Sampaio, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation

86 DEF 20% DEF 20% + CC B1 DEF 20% + CC B1 + F CC 2025 A2 DEF 20% + CC A2 DEF 20% + CC A2 + F DEF 50% Remaining Forest Area (%) DEF 50% + CC B1 DEF 50% + CC B1 + F DEF 50% + CC A2 DEF 50% + CC A2 + F 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change 78% DEFORESTATION B1 A2 B1 A2 50% What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon by 2025 if 20% is deforested and deforested area is abandoned and let the vegetation to regrow? and if deforestation is 50% by 2075? 20% deforest B1-20% Fire B1-20% Fire A Cchange A2-20% Fire A2-20% Fire 50% deforest B Cchange B1-50% Fire B1-50% Fire A Cchange A2-50% Fire A2-50% Fire 20% 10% 100% deforest B Cchange A Cchange 0% CC = Climate change (B1, A2) Def = Deforestation (20%, 50%) F = Fire Sampaio, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation

87 DEF 20% DEF 20% + CC B1 DEF 20% + CC B1 + F CC 2025 A2 DEF 20% + CC A2 DEF 20% + CC A2 + F DEF 50% DEF 100% Remaining Forest Area (%) DEF 50% + CC B1 DEF 50% + CC B1 + F DEF 50% + CC A2 DEF 50% + CC A2 + F 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change CLIMATE CHANGE (Scenario B1) A2 A2 78% 75% 66% What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO B1 by 2025? 50% and by 2075? 20% deforest B1-20% Fire B1-20% Fire A Cchange A2-20% Fire A2-20% Fire 50% deforest B Cchange B1-50% Fire B1-50% Fire 40% 30% A Cchange A2-50% Fire A2-50% Fire 20% 10% 100% deforest B Cchange A Cchange 0% Sampaio, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation

88 DEF 20% DEF 20% + CC B1 DEF 20% + CC B1 + F DEF 20% + CC A2 DEF 20% + CC A2 + F DEF 50% DEF 100% Remaining Forest Area (%) DEF 50% + CC B1 DEF 50% + CC B1 + F DEF 50% + CC A2 DEF 50% + CC A2 + F 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change CLIMATE CHANGE (Scenario A2) 78% 75% 74% 66% 64% 50% 20% deforest B1-20% Fire B1-20% Fire A Cchange A2-20% Fire What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO A2 by 2025? and by 2075? A2-20% Fire 50% deforest B Cchange B1-50% Fire B1-50% Fire 40% 30% A Cchange A2-50% Fire A2-50% Fire 20% 10% 100% deforest B Cchange A Cchange 0% Sampaio, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation

89 DEF 20% DEF 20% + CC B1 DEF 20% + CC B1 + F DEF 20% + CC A2 DEF 20% + CC A2 + F DEF 50% DEF 100% Remaining Forest Area (%) DEF 50% + CC B1 DEF 50% + CC B1 + F DEF 50% + CC A2 DEF 50% + CC A2 + F 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change CLIMATE CHANGE (Scenario B1) + DEFORESTATION 78% 75% 64% 74% 61% 66% 50% 34% 20% deforest B1-20% Fire What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon by 2025 if 20% is deforested and deforested area is abandoned and let the vegetation to regrow and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO B1 by 2025? B1-20% Fire A Cchange A2-20% Fire A2-20% Fire 50% deforest B Cchange B1-50% Fire and if 50% is deforested and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO B1 by 2075? B1-50% Fire A Cchange A2-50% Fire A2-50% Fire 20% 10% 100% deforest B Cchange A Cchange 0% Gilvan, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation

90 DEF 20% DEF 20% + CC B1 DEF 20% + CC B1 + F DEF 20% + CC A2 DEF 20% + CC A2 + F DEF 50% Remaining Forest Area (%) DEF 50% + CC B1 DEF 50% + CC B1 + F DEF 50% + CC A2 DEF 50% + CC A2 + F 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change CLIMATE CHANGE (Scenario A2) + DEFORASTATION 64% 78% 75% 74% 61% 66% 60% 50% 34% 21% 20% deforest B1-20% Fire B1-20% Fire What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon by 2025 if 20% is deforested and deforested area is abandoned and let the vegetation to regrow and under the CLIMATE CHANGE 50% deforest SCENARIO A2 by 2025? and if 50% is deforested and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO A2 by 2075? A Cchange A2-20% Fire A2-20% Fire B Cchange B1-50% Fire B1-50% Fire A Cchange A2-50% Fire A2-50% Fire 20% 10% 100% deforest B Cchange A Cchange 0% Sampaio, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation

91 DEF 20% DEF 20% + CC B1 DEF 20% + CC B1 + F DEF 20% + CC A2 DEF 20% + CC A2 + F DEF 50% Remaining Forest Area (%) DEF 50% + CC B1 DEF 50% + CC B1 + F DEF 50% + CC A2 DEF 50% + CC A2 + F 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change CLIMATE CHANGE (B1) + DEFORASTATION + FIRE 78% 75% 64% 74% 34% 33% 61% 57% 66% 60% 20% 50% 20% deforest B1-20% Fire B1-20% Fire What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon by 2025 if 20% is deforested and deforested area is abandoned and let the vegetation to regrow and under the 50% deforest CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO B1 and FIRE by 2025? A Cchange A2-20% Fire A2-20% Fire B Cchange B1-50% Fire B1-50% Fire and if 50% is deforested and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO B1 and FIRE by 2075? A Cchange A2-50% Fire A2-50% Fire 20% 10% 100% deforest B Cchange A Cchange 0% Sampaio, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation

92 DEF 20% DEF 20% + CC B1 DEF 20% + CC B1 + F DEF 20% + CC A2 DEF 20% + CC A2 + F DEF 50% DEF CC 100% B1 Remaining Forest Area (%) DEF 50% + CC B1 DEF 50% + CC B1 + F DEF 50% + CC A2 DEF 50% + CC A2 + F 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Area (%) of Remaining Tropical Forest in Amazonia for Various Scenarios of Synergistic Change CLIMATE CHANGE (A2)+ DEFORASTATION + FIRE 78% 75% 74% 34% 33% 61% 60% 57% 56% 66% 50% 64% 20% 21% 20% deforest B1-20% Fire What would be the remaining forest area in the Amazon by 2025 if 20% is deforested and deforested area is abandoned and let the vegetation to regrow and under the CLIMATE 50% deforest CHANGE SCENARIO A2 and FIRE by 2025? B1-20% Fire A Cchange A2-20% Fire A2-20% Fire B Cchange B1-50% Fire B1-50% Fire and if 50% is deforested and under the CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO A2 and FIRE by 2075? A Cchange A2-50% Fire A2-50% Fire 20% 10% 100% deforest B Cchange A Cchange 0% Sampaio, Nobre et al., 2010 in preparation

93 Emissions from Land Use Change ( ) Canadell et al. 2009, Biogeosciences (Area)

94 Fire Emissions from Deforestation Zones Global Fire Emissions Dataset (vs2) van der Werf et al. 2006, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, updated

95 Atmospheric CO 2 and the cumulative carbon budget starting from 1750 Notice: Cumulative carbon fluxes for Net Land Flux is decreasing Cumulative carbon fluxes from 1750 onwards of the main sources and sinks of the global carbon cycle including fossil fuel emissions, the atmospheric CO2 increase, ocean uptake, and net land flux. The atmospheric increase is calculated from a spline fit to the ice core and Mauna Loa CO2 data from (a), the ocean uptake is based on the ocean inversion of Mikaloff Fletcher et al. (2006) scaled to the respective year assuming a linear relationship between ocean uptake and atmospheric CO2 and the net land flux is computed by the difference Net land flux = fossil fuel emissions atmospheric CO2 increase ocean uptake. The symbols are estimates from Sabine et al. (2004) for the period from 1800 to 1994 summed to the 1790 to 1810 average of our estimates. J. L. Sarmiento et al., 2010

96 CO 2 Emissions from Land Use Change CO 2 emissions (PgC y -1 ) Fossil fuel Land use change Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature-geoscience; Data: CDIAC, FAO, Woods Hole Research Center 2009

97 Trends and regional distribution of land and ocean carbon sinks Tropical Forests: sources and sinks of carbon Global flux estimates for 1960 to 1988 and 1989 to 2003/7 obtained by averaging the fluxes shown in Fig. 1 and Table 2. The shaded region on the right summarizes the post-1988/1989 bottom-up land source and sink components discussed in the text. J. L. Sarmiento et al., 2010