Development of a prototype for the European Drought Observatory

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1 WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September Session 3: Drought Data, Analysis, and Mapping: Perspectives from Europe Development of a prototype for the European Drought Observatory at JRC Stefan Niemeyer IES - Institute for Environment and Sustainability Ispra - Italy

WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, 20.-24. September 2010 2 What is the Joint Research Centre?

2 WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September What is the Joint Research Centre? The JRC is a Directorate General of the European Commission European Commission 27 Commissioners CCR DG RECHERCHE DG BUDGET DG AGRICULTURE DG Ms Maire Geoghegan-Quinn European Commissioner for Research, Innovation, Science DG RESEARCH DG JRC DG ENVIRONMENT OTHER DGs

3 WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September What is the Joint Research Centre? European Commission

4 WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September The Institute for Environment and Sustainability a Research Based Policy Support Provider

5 WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September IES Mission Statement The mission of the Institute for Environment and Sustainability is to provide scientifictechnical support to the European Union s Policies for the protection and sustainable development of the European and global environment.

6 WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September Organisational Chart IES 2010 Director Leen HORDIJK Advisor of the Director Peter PÄRT Programme Manager Pamela KENNEDY H01 Management Support Unit Neil HUBBARD Total staff: > 400 H02 Climate Change Unit Frank RAES H03 Global Environment Monitoring Unit Alan BELWARD H04 Transport and Air Quality Unit Alois KRASENBRINK (acting) H05 Rural, Water and Ecosystem Resources Unit Giovanni BIDOGLIO H06 Spatial Data Infrastructures Unit Alessandro ANNONI H07 Land Management and Natural Hazards Unit Guido SCHMUCK H08 Sustainable Assessment Guido Schmuck (acting)

WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, 20.

Laboratories (VELA 1-7) European Reference Laboratory for Air Pollution (ERLAP) High

3 Mobile Labs EMEP/GAW Super Site (Climate Monitoring) at the JRC Ispra Greenhouse Gas Flux

7 WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September Technical Infrastructures for Environmental Research Vehicle Emission Laboratories (VELA 1-7) European Reference Laboratory for Air Pollution (ERLAP) High Performance Analytical Laboratories, incl. 3 Mobile Labs EMEP/GAW Super Site (Climate Monitoring) at the JRC Ispra Greenhouse Gas Flux Measurement Towers San Rossore and Parco del Ticino Marine measurement stations in the Adriatic and Baltic Sea European Solar Testing Installation (ESTI)

8 WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September Key Information Systems and Databases Technical Secretariat of INSPIRE / European Geoportal Water Information System for Europe (WISE) European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) European Flood Alert System (EFAS) European Reference System for Renewable Energies WMO World Data Centre for Aerosols Radioactivity Environmental Monitoring Database (REM) European Soil Database Global Land Cover 2000 Database

September 2010 9 Broad Customer Base DG Environment DG Agriculture and

Development, DG EuropeAid DG Regional Policy DG Eurostat DG Research DG

9 WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September Broad Customer Base DG Environment DG Agriculture and Rural Development DG Transport and Energy DG External Relations, DG Development, DG EuropeAid DG Regional Policy DG Eurostat DG Research DG Enterprise and Industry DG Health and Consumer Protection European Environment Agency UN Organizations (UNEP, WMO, etc.)

WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, 20.-24.

10 WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September Land Management & Natural Hazards Unit Core task Scientific support for EU policies regarding Sustainable use of the EU s land Preservation of the quality of soils Protection of forests Floods, droughts, and forest fires - alerts and impacts. Activities European Flood Alert and Forest Monitoring System Monitoring and land use changes The European Soil Reference System European drought detection, monitoring, and forecasting Guido Schmuck Special Infrastructures European Flood Alert System (EFAS) European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) European Drought Observatory (EDO)

11 Rational Droughts in Europe WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September st Interim Report of the Water Scarcity and Droughts Expert Network, Nov (cited in the Communication on WS&D of the European Commission to the European Parliament in 2007, COM(2007) 414 final) The number of areas and people affected by droughts [in Europe] went up by almost 20 % between 1976 and One of the most widespread droughts occurred in 2003 when over 100 million people and a third of the EU territory were affected. The cost of the damage to the European economy was at least 8.7 billion. The total cost of droughts over the past thirty years amounts to 100 billion. The yearly average cost quadrupled over the same period.

12 EU Policy on Water Scarcity & Drought WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September

13 EU Policy on Water Scarcity & Drought WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September since 2005 Water Scarcity & Droughts Expert Network within Common Implementation Strategy of the Water Framework Directive 2006/07 first in-depth assessment 2007 Communication on WS&D (COM/2007/0414 final): initial set of policy options work programme , 2009 Follow-up reports on implementation of policy options April 2010 Stakeholder Meeting, Brussels by 2012 Blueprint to Safeguard European Waters, including a review of the EU policy on Water Scarcity and Droughts Commission flagship initiative on resource efficiency, as part of the EU2020 Strategy

14 EU Policy on Water Scarcity & Drought WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September Work programme of the Communication on WS&D: 1. Putting the right price tag on water 2. Allocating water and water-related funding more efficiently 3. Improving drought risk management Developing an observatory and an early-warning system on droughts 4. Considering additional water supply infrastructures 5. Fostering water-efficient technologies and practices 6. Fostering the emergence of a water-saving culture in Europe 7. Improving knowledge and data collection

EU Policy on Water Scarcity & Drought WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, 20.-24.

into account the protection of the environment co-financed between the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD) and the Member States.

15 EU Policy on Water Scarcity & Drought WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September other instruments: Rural Development Regulation ((EC) No 1698/2005), DG AGRI: the second pillar of the Common Agricultural Policy takes into account the protection of the environment co-financed between the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD) and the Member States. Structural and Cohesion Funds, DG REGIO: provide some means to co-finance capital-intensive investments in water infrastructure and help EU Member States comply with water legislation

16 Long-term Objectives in the Field of Droughts WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September Drought Current set-up within DESERT Action: Development of a prototype of the European Drought Observatory (EDO) Contribution to the development of a global Early Warning System (EWS) for Desertification Development of a new World Atlas of Desertification Development of benchmarks and indicators for drought, water scarcity, and desertification Training (assessment, monitoring, mitigation drought and desertification) Networking, in-house research, policy advice

17 Activities in the Field of Droughts WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September /99: First Activity on Drought under Natural Hazards : Int. Workshop on Drought and Drought Mitigation in Europe 2004/05: Extending the European Flood Alert System towards Drought Monitoring (Pilot Study) since 2005: since 2007: since 2008: Member of the WFD Expert Group on Water Scarcity and Droughts First Drought Monitoring Products online (experimental) - Commission Communication on Water Scarcity & Droughts Institutional Action on Drought and Desertification (DESERT) - EDO Map Server on the internet - Follow-up Process of Communication on WS&D - Collaboration Agreement with EARS on DMCSEE-EDO 2008/10: XEROCHORE project on Drought Risk in Europe 2009/12: EUROGEOSS project on Data Exchange and Interoperability 2010: First interoperability arrangements for EDO, towards a drought portal Development of Prototype of the European Drought Observatory (EDO) by 2012

18 Collaboration IES - EARS WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September Parties: The Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia (EARS) The Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES) of the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission Official Collaboration Agreement signed in April 2008 Objective: to foster and mutually support the development of 1. Drought Management Centre of South East Europe (DMCSEE) in the frame of UNCCD and WMO 2. European Drought Observatory at JRC / European Commission Activities: scientific exchange and mutual support in R&D joint R&D activities, harmonisation of methodologies training and dissemination

19 Collaboration IES - EARS WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September

20 Vision of a European Drought Observatory WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September WWW-based platform for drought monitoring, detection, and forecasting Multi-scale approach, integrating continental (EU), national (MS), regional, and river basin scale information Real-time monitoring and forecasting products for preparedness and early warning Commonly agreed set of products that are produced routinely on all spatial scales e.g. SPI, Q95, soil moisture anomaly, De-central data holding and management, but direct linking and exchange between different levels by common standards & formats Allows for seamless up- and downscaling, comparison, analysis, and validation Implementation based on INSPIRE principles A knowledge-based platform for discussion and exchange Regular feedback process between all levels for comparison and improvement Annual user community workshops

21 Drought Information in Europe Current State WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September European Level Activities: International Organisations (e.g. EC-JRC, ECMWF, ESA, ) no focus specifically on droughts various products (meteorological, hydrological, remote sensing, often experimental), but not specifically tailored to droughts National Activities: many players: competent Ministries, meteorological services, water agencies, research institutes, several information systems with information on water, landuse, agriculture, but few focused on droughts such as a National Drought Observatory Regional and local Activities: level of operational water management often high availability / detail of data stand-alone, usually not connected to outside area of interest (spatially, thematically)

Drought Information in Europe Example of Spain WMO

Monitoring and Forecasting SPI monitoring fapar

yp Ministerio de Medio Ambiente (MARM) Observatorio

22 Drought Information in Europe Example of Spain WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September Joint Research Centre Drought Monitoring and Forecasting SPI monitoring fapar anomaly Soil Moisture anomaly and forecasting p g y p yp Ministerio de Medio Ambiente (MARM) Observatorio Nacional de la Sequía Sistema Integrado de Información del Agua (SIA) e.g. drought indicator, actual ET, Confederación Hidrográfica del Ebro SAIH Ebro, SITEbro Evolucción de la reserva hidraulica

A European Drought Observatory WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, 20.-24.

23 A European Drought Observatory WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September Platform for drought detection and monitoring, forecasting, and information exchange Commonly agreed products (e.g. drought indices) Joint comparison and analysis of information Mutual exchange of knowledge & methodologies Direct up- and downscaling Multi-scale approach, integrating Continental level MS level Regional level Respecting INSPIRE principles Subsidiarity principle European level information (+ platform) to be developed and managed at JRC National datasets managed at MS level Regional information processed by river basin / regional environmental authorities

24 Drought Water Scarcity WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September Communication on Water Scarcity and Drought COM(2007)414final EDO JRC yearly water scarcity indicators yearly aggregated drought indicators WS&D-IS EEA Global Drought Monitoring System European Reporting and Information System (WISE) Network Network

25 EDO Map Viewer WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September

26 EDO - Current State WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September hydrological model: soil moisture estimates, anomalies, one-week forecast monthly SPI calculations for 1, 3, 6, 9, 12 month av. period testing: monthly forecasts of SPI-3 10-day fapar estimates and its anomaly anomalies from merged MERIS+SEAWiFS data 10-day NDWI estimates from MODIS (2006 onwards) NUTS-3 spatial averages for SPI, sm+anomaly timeseries per NUTS3 of SPI and sm+anomaly since 2000

27 EDO - Current State WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September twice daily simulation runs of LISFLOOD model on Linux cluster meteorological forecasts: 7-day from DWD, 14-day & monthly from ECMWF fapar produced at ESA/ESRIN, algorithm developed at JRC (Nadine Gobron) fapar anomalies produced at JRC (IDL, Linux cluster) NDWI produced at JRC (IDL, Linux cluster) under development: database for drought products averaging in NUTS regions, etc. timeseries generation on the fly data download

28 EDO - Current State WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September access to external drought information SPI from DMCSEE Drought Index of National Drought Obsevatory of Spain search & display EuroGEOSS Drought Metadata Catalogue soon (autumn 2010): regional drought product of Ebro River Basin Authority national and regional drought products from BRGM, France... all by service-based interoperability arrangements other: map of links to national and regional drought resources in Europe

for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, 20.-24.

29 EDO Meteorological Drought Products WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September monthly precipitation anomaly (SPI)

30 EDO Meteorological Drought Products WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September Time series are calculated for all NUTS3 regions.

31 JRC, 2010 EDO Soil Moisture Drought Products WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September Regional Soil Moisture Anomaly Time series are calculated for all NUTS3 regions.

32 JRC, 2010 EDO Soil Moisture Drought Products WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September Regional Soil Moisture Anomaly Time series are calculated for all NUTS3 regions.

33 JRC, 2010 EDO Soil Moisture Drought Products WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September Current Soil Moisture Estimates wet normal dry

34 JRC, 2010 EDO Soil Moisture Drought Products WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September Current Soil Moisture Anomaly wetter normal drier

35 EDO Remote Sensing Products WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September fapar Anomaly from ESA ENVISAT/ MERIS

EDO Remote Sensing Products WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, 20.-24.

36 EDO Remote Sensing Products WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September fapar for Spain derived from ESA ENVISAT/MERIS June-August 2008 (10-day periods) fapar Anomaly compared to SPI-3 drought

37 Current State - JRC WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September MODIS NDWI 10-day composite

-24. September 2010 38 Summer drought south-east Europe 2007

38 EDO Remote Sensing Products WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September Summer drought south-east Europe 2007 MODIS NDWI(6) anomaly images May-September 2007 experimental!

39 JRC, 2010 EDO Drought Forecast Products: Soil Moisture WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September one week forecast of soil moisture conditions in Europe / trend wetter normal drier

40 JRC, 2010 EDO Drought Forecast Products: Soil Moisture WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September one week forecast of soil moisture anomaly in Europe

EDO Drought Forecast Products: SPI WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for

September 2010 41 SPI forecasting using ECMWF monthly forecasts 3 monthly SPI The

the past two months, and then the 3-months forecasted SPI is calculated 2 - monthly

41 EDO Drought Forecast Products: SPI WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September SPI forecasting using ECMWF monthly forecasts 3 monthly SPI The precipitation forecast for the next month is added to the accumulated observed rainfall of the past two months, and then the 3-months forecasted SPI is calculated 2 - monthly cumulative precipitation map ECMWF monthly forecast average over 50 ensemble forecasts SPI calculation using historical time series forecasted 3 monthly SPI

EDO Drought Forecast Products: SPI WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, 20.

42 EDO Drought Forecast Products: SPI WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September Comparison of observed and forecasted SPI (August - 05) observed 3 monthly SPI forecasted 3 monthly SPI

43 EDO Drought Forecast Products: SPI WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September Next step: Probabilistic SPI forecasting Ensemble predictions Observations very wet very dry

September 2010 44 Forecasted Probability for SPI < -1.

44 EDO Drought Forecast Products: SPI WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September Forecasted Probability for SPI < month Probabilistic Forecast of SPI-3 January 2007 Observed SPI Probability that SPI-3 for the next month is severe dry or worse still experimental!

45 The Way Forward WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September Portal for European Drought Observatory: System Development Start-up with the pilot version of EDO, European overview level Stepwise integration of drought information from pilot MS and regions Bottom-up approach, increasing level of complexity Interoperability arrangements, drought data search & display Research and Development Drought indices (e.g. comprehensive DI; development, testing, validation) Drought forecasting (monthly forecast products) Data exchange, standards and protocols (EUROGEOSS project) Drought impact monitoring, exploiting European Media Monitor information Networking EEA: exchange of data and indicators EU scientific community (e.g. EUROGEOSS, EDC, ) Global exchange and networking (e.g., US NDMC/NIDIS, UNCCD, GEO, ) Regular consultation with national and regional stakeholders

46 Future Development - JRC WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September extend EDO to a European Drought Portal giving access to map viewer, metadata catalogue, and other drought-relevant information extend internal collaboration (e.g. FWI from EFFIS, low flows from EFAS, yield forecasts from MARS) continuously improving, inter-comparing, and verifying drought products implement and validate integrated ( comprehensive ) drought index implement multi-scale approach by linking to an increasing number of national and regional drought information systems (ES, DMCSEE, ) extend to larger European window, fill gaps external collaborations (e.g. DMCSEE, EDC, Spanish partners, NDMC) EDO as a cornerstone within a global network of drought observatories towards a Global Drought Early Warning System (e.g. GEO, WMO)

47 Vision of European Drought Observatory WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September Fast access through web portal - Seamless up- and downscaling - Comparison and analysis - New perspectives for R&D

48 WMO Training Workshop on Drought Risk Assessment for the Agricultural Sector, Ljubljana, September thank you!

Drought Activities at JRC - Development of a prototype for the European Drought Observatory

1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, 21.-25. September 2009 1 Drought Activities at JRC - Development of a prototype for the European Drought Observatory IES - Institute for Environment