EIA Short-Term Energy and

Transcription

1 EIA Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook Washington, DC U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

2 Overview EIA expects higher average fuel bills this winter in states east of the Rocky Mountains. A return to a near-normal winter is the main driver of higher expenditures. Projected changes in residential prices from last winter are: 1% higher natural gas prices 2% lower electricity prices 2% higher heating oil prices 4% lower propane prices Forecast average household expenditures for heating oil users are at their highest level ever. 2

3 Heating fuel market shares vary regionally Number of homes by primary space heating fuel and Census Region, winter Midwest Northeast West natural gas electricity heating oil propane wood kerosene/other/no heating South DC U.S. total 115 million homes Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October

4 Expenditures are expected to increase this winter (October 1 March 31) for all fossil fuels Percent change in fuel bills from last winter (forecast) Fuel bill Base case forecast If 10% warmer than forecast If 10% colder than forecast Heating oil Natural gas Propane * Electricity * Propane expenditures are a volume-weighted average of the Northeast and Midwest regions. All others are U.S. volume-weighted averages. Propane prices in warm and cold cases are not available. Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October

5 Forecast fuel prices are close to last winter s averages % change in fuel price 35% 30% compared with last winter 25% compared with 5-year average 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% natural gas electricity heating oil propane Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October

6 The U.S. winter heating season forecast is about 2% warmer than the 30-year average, but 18% colder than last winter U.S. current population-weighted heating degree-days 1, Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar (NOAA forecast) Note: Horizontal bars indicate monthly average degree days over the period Source: EIA calculations based on NOAA state history and forecasts (August 15, 2012) weighted by same-year populations. 6

7 Natural Gas 7

8 Higher natural gas consumption raises average fuel bills in the Midwest, Northeast, and South this winter Share of all U.S. households that use natural gas as primary space heating fuel Percent change from last winter (forecast) Consumption Average Total Average price Total expenditures South Midwest Northeast West 26% % 31% 20% Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October

9 EIA expects residential natural gas prices to closely follow last winter s prices Dollars per thousand cubic feet (mcf) History Residential price Forecast Winter Henry Hub spot price 0 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October

10 But, future natural gas prices remain highly uncertain Dollars per million Btu 8 History Forecast Henry Hub spot price 7 STEO price forecast NYMEX Henry Hub futures price 6 68% NYMEX confidence interval 95% NYMEX confidence interval Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2012, and CME Group 10

11 The probability of the January 2013 Henry Hub natural gas price being higher than $5.00 per MMBtu is about 5% probability of exceedance 40% 37% 30% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% > $4.00 / MMBtu > $4.50 / MMBtu > $5.00 / MMBtu Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2012, and CME Group 11

12 EIA expects natural gas inventories to remain at high levels billion cubic feet History Forecast 4,500 10% warmer 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, % colder Base case 0 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Note: Normal range (colored band) represents the range between the minimum to maximum from Jan to Dec Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October

13 Electricity 13

14 Winter electricity bill forecasts also higher because of return to near-normal colder weather east of the Rockies Share of all U.S. households that use electricity as primary space Percent change from last winter (forecast) Average price Total expenditures heating fuel Consumption price expenditures West 19% South 62% Midwest 12% Northeast 6% Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October

15 Heating Oil 15

16 EIA expects residential heating oil prices to average 2% higher this winter than last dollars per gallon 5 4 Home heating oil retail price Winter Forecast Brent crude oil spot price 0 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Home heating oil retail price includes taxes. Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October

17 The growing divergence between heating oil and natural gas prices slows this winter with heating oil price up 2% and natural gas price 1% higher U.S. average residential winter heating fuel prices dollars per million Btu natural gas heating oil history forecast Winter (October - March) Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October

18 Heating oil prices remain uncertain due to their dependence on crude oil prices dollars per gallon 5 History Forecast Heating oil U.S. average wholesale price STEO heating oil wholesale price forecast 1 NYMEX N.Y. harbor heating oil futures prices 68% NYMEX confidence interval 95% NYMEX confidence interval 0 Jan 2011 Jul 2011 Jan 2012 Jul 2012 Jan 2013 Jul 2013 Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2012, and CME Group 18

19 The probability of January 2013 heating oil wholesale price being higher than $3.50 per gallon is about 14% probability of exceedance 60% 58% 50% 40% 30% 20% 14% 10% 0% 1% > $3.00 / gallon > $3.50 / gallon > $4.00 / gallon Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2012, and CME Group 19

20 Going into winter, distillate inventories remain at the low end of their normal range million barrels History Forecast % warmer Base case % colder Note: Normal range (colored band) represents the range between the minimum to maximum from Jan to Dec Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October

21 EIA expects gasoline prices will fall from the recent peak, with regular gasoline prices this winter averaging about 4 cents per gallon higher than last winter Dollars per gallon 5 History Winter Forecast 4 3 Regular gasoline retail 2 1 Brent crude oil Price difference 0 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Regular gasoline retail price includes state and federal taxes. Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October

22 Over the last 8 winters, residential heating oil prices have increased more than retail gasoline prices Retail gasoline heating oil price difference (dollars per gallon) history forecast Heating oil more expensive Winter (October - March) Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2012, and CME Group 22

23 Propane 23

24 Forecast propane expenditures also higher than last winter because of colder weather and increased demand Share of all U.S. households that use propane as primary space heating fuel Percent change from last winter (forecast) Consumption Average Total Average price Total expenditures West 16% South Midwest 34% 36% Northeast 14% Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October

25 Propane inventories remain near the high end of their historical range during the upcoming winter million barrels History Forecast 80 10% warmer History 10% colder Base case Note: Normal range (colored band) represents the range between the minimum to maximum from Jan to Dec Source: EIASh Short-Term Energy Outlook, October

26 For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Energy Outlook International Energy Outlook Monthly Energy Review 26