Increased Demands - Globally and Locally

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1 Increased Demands - Globally and Locally Energy Minerals Water Fisheries Subsistence Marine Shipping Routes Ecosystem Services/Healthy Environment Recreation and Tourism Preserved Natural Habitat

2 Increase Demand for Resources and Population Growth Is Occurring at a Time Of Rapid Environmental Change Cayan et al., 2001

3 Non-fossil energy use grows rapidly, but fossil fuels still provide 78 percent of total energy use in 2035 quadrillion Btu History Projections Renewables (excluding liquid biofuels) Liquid fuels Liquid biofuels Coal Natural gas Nuclear Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010

4 For US electrical generation natural gas and renewables account for the majority of capacity additions from 2008 to 2035 Nuclear 101 (10%) Other renewables 40 (4%) Hydropower* 99 (10%) 2008 capacity 1,008 gigawatts Coal 312 (31%) Other renewables 92 (37%) Capacity additions 2008 to 2035 Nuclear 8 (3%) Hydropower* 1 (0.4%) 250 gigawatts Coal 31 (12%) Other 119 (12%) Other 2 (1%) Natural gas 116 (46%) Natural gas 338 (33%) * Includes pumped storage Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010

5 Faster, Better, Cheaper Easier to Promise Than Deliver It s going further and faster with fewer people and with a smaller budget. If we re successful, I think we ll raise the bar on the whole faster, better, cheaper mantra to a new level to a level that s not been attained by anyone else. Dr. Sam Thurman, flight operations manager for the Mars Orbiter at JPL, Sept 17, 1999 in JPL UNIVERSE An in-depth review of NASA's Mars exploration program, released today, found significant flaws in formulation and execution led to the failures of recent missions, and provides recommendations for future exploration of Mars. Our review confirmed that mistakes can be prevented by applying experienced oversight, sufficient testing, and independent analysis. MARS PROGRAM ASSESSMENT REPORT March 28, 2000

6 No Free Lunch: All New Sources of Energy Have Their Own Unique Environmental Challenges: Biomass/Water USGS/EIA 6

7 Local A Research Portfolio Requires Planned Investment Across Multiple Scales and Disciplines Spatial Extent State National Global Geologic Time Real Fundamental Research Focus Specific Problem Solving

8 Getting North Slope Gas to Market 2 8 Possible Bullet/Spur Line Routes TAPS Corridor Overland Mainline 1. Alaska Pipeline Project (APP) a) Overland Mainline Route b) LNG Route c) Alaska Off-take points, including spur line options 2. Denali Pipeline Project a) Overland Mainline Route b) Alaska off-take points, including spur line options 3. Bullet Line Asian Markets LNG Routes Boundary Lake Empress Alberta Hub Chicago Hub Henry Hub

9 DNR/DGGS Is Acquiring Lidar with Support From OFC Public data along infrastructure corridor serves many purposes for this and other projects 1,579,346 Acres Remote sensing technology Laser pulses determine the position and other characteristics of imaged features 9

10 Local A Research Portfolio Requires Planned Investment Across Multiple Scales and Disciplines Spatial Extent State National Global Geologic Time Real Fundamental Research Focus Specific Problem Solving

11 Natural Gas Hydrates Model of methane hydrate s cage-like structure in which methane (green/gray molecules)are enclosed - without direct chemical bonding - in voids within a solid water lattice DOE/USGS

12 Natural Gas Hydrates Largest Known Potential Source of Natural Gas

13 The Evolution of Commercial Natural Gas Production Natural Gas Hydrates? 2010 Shale Gas Tight Gas Sands Coalbed Methane Non-Associated Conventional Conventional Associated With Oil

14 AN INTERAGENCY ROADMAP FOR METHANE HYDRATE RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT IN ALASKA Methane Hydrate Research and Development Act of 2000 (the MHR&D Act; 30 USC 1902), as amended by Section 968 of Public Law (The Energy Policy Act of 2005) (DOE OFFICE OF FOSSIL ENERGY,2006)

15 Hydrate Distribution within the North Slope Production Infrastructure USGS estimates 33 in-place resource in Eileen Trend Eileen trend gas hydrate beneath ANS industry infrastructure within the Milne Point Unit, Prudhoe Bay Unit, and Kuparuk River Unit areas (Hunter and others 2007).

16 Mackenzie Delta Hydrate Test Photo: Canada-Japan Mallik Project Six-day 2008 Mallik 5L-38 depressurization had average flow rates of 70 Mcf/D, with peak rates as high as 160 Mcf/D (Grace et al. 2008, Sloan et al, 2009)

17 Mt. Elbert Stratigraphic Test Well Milne Point in February, 2007 Significantly Advanced Our Knowledge of North Slope Hydrates Confirmed Seismic Identification of Accumulation 430 Feet of Core Recovered Pressure and Short Term Test Data Well Successfully Produced Natural Gas Hydrates to Surface DOE and Hunter (2007)

18 Factors Necessary For Commercialization of Arctic Methane Hydrates Identification of Resource Production Technology Favorable Economics Modeling and reservoir production simulations of North Slope hydrate accumulations within high quality sandstone reservoirs indicate that production using existing technologies could be commercially viable

19 Large Arctic Energy Projects Typically Take a Decade or Longer Project timeline showing Key Milestones 19

20 ANS Oil Production and Oil and Gas Potential Fall 2009 Revenue Sources Book State of Alaska 20

21 Perspective Often Based on Real or Perceived Benefit Fall 2009 Revenue Sources Book State of Alaska 21

22 Conflicting Values and Perspective Environment Human Health and Other Societal Values Economy Targeted Research and Decision Support Tools Can Eliminate, Minimize Conflicts and Uncertainty