The future of Green Energy at the epicenter of the Energy Crisis

Transcription

1 The future of Green Energy at the epicenter of the Energy Crisis by Henk Zwart (Pr. Cert. Eng & Pr Eng) Electrical Consulting Engineer

2 Index Power Generation Perspective Major Misunderstanding Concept Green Energy Renewable Will it work? Conclusion

3 Sorry we are currently load shedding.. Please switch off everything..no please keep your TV switched ON.. Please do not use electricity..now you have to pay more for the electricity you do not use

4 Power Generation Perspective

5 Power Generation Perspective

6 Power Generation Perspective Typical Locations of Energy Sources

7 Power Generation Perspective

8 Installed Capacity MW today Power Generation Perspective

9 Power Generation Perspective May to July 11% Planned Maintenance Planned Maintenance

10 Power Generation Perspecitve Installed Capacity (MW) Existing Capacity New DSM New Nuclear New P Storage Total Demand (incl 15% reseve) Mothballed MW New Coal PF New CCGT New OCGT

11 Power Generation Perspective During 1994 Power Utility made active decision to move from cost + to profit margin Power Utility was warned that they will repeat USA (Texas) incident Problem with profit approach No maintenance, reduce expenditures Greedy mentality State owned All profits shared between State and Top management First indication of problem 2008 load shedding Efficiency and Reliability of Power Stations declining at a rapid pace Planned VS Unplanned Is it possible to remedy the situation? 20yrs of lacking maintenance Complete replacement required on critical equipment New build only replacing what is currently installed End users not in position to finance future build The Future? Load shedding permanently with us Costs of Electricity From cheapest in world to most expensive in world

12 Power Generation Perspective Power Utility Reliability Major concern as a result of inability to stop concerns Costs not a true reflection on the truth

13 Power Generation Perspective If The Power Utility crashes today.. There is no quick Fix Economy severely affected Negative growth at a rapid pace Downscaling of projects No investment Alternative supply Can be fast tract faster than building thermal power stations Comes at a Huge cost premium

14 Power Generation Perspective But We have a plan..

15 Major Misunderstanding Concept

16 Major Misunderstanding Concept Instantaneous available power Maximum Demand (MD) Average Power used in 30 minutes Instantaneous MD Substantially higher up to 20 x full load current on premium efficient motors Reserve power available from Power Utility For comparison VS

17 Major Misunderstanding Concept

18 Major Misunderstanding Concept Alternative Energy Source must be able to Supply instantaneous power to cater for starting of equipment Store energy Daily Photo Voltaic (PV) Energy Output Annual PV Energy Output Northern Hemisphere

19 Major Misunderstanding Concept To cater for diversified Energy Supply. Energy Plant must be designed for secondary losses Cater for Maximum Instantaneous power requirements Fast reaction to cope with transients Cope with bulk step loading Prevent Frequency drift There must be enough ka The Oomph. inertia Equates to large standby capacity High Capital Costs Pump motor Installed 1.1kW,use only No Capex payback for some solutions 0.6kW Motor power VS Resistive loads Heater Installed 3kW, Use 3kW R Cents/kWh R Cents/kWh R Cents/kWh Power Utility Diesel Generators Renewable Energy

20 Major Misunderstanding Concept Alternative Energy Source Co-generation to assist in daily power demand Self sustainability????? Distribution Cost Model Who pays? Internal Generation

21 Green Energy Renewable

22 Green Energy energy from a source that is not depleted when used, such as wind or solar power. "the environmental benefits of renewable energy" Renewable energy is generally defined as energy that comes from resources which are naturally replenished on a human timescale such as sunlight, wind, rain, tides, waves and geothermal heat Renewable energy (sources) or RES capture their energy from existing flows of energy, from on going natural processes, such as sunshine, wind, wave power, flowing water (hydropower), biological processes such as anaerobic digestion, and geothermal heat flow. Renewable energy:any energy resource that is naturally regenerated over a short time scale and derived directly from the sun (such as thermal, photochemical, and photoelectric), indirectly from the sun (such as wind, hydropower, and photosynthetic energy stored in biomass), or from other natural movements and mechanisms of the environment (such as geothermal and tidal energy). Renewable energy does not include energy resources derived from fossil fuels, waste products from fossil sources, or waste products from inorganic sources.

23 Green Energy

24 Green Energy Renewable Energy options. Sun This is the most abundant source available Wind Biomass Geothermal Home Power

25 Will it Work?

26 Will it Work? Renewable Energy rely entirely on availability of base load. (On grid) Power Utility must be able to guarantee capability Still a major Risk Each end user to be able to co-generate Reselling surplus Green Energy back to Power Utility Still an issue Costs will still be high When Power Utility fail to supply base load Every thing fails Standard House hold Must be able to store energy Battery life an issue State Of Charge (SOC) 80% of battery safe window Beyond 80% SOC rapid aging

27 Will it Work? Major changes required from the State. Co-Generation Tariff s Current peak demands are outside Solar (PV) availability???? Oops.. Energy must be stored increased costs Wind not reliable compared with Solar Sustainability Daily PV Energy Output

28 Will it Work? Industry Installed Base. Must be large energy farms Must be able to store surplus energy Peak tariff s are going to increase substantially

29 Will it Work? Load shedding direct impact. Will still be at risk To mitigate the inconvenience Install Green Energy Green Energy Solution must be sized to mitigate risk of no energy being available Self Sustainability. Projects to include self sustainability Open Space scarcity Premium costs per MJ/m²

30 Will it Work? Storing Energy. Technology is not environmental friendly Technology still in infant phase Advanced Energy Materials being developed for improved energy storage

31 Will it Work? We have no option available. Due to current situation with Power Utility, Green Energy is a must to survive You have been duly informed

32 Will it Work? Recap Designed correctly, Green Energy can work Costs for Home Power completely off the power grid >R Maintenance costs Battery replacement ±10yrs Earlier if SOC is exceeded Solar PV units replacement 15 to 20 yrs. Only upper class citizen can afford the costs Out of reach for middle class & worker class Security of systems under thread Securing PV panels must be considered Remote energy farms to be protected Energy = Growth No energy No growth

33 Will it Work? Recap Load Shedding strategy for Municipalities not paying Stage 2 & 3 permanently

34 Conclusion

35 Conclusion This presentation is completely based on fiction No deliberate reference was made to Eskom or South Africa Energy costs will become expensive You can either Adapt or die

36 Questions

37 Base load MW Peak load only 3 685MW Installed Capacity MW Installed Capacity MW