Science Advice in the Context of the Climate Challenge and the Energy Transition

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1 Science Advice in the Context of the Climate Challenge and the Energy Transition Miranda A. Schreurs Bavarian School of Public Policy Technical University of Munich

2 Ethics Commission for a Secure Energy Future: Deutschlands Energiewende

3 The German Advisory Council on the Environment

4 German Advisory Council on the Environment mission periodical evaluation of the environmental situation of the prevailing environmental policy facilitate the forming of opinion federal government states associations general public early warning identify misguided developments provider of ideas solution scenarios and approaches for the German and European environmental policy handing over of the environmental report 2008 in Berlin

5 German Advisory Council on the Environment disciplines natural sciences risk assessment, technology assessment, identification of misguided developments technology assessment of future technologies economy and law instruments and legal conditions policy science institutions, actors, structures

6 German Advisory Council on the Environment issues and activities issues SRU determines the issues of the reports and statements Federal Ministry for the Environment can commission additional reports and statements meetings SRU-meetings monthly in Berlin quarterly discussions with Federal Ministry debates with Federal Agency for Nature Conservation, Federal Environment Agency, events hearings (e.g. scientists, associations) presentations in public discussion meetings and conferences press conferences public hearing at the German Bundestag

7 German Advisory Council on the Environment products environmental reports special reports statements comments evaluation of the environmental situation and of environmental policy specific policy areas, complex challenges strategic political consulting short-term interjections

8 100% Renewable Electricity electricity supply 2050 assumptions target: emissions reduction of 80% until 2050 electricity demand can be supplied by renewables system conflict: base load versus volatile renewables today s agenda setting shapes emissions 2050 Grid extension and development of electricity storage is a big challenge special report publication February 2011

9 Governing a System Transformation Long-term Vision Where do we want to be in 2050? How might the world of 2050 look? What paths can be taken to get there? How to keep a transition affordable? How to keep a transition acceptable? How to make the transition efficient, flexible, reactive?

10 German Environment Advisory Council What would a market for a 100% renewable energy system based on fluctuating energy sources look like? How can a transition to this point be reached? What kind of new market systems are necessary? What kind of new governance models are needed?

11 Energy Governance Transitions European Dimension what if there is/isn t lots of grid interconnectivity? Regional dimension what if there is/isn t lots of regional grid interconnectivity? Storage capacity How much and by when? Grid development? How much and by when? Decentralization. How much and by when?

12 Regulatory Changes? What to do with the EEG? What to do to support reserve capacity? How to improve the Emissions trading system? Do we need a climate change law? How can public acceptance be achieved? Is achieving public acceptance the goal? When and how should the public be engaged in decision making processes?

13 Researching an Energy Transition The Helmholtz Alliance ENERGY-TRANS Transformation of the energy system

14 MULTI-LEVEL GOVERNANCE CHALLENGE/ MODES OF COORDINATION FFU 14

15 国家绿色转型治理能力研究 National Governance Capacity for Green Transformation 薛澜清华大学 XUE, Lan Tsinghua University, P. R. China 彼得 汉尼克德国伍珀塔尔研究所 Peter HENNICKE Wuppertal Institute, Germany 2015 年 11 月 November, 2015

16 课题组 Task Force 课题组长 Co-chairs 薛澜, 清华大学彼得 汉尼克, 德国伍珀塔尔研究所 课题组成员 Members 邓国胜, 清华大学王毅, 中科院科技政策与管理科学研究所夏光, 环保部环境与经济政策研究中心赵昌文, 国务院发展研究中心 XUE Lan, Tsinghua University Peter Hennicke, Wuppertal Institute (DENG Guosheng) (WANG Yi) (XIA Guang) (ZHAO Changwen) Claudia Buentjen, Asian Development Bank Lisa Jackson, Apple Inc. Robyn Kruk, Australian Department of Environment, Water, Heritage and Arts Daniel Mazmanian, University of South California Miranda Schreurs, Freie Universität Berlin 支持专家 Supporting Specialists 克里斯托弗 布施 ; 曹巧红 ; 龙迪 ; 胡颖廉 ; 李万新 ; 李颖明 ; 罗祎楠 ; 菲利普 舍佩尔曼 ; 宋紫峰 ; 辛华 ; 徐建华 ; 俞海 ; 张丛林 ; 张永亮 ; 赵勇 协调员 Coordinators: 潘翻番 ( 中方 ); 王佩珅 ( 外方 ) 特邀高级顾问 Distinguished Advisory Group

17 汇报内容 Contents I. 基本概念 : 绿色转型 Defining Green Transformation II. 国际借鉴 : 国际经验介绍 International Experiences in Building Governance Capacity III. 分析框架 : 实现绿色转型所需要的治理能力 The Framework for Analyzing National Governance Capacity IV. 现实挑战 : 绿色转型治理能力的不足 Deficiencies in National Governance Capacity V. 政策建议 : 提高绿色转型治理能力的路线图与具体建议 Roadmap and Policy Recommendations for Improving Governance Capacity for Green Transformation

18 2050: Climate Neutral Berlin

19 Scientific advice for policy-makers WBGU Established 1992 (Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro) as a politically independent scientific advisory body to the German Federal Government The WBGU has the task to analyse global environment and development problems submit policy proposals monitor and assess international policies on global change provide early warnings on new, emerging issues and topics review and evaluate national and international research identify gaps in research and initiate new research raise public awareness All WBGU publications available in German and English.

20 Members Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (Co-Chair), Physicist Dirk Messner (Co-Chair), Political Scientist Frauke Kraas, Geographer Claus Leggewie, Political Scientist Peter Lemke, Physicist Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Energy Economist Sabine Schlacke, Lawyer Uwe Schneidewind, Economist

21 Structure Scientific Advice for Policy-Makers: The German Advisory Council on Global Change 9 Council Members four years term nomination of Council Members submission of reports GERMAN FEDERAL GOVERNMENT Federal Cabinet funding ministries: - research - environment Interministerial Working Group WBGU scientific and logistic support by: WBGU Secretariat GERMAN PARLIAMENT (BUNDESTAG, BUNDESRAT) Media UN International Organisations Scientific Community NGOs Civil Society - Distribution of reports as official documents - Presentations in Committees and Working Groups Source: WBGU

22 (...) Publications Sustainable Energy Systems (2003) Poverty and Environmental Policy (2004) The Future Oceans Warming Up, Rising High, Turning Sour (2006) Climate Change as Security Risk (2007) Future Bioenergy and Sustainable Land use (2008) Solving the climate dilemma: The budget approach (2009) A Social Contract for Sustainability (2011) Governing the Marine Heritage (2013) Policy Papers Urbanisation (approx. 2016, Habitat III) Fact sheets Results of IPCC AR 5 + Climate Treaty 2015 Sustainable Development Goals...and:

23 Presentations, public lectures and panel discussions, on national and international level at side events of UN conferences in committees of the Deutsche Bundestag before academia in public debates through press articles and other media Providing platforms for debates (organisation of symposia, panel discussions etc.) Beyond publications Examples for further activities Assessment of the outcomes of international negotiations in the field of environment and development (mostly as press release) Flagship report Transformation as e-learning package for universities

24 GERMAN COUNCIL FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

25 Overall lead: Fed Chancellery ad personam multi stakeholder approach

26 NATIONAL SUSTAINABILITY STRATEGY Progress Reports Management Rules Sustainability Indicators

27 RECOMMENDATION: RESOURCE POLITICS 100% closed-loop economy Product stewardship resource stewardship Many dimensions of scarcity Product design, recycling, beyond efficiency Roadmaps