Renewable Energy: Opportunities and Challenges
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1 Renewable Energy: Opportunities and Challenges Ljubisa Stevanovic Chief Engineer, Advanced Technology GE Global Research, Niskayuna, NY Presented at inemi Alternative Energy Workshop Oct. 20, 2010, San Jose, CA Solarfarm
2 The world today Population Consumption Energy Security Environment facing big challenges 2 /
3 Driving realities Economic growth Oil prices Water scarcity GDP * US $10T $35T China $1T $44T India $.5T $28T 2010 $80/bbl 1999 $12.50/bbl % scarcity % scarcity China 44x U.S. 4x India 60x >5x volatility continues Impacts 2B people 3 / *Source: Goldman Sachs Oil Source: NYMEX Future Prices April 15, 2008
4 Electrical energy consumption 2010
5 growing to unprecedented levels 2030
6 bil KW-hr Electricity demand by ,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 TW hours Asia Africa Middle East Europe & EurAsia Central and S America North America emerging markets exploding Sources: EIA-DOE International Energy Annual 2004 & International Energy Outlook /
7 The growth can t be sustained
8 Efficiency Reliability Energy technologies for the 21 st century Diverse Efficient nuclear wind solar biomass hydro geothermal + Emissions Driving cost of electricity down Affordable, reliable & environmentally responsible 8 /
9 Renewables to the rescue? Global Wind & Solar PV annual installations (GWs) CAGR Source: REN update + EER 59 Strong growth to continue Solar PV Wind ~41% ~22% 50 countries installing wind power 66 countries with renewable targets US 20% wind 30 EU 20% Renewable Energy 20 China 100 GW Wind 12 India 20 GW Wind 12 Wind & Solar Zero fuel cost, zero CO 2 massive opportunity 9 / 9
10 Wind: the most economic, large scale renewable 20 Cost of electricity nearing mainstream 20 year levelized U.S. per kwhr ~30 15 ~8 ~7.5 ~6 ~8.0 ~10 10 Gas Coal Nuclear Basis: $8.00/MMBtu NG Wind Biomass Solar Technology driving down cost Higher efficiency Increased capacity factor More reliable 10 /
11 GE Wind business growth Up $4B Sales ($ in billions) $6 $6+ $4.8 $2.2 $3.2 GE installed base 13,800 wind turbines 21 GW (13% of world-wide installed base) '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 GE Company Proprietary 11 /
12 The potential of wind energy U.S. wind installations: 35 GW Total U.S. useable wind resources: 734 GWe (class 3 or higher and within 10 km of transmission lines) For comparison, U.S. total generating capacity is 1 TW 12 /
13 Near-infinite potential of solar energy, enough to satisfy world-wide electricity consumption in /
14 LCOE ($/kwh) Solar closing the cost gap $0.40 USA (CA) $0.35 Europe (Germany) Unsubsidized Solar LCOE - Ave $0.30 $0.25 $0.20 $0.15 $ yr CAGR +3% 14yr CAGR 9% $0.05 $0.00 LCOE: levelized cost of electricity 14 /
15 Challenges and opportunities: wind Ever-increasing scale of wind installations: Wind turbines: up to 5MW land based, over 5 MW offshore GW-scale wind farms Challenges: Severe civil, mechanical and electrical challenges. Difficult trade-offs Full conversion PE drives size, weight and complexity Most severe in offshore applications: tough environment, hard to access, expensive to maintain, stringent reliability requirements Opportunities: Develop better reliability prediction methods Develop more reliable power electronics for these applications 15 /
16 Challenges and opportunities: grid Wind farm impact on grid stability: Grid stability impacted by variability of renewables No simple remedy Utility-scale energy storage not practical Spinning reserve costly, defeats the purpose of renewables Load shedding requires smarter grid Recommended actions: Build a smarter grid with controls and communications for: Interactive balancing of supply/demand Automatic reconfiguration to prevent cascading outages 16 /
17 Challenges and opportunities: solar Deployment of large scale PV installations: Utility scale PV farms without strong reliability track-record Fast growth causing strains in supply chain Levelized cost of energy not at parity with fossils Recommended actions: Explore synergies with other industries/applications, e.g. UPS, wind converters 17 /
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