Short-Term and Long-Term Outlook for Energy Markets
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1 Short-Term and Long-Term Outlook for Energy Markets Guy Caruso Administrator, Energy Information Administration Fueling the Future: Energy Policy in New England December 2, 25 Boston, MA
2 Trends in New England Energy Consumption, (quadrillion Btu) Petroleum Natural Gas Renewable Energy. Coal State Energy Data System
3 New England s Energy Picture in 21 New England United States 4 quadrillion Btu Total Energy Consumption 96 quadrillion Btu 257 million Btu Consumption per Capita 338 million Btu $35 billion Total Energy Expenditures $694 billion $2,473 Expenditures per Capita $2,433 Major Energy Sources Consumed by Share New England United States Petroleum 52% Petroleum 4% Nuclear 8% Natural Gas 22% Nuclear 1% Natural Gas 24% Coal 23% Renewables 5% Coal 6% Renewables 1% State Energy Data System
4 Characteristics of Households in New England in 21 New England 5.4 million Number of Households United States 17 million 54 percent With Natural Gas Access 73 percent 59 percent Using Air-Conditioning 76 percent 29 percent LIHEAP-Eligible 32 percent Main Space Heating Fuel New England United States Fuel Oil 5% Fuel Oil 7% Natural Gas 56% Other 4% LPG 2% Electricity 9% Natural Gas 35% Other 3% LPG 5% Electricity 29% Residential Energy Consumption Survey 21
5 Major Events and World Oil Prices dollars per barrel Oil Embargo Iran-Iraq War Begins Iranian Revolution Saudis abandon "swing producer" role Iraq Invades Kuwait Operation Desert Storm Strong Demand Growth OPEC cutbacks Venezuela Unrest 9/11 attacks Asian economic crisis; Iraq oil-for-food Refiner Acquisition Cost of Imported Crude Oil (Saudi Light Official Price for )
6 Shut-In Federal Offshore Gulf Crude Oil Production thousand barrels per day 2, WTI Crude Oil Price Shut In Capacity dollars per barrel 72 1,6 1, /22 9/5 9/19 1/3 1/17 1/31 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 42
7 Shut-In Gulf Coast Refinery Capacity thousand barrels per day 6, Retail Diesel Price 5, Retail Gasoline Price cents per gallon , , 25 2, Shut In Capacity , 8/22 9/5 9/19 1/3 1/17 1/ Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 19 16
8 Tight Global Markets Result in High Crude Oil Prices 25 dollars per barrel million barrels per day Jan-9 Jan-95 Jan- Jan WTI Spot Price World Spare Production Capacity
9 World Oil Demand Growth (million barrels per day) % 1.6% 2.2% OECD* Non-OECD Asia Former Soviet Union & E. Europe Other *Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development
10 World Oil Demand Growth (million barrels per day) United States China Average Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 25
11 U.S. Petroleum Products Demand Growth (thousand barrels per day) % 2.2% 2 -.8% Total Motor Gasoline Jet Fuel Fuel Oil Other Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 25
12 Shut-In Federal Offshore Gulf Natural Gas Production billion cubic feet per day 1 Henry Hub Price * Shut In Capacity dollars per thousand cubic feet /22 9/5 9/19 1/3 1/17 1/31 * Trading on Henry Hub suspended from 9/23 1/6 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
13 U.S. Natural Gas Spot Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet) Jan-2 Jan-3 Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 25
14 7 World Oil Price, (23 dollars per barrel) 6 5 High B Reference 4 $ $27.73 $ Annual Energy Outlook 25
15 U.S. Energy Consumption by Fuel, (quadrillion Btu) 6 5 Petroleum 4 3 Natural Gas Coal 2 1 Nuclear Nonhydropower Renewables Hydropower Annual Energy Outlook 25
16 U.S. Petroleum Production, Consumption, and Net Imports, (million barrels per day) Consumption 56% Net Imports 58% 1 Production Annual Energy Outlook 25
17 U.S. Natural Gas Wellhead Price, (23 dollars per thousand cubic feet) 6 5 $4.98 $ Annual Energy Outlook 25
18 U.S. Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Net Imports, (trillion cubic feet) 3 25 Consumption Net Imports 2% 2 15% Production Natural Gas Net Imports, 23 and 225 (trillion cubic feet) Pipeline Liquefied Natural Gas Annual Energy Outlook 25
19 Major Sources of Incremental Natural Gas Supply, (trillion cubic feet) 3 Growth in Alaskan Production 25 Growth in LNG Imports Growth in Non-Associated Unconventional 2 23 Production (all sources) Annual Energy Outlook 25
20 U.S. Natural Gas Consumption by Sector, (trillion cubic feet) 12 Industrial* Electric Generators Residential Commercial 2 Transportation** * Includes lease and plant fuel ** Includes pipeline fuel Annual Energy Outlook 25
21 U.S. Net Imports of Natural Gas, (trillion cubic feet) Liquefied Natural Gas Canada Mexico Annual Energy Outlook 25
22 U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel, (billion kilowatthours) 3, Coal 2, Natural Gas 1, Nuclear Renewables Petroleum Annual Energy Outlook 25
23 World Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, (quadrillion Btu) % 2 Natural Gas 25% Oil 24% 15 Coal 1 Renewables 8% 5 5% Nuclear Share of World Total International Energy Outlook 25
24 World Marketed Energy Consumption by Region, (quadrillion Btu) Mature Market Economies Emerging Economies Transitional Economies % 42% Share of World Total 12% International Energy Outlook 25
25 World Oil Consumption and Production, 22, 21, and 225 (million barrels per day) Consumption Mature Market Economies Emerging Asia Other Production OPEC Transitional Economies Other International Energy Outlook 25
26 World Oil Consumption by Region, 22, 215, and 225 (million barrels per day) Central & South America Africa Middle East Other Emerging Asia China Mature Market Economies Transitional Economies International Energy Outlook 25
27 World Oil Reserves by Country, as of January 1, 25 (billion barrels) Saudi Arabia Canada Iran Iraq Kuwait UAE Venezuela Russia Libya Nigeria United States China Qatar Mexico Algeria Brazil Kazakhstan Norway Azerbaijan Oman Rest of World World Total = 1,278 Billion Barrels Oil & Gas Journal, "Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production, Vol. 12, No. 47 (December 2, 24).
28 World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, 22, 215, and 225 (trillion cubic feet) Central & South America Africa Middle East Other Emerging Asia China Mature Market Economies Transitional Economies International Energy Outlook 25
29 World Natural Gas Reserves, as of January 1, 25, and Cumulative Consumption, (trillion cubic feet) Middle East Transitional Economies Africa Reserves Cumulative Consumption, Emerging Asia North America Central & South America Western Europe World Natural Gas Reserves = 6,4 Trillion Cubic Feet World Cumulative Consumption, = 2,954 Trillion Cubic Feet Mature Market Asia 5 1, 1,5 2, 2,5 3, International Energy Outlook 25 Oil & Gas Journal, "Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production, Vol. 12, No. 47 (December 2, 24)
30 World Shares of Energy Use for Electricity Generation, (percent) % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Renewables International Energy Annual 23 and International Energy Outlook 25
31 Periodic Reports Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly Annual Energy Outlook 25, December 24 International Energy Outlook 25, July 25 Examples of Special Analyses Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, March 24 The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, December 23 Renewable Fuels Legislation Impact Analysis, July 25 Guy Caruso
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