What We ve Learned About Our People and CC: A PINEMAP 4 Years

Transcription

1 What We ve Learned About Our People and CC: A PINEMAP 4 Years A Presentation to the SALCC Brownbag Consortium December 11 th, 2014 Mark Megalos, NCSU Rachel Burnett, MSU Bill Hubbard and Leslie Boby, UGA

2 This Talk Pinemap Overview Our People -Extension in NC & the South Foresters Where they are on CC New Work: What are they observing Questions/Comments

3 PINEMAP's Goal Create, synthesize, and disseminate the knowledge to southern pine landowners to Increase carbon sequestration by 15% by 2030; Increase efficiency of nitrogen and other fertilizer inputs by 10% by 2030; Adapt forest management/genetics to increase forest resilience and sustainability under variable climates.

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5 Geneticists, Educators, Modelers, Economists, Physiologists, Extensionists, Grad students, Post Doc s, Staff 52 PI s

6 EXTENSIONISTS

7 Results Six Americas Segmentation Analysis: General US public vs. NCCE

8 Results Six Americas Segmentation Analysis: North Carolina extension vs. other southern states

9 Results Six Americas Segmentation Analysis: Whole population vs. Discipline subsets

10 Results Six Americas Segmentation Analysis: Politic views and climate change perceptions

11 Conclusions Extension Folks ~ 70% of the NCCE are Alarmed, Concerned or Cautious about global warming Participate in climate change programming is strongly related to engagement with the issue Personal and regional differences exist! Take into account for design and implementing climate change programming Same education methods might not be valid in Florida, North Carolina, and Mississippi We ll get back to this again!

12 FORESTERS

13 SOUTHERN FORESTER SURVEY 2013 Response rate: 27% of 6,600 Excluded all non-foresters; n=1329 responses No nonresponse bias detected 5 = High 1 = Low

14 EMPLOYER TYPE Lower acceptance ANOVA, p<.0001 Higher acceptance

15 State Demographics ANOVA, p<.0001 Lower acceptance Higher acceptance

16 EXPERIENCE Demographic Simple linear regression, p<.05

17 Political Ideology ANOVA, p<.0001

18 Research question #2 How does attitude toward climate change affect forestry professionals willingness to: ACCEPT CC See Observe climate-related changes in their environment Connect Consider those changes relevant to forestry Adapt Think those changes will require different management strategies

19 Results

20 Conclusions for outreach Tailor programming to client concerns Photo by Hansel Mieth, courtesy of: Focus programming on no regrets solutions to future uncertainty Can t wait until audience is receptive Must sell adaptation that aligns with foresters concerns Photo courtesy of:

21 SOUTHERN FORESTER OBSERVATIONS

22 Recent Work: Spatial Analysis of Climate Obs. In-depth Analysis of State by State observations New Statistics Re-employed a Grad-assistant (remotely) Are Foresters Seeing Similar Trends Across the South? Ties to Concerns and Teachable Moments

23 Climatic Factors Affecting Forestry Greater frequency and/or severity of flooding Longer dry periods or drought conditions Frequency/severity of insect damage Frequency/severity of invasive plants Frequency/severity of extreme weather Increased soil erosion Greater frequency/severity of fire Warmer winters Hotter summers Drier planting Change in length of growing season More frequent or extreme rainfall Cooler winters Cooler summers Wetter planting

24 5.00 Change in Climate AL AR FL GA KY LA MS NC OK SC TN TX VA Multi Overall Mean (red line) = 3.21 (CI 95 % Bars)

25 3.0 = Occasionally & 4.0 = Frequently TOP Climate Observations Climate Observation Questions: Have you experienced...? Mean Standard Deviation Greater Frequency and/or Severity of Invasive Plant Infestations Longer Dry Periods or Drought Conditions Warmer Winters

26 BOTTOM Climate Observations Climate Observation Questions: Have you experienced...? Mean Standard Deviation Cooler Winters Increased Soil Erosion Cooler Summers = Rarely

27 SIGNIFICANT OBSERVATIONS Forester Observations Of... Greater Frequency and/or Severity of Invasive Plant Infestations Greater Frequency and/or Severity of Fire Events Longer Dry Periods or Drought Conditions Drier Planting Moran s I (Region-wide differences) ** (0.0274) ** (0.0246) * (0.0277) * (0.0288) Geary s c (Adjacent States differences) ** (0.0453) * (0.0607) * (0.0437) * (0.0380)

28 5.00 Invasive Plant Infestations AL AR FL GA KY LA MS NC OK SC TN TX VA Multi

29 INVASIVE PLANTS =3.36

30 5.00 Severe Fire Events AL AR FL GA KY LA MS NC OK SC TN TX VA Multi

31 SEVERE FIRE EVENTS ( FREQ./SEVERITY) =2.60

32 5.00 Drought Conditions AL AR FL GA KY LA MS NC OK SC TN TX VA Multi

33 DRY PERIODS / DROUGHT =3.27

34 5.00 Drier Planting AL AR FL GA KY LA MS NC OK SC TN TX VA Multi

35 DRIER PLANTING =2.88

36 5 Winter Temperatures AL AR FL GA KY LA MS NC OK SC TN TX VA Multi Warmer Winters Cooler Winters Average (Warmer) Average (Cooler)

37 The following climatic changes are observed by the corresponding states with a frequency significantly (p<0.05) higher than other southeastern states: Flooding: Tennessee, Louisiana, and North Carolina Drought: Oklahoma and Florida Extreme rainfall: Kentucky Insect damage: Oklahoma and Kentucky Disease damage: Oklahoma Invasive plant infestations: Kentucky Hotter summers: Oklahoma Drier planting: Oklahoma, Florida, Georgia, and Texas Fire: Oklahoma, Texas, Florida, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, and North Carolina

38 Conclusions On Spatial Climate Observations States with the highest mean responses of foresters to increased drought observations are located along the periphery of the Southeast: Florida, Texas, and Oklahoma Along the Atlantic Coast, there is a trend of decreasing drought observations based on mean responses from south (Florida) to north (Virginia). States with the highest mean responses of foresters to increased invasive plant infestations are located in the northeast corner of the Southeast (Kentucky, Virginia, and North Carolina)

39 Conclusions On Spatial Climate Observations 2 Severity of fire and drier planting follows pattern observed for drought : the highest mean responses are found on the periphery (Texas, Oklahoma, and Florida) and values decrease toward the center of the Southeast (Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee). Mean responses to hotter summers tend to be higher for peripheral states and lower, central in the Southern states.

40 Conclusions On Spatial Climate Observations 3 Finally, we now have some data to tweak CC outreach in SE- focused on concerns related to observed climate occurrences. Real, significant differences exist despite SE minimal Climate impacts to date.

41 These are Preliminary Results COMMENTS QUESTIONS SUGGESTIONS

42 THANK YOU