Canadian Energy Political Economy in the Shadow of the American Empire. Marjorie Griffin Cohen UNAM, Mexico City, October 2007
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1 Canadian Energy Political Economy in the Shadow of the American Empire Marjorie Griffin Cohen UNAM, Mexico City, October
2 Main Points Canada no formal energy policy US policy dominates in oil & gas Electricity still largely in public sector Rapidly changing US regulatory imperialism US trajectory for energy domination in North America
3 Oil and Gas U.S. control pervasive No national debate Resource nationalism elsewhere Largest companies & reserves owned by nation states All new exploration & production controlled by private sector (US) Even energy security not discussed
4 Significance for U.S. Seamless energy market throughout North America Bush 2000 election campaign Cheney National Energy Policy Canada & Mexico feature as energy sources US severely energy stressed US 1/4 th of world s consumption 3% of world s reserves Cannot be energy independent
5 Integration of US/Canadian oil industries Long history Canada now US largest energy trading partner (oil, natural gas, electricity, uranium) Exports to US 60% oil production Exports to US 55% of natural gas 87% of US gas imports (15% total needs)
6 Oil Control Alberta - always a strong private US presence Oil sector developed as extension of US interests Regulatory policy designed to integrate markets Integration cemented in 1961 National Oil Policy
7 Canada
8 National Oil Policy 1961 Alberta supply oil west of Ottawa River Quebec & Maritimes supplied from US based companies shipped from Venezuela Through 1960s Canada conformed to US energy demands National Energy Board facilitated needs of oil & gas exporters
9 Changes in 1970s & 80s OPEC crisis - huge price increaes Canada tries to reduce energy security (& foreign control) Only 6.7% of oil then Cdn. owned Creates Petro Canada 1975
10 National Energy Program (NEP) US control and threat of energy scarcity driving force Initiated by Pierre Trudeau 1980 Main points: Promote Cdn. Energy market (not trade) Reduce vulnerability of eastern Canada Expand Cdn. ownership
11 What Happened? Lasted 18 months Outraged oil & gas industries Outraged Alberta Outraged US (Ronald Reagan & Congress) Cdn. Ownership increased from 6.7% to 34.7% (when privatized)
12 Political Disaster Collapsing world oil prices Tremendous power exerted (Alberta, US, industry) Oil autonomy completely ended with 1985 Western Accord (Brian Mulroney) Petro Canada fully privatized 1991
13 Western Accord Market pricing (US) Reduction in federal taxes No barriers to foreign entry or control Privatize existing public entities Encourage exports Low rents for resource NEB locates in Alberta
14 Oil and Gas Trade Exports to US Imports from US Oil 455 2,118 (000bdp) Gas 979 3, (bcf)
15
16 Oil Production
17 Canadian Reserves
18 Natural Gas North America self-sufficient Canada supplies most US imports Problems with meeting future demand
19 NA Gas Production
20 Deregulation in Canada Profound changes since mid-1980s Continental market in gas Canada: has the most open natural gas market in the world, with competition extending from production to final consumer marketing (US ITC)
21 Competition Introduced in 1985 Agreement on Natural Gas Prices and Markets Buyers purchase gas directly NEB ensure access to transmission NEB oversight over exports Now completely private Large pipeline growth
22 Major Gas Pipelines
23
24 Results: Convergence of Canadian & US prices Long-term contracts with variable prices Development of financial market Futures for gas Wide fluctuations in gas prices Price volatility & uncertainty systematic
25 More results Prices structurally higher than any other time in history Emergence of spot market encouraged indexing of contracts to this highly visible commodity pricing
26 Outlook Supply tight Increase from unconventional sources Coalbed methane LNG regasification facilities Arctic gas
27 Electricity Restructuring in U.S. chaotic Electricity still mostly in public sector in Canada (large integrated utilities Each system responsible for a large area Plans supply, distribution, conservation Inexpensive electricity (because hydro based)
28 Massive Changes Canada rapidly deregulating & privatizing electricity Two main reasons: US regulatory imperialism Private sector demands (Enron initiated)
29 Electricity Generation --Type coal 17% petrol 3% gas 5% hydro 58% ren ew 2% nuclear 15%
30 Transmission connections between Canada & US And within Canada
31
32
33 FERC Rules US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission US National Energy Policy Integrated N.A. electricity market Problems Adequate Supply Public sector Control Transmission
34 Solutions for U.S. US control of transmission grid Standard Market Design Regulatory Imperialism Change public nature of systems in US & Mexico
35 How it will work Regional Transmission Organizations Ensure private producers have access to public grid system Completely separate generation from transmission control US maintain control of N.A. transmission system
36 FERC requiring that Cdn. System mirror US (in order to trade electricity) Not a NAFTA requirement All large systems in Canada comply
37 Results Increase in private producers Increase problems with reliability Encourage expansion for export Increase in power traders (not producers) Increase in prices Domination of Cdn. System by U.S. regulator
38 Results Environmental exploitation Loss of energy sovereignty Loss of energy revenues
39
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