Norwegian companies show pioneer spirit in solar technology but will the industry have a future in Norway? By Ragnar Tronstad Director R&D, Elkem

Transcription

1 Norwegian companies show pioneer spirit in solar technology but will the industry have a future in Norway? By Ragnar Tronstad Director R&D, Elkem

2 Content General trends in Solar industry Norwegian pioneers and attractive producers Cost and quality Who will survive? 2

3 GENERAL TRENDS IN SOLAR INDUSTRY 3

4 Solar Grade Silicon February 2011 Last weeks prices between $23,7 and $26 per kg. Down 7-14% from last month 2 nd grade $21,9/kg, down 13% from last month Lowest reported price being $21 No new long term contracts being registered 4 Source: Photon, Pvinsight, Ryan s Notes, EnergyTrend, BNEF

5 Wafer, Cell and Module prices Development MoM YoY Mono Wafer -1,2% -57% Multi Wafer -2,5% -67% Development MoM YoY Module -3,2% -35% Multi Cell -4,7% -51% Mono Cell -3,8% -59% 5 Source: Pvinsight, Ryan s Notes, EnergyTrend, BNEF

6 Solar grade Si situation in China Source:Songcheng Zheng 6

7 Renewables, and solar energy in particular, will have to provide a lion s share of future energy needs One scenario for future energy mix (solar intensive): Main drivers: Increased energy consumption High and rising energy prices Environmental challenges! A large number of people globally without electricity 7 Developing people - creating value

8 NORWEGIAN PIONEERS AND ATTRACTIVE PRODUCERS 8

9 Production of polysilicon 1) No recycling of STC Production of Metallurgical grade silicon (MG-Si) SiO 2 (s) + 2C(s) Si(l) + 2CO(g) (Source: A. Schei et al., 1998) Generation of TCS from Metallurgical grade Si Reaction: Si(s) + 3HCl(g) SiHCl 3 (g) + H 2 (g) TCS Separation of TCS by distillations Decomposition into polysilicon Removes Boron as BH 3 and Phosphorus as PCl 3 and POCl 3 Decomposition reaction, simplified: ~1100 C 4SiHCl 3 (g) Si(s) + 3SiCl 4 (g) + 2H 2 (g) TCS (Source: CDI, STC 9 (Source: Developing people - creating value

10 Pioneer PV processes Agglomeration SiC production Si reduction Separation Filtering Solidification Post treatment Si reduction Slag treatment Leaching Solidification Post treatment Evonik:Solsilc process Elkem Solar: ESS process All process steps are based on unit processes commonly used in metallurgical industry. World class experience and basic knowledge in Norway 10

11 Technical experties reason for international interrest in Norwegian metallurgical industry Elkem Mn division Elkem FeCr plant Elkem AS Fesil Sunergy Solar Holla plant Tinfos Arendal SiC Eramet VALE China National Bluestar Evonik Wacker Eramet Saint Gobain 11

12 Producers of SoG-Si with alternative production processes 12 Producers Timminco JFE Dow Corning Crystal System Evonik Solar Jaco Ferro Atlantica 6N (Silicor materials) Clean Silicon Norwegian Silicon Refinery Elkem Solar. Technologies Leaching Slag treatment Directional solidification Raw material purification Electron beam Plasma Gas bubbling through melt Electrolysis Purification in Al

13 COST AND QUALITY 13

14 EPBT for production of SoG Si From full Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)* Elkem Solar 6000 MT / yr plant 1700 kwh/m 2 /yr 14.3% Module eff. Modified Siemens = with TCS recycling ** 14 * SimaPro + Ecoinvent 2.2 used in LCA calculations ** Modified Siemens EU = Best case Siemens - all electricity from Hydro Power, all heat from cogeneration power plants

15 GHG emissions from production of SoG Si From full Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)* Elkem Solar 6000 MT / yr plant 1700 kwh/m 2 /yr 14.3% Module eff. Modified Siemens = with TCS recycling ** 15 * SimaPro + Ecoinvent 2.2 used in LCA calculations ** Modified Siemens EU = Best case Siemens - all electricity from Hydro Power, all heat from cogeneration power plants

16 Metals in ESS Samples from ESS are analyzed by Neutron Activation Analysis (NAA) and Glow Discharge Mass Spectrometry (GDMS). The reporting laboratories are Missouri University Research Reactor (MURR), SemiSol Analytik GmbH and Wacker Chemie AG for NAA, and Shiva (EAG Labs) for GDMS. Sampling of ESS - bricks for metal determinations: Sampling for NAA Sampling for GDMS Analysis of ESS Method Na K Ca Ti Cr Fe Ni Cu Zn Ga As Mo W NAA 1 (ppbw) 0,3 <0,5 <40 <100 0,05 1,0 1,0 1,0 <0,02 0,2 8 <0,1 <0,05 GDMS 2 (ppbw) <50 <50 <100 <5 <5 <50 <10 <10 <50 <10 <50 <5 <10 1 Average from 3 laboratories. 2 Average from monthly sampling over 6 months production of ESS Specifications for Silicon feedstock Elements Transition and Post-Transition metals Ti, Cr, Fe, Ni, Cu, Zn Mo (ppba) Alkali and Earth Alkali metals Na, K, Ca (ppba) Specification for Virgin Si Feedstock Materials according to SEMI PV Category I Category II Category III Category IV <10 <50 <100 <200 <10 <50 <100 <

17 ESS solar cells are comparable with poly based solar cells Verification in standard screen print solar cell process at ISC Konstanz, October 2011 Cell efficiency distributions for this test 18 Developing people - creating value

18 kwh % % % % % % 99.16% % % % 99.88% % Research plant 1 Grid connected facility in Ishinomaki, Japan (100% and 60% ESS - and Polysilicon ref. modules) % % Most recent relative performance of ESS - vs Polysilicon ref. modules (in March 2012) with differences during the day. Accumulated kwh ESS 100% ESS 60% Poly 100% % % % 95.00% 90.00% 85.00% 80.00% 10 時 11 時 12 時 13 時 14 時 15 時 Hour of the day 100 % ESS/ 100 % Poly 60 % ESS/ 100 % Poly 0 Possible effect of better high-temp. performance of ESS vs polysilicon? 19 Developing people - creating value

19 Efficiency /% Examples of Cz-ingots produced with ESS 50% ESS Possible to charge bricks higher filling degree and faster stacking Ingots produced 33% and 50% ESS mixed with virgin polysilicon Efficiency equal to poly based ingots 20,0 19,5 50% ESS 19,0 18,5 18,0 17,5 Producer 1 17,0 Reference 16,5 Producer 2 16,0 Producer 3 15,5 15,0 0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0 Fraction solidified of total charge, f s 33% ESS 20 Developing people - creating value

20 CHALLENGE FOR NORWEGIAN COMPANIES 21

21 International evaluation..this means that the work force in Norwegian solar industry was almost halved in 2011, compared to earlier years. Companies included in report: REC, Elkem Solar AS, NorSun AS, Metallkraft AS, Innotech Solar AS, CruSiN AS, Evonik Solar, SiC Processing AS 22

22 Little support from Norwegian officials Den skarve fremtiden Av Anders Njål Hansen 19. januar 2012 Ifølge BI-professor Torger Reve bør Norge satse på næringene offshore, maritim industri og fiskeoppdrett (sjømat) fordi disse har potensiale til å bli globale kunnskapsnav. Samtidig sier Torger Reve at bl.a. bioteknologi, farmasøytisk industri, fornybar energi (utenom vannkraft) og reiseliv ikke er fremtidige næringer for Norge fordi vi ikke har gode nok forutsetninger. Dette er empiri, ikke synsing, ifølge professoren. 23 ALVORLIG: At det brukes mindre penger på forskning og utvikling, og at innovasjonen går ned i Norge, er svært alvorlig. Det må legges en systematisk plan som gjør det lønnsomt å investere i kunnskap - ikke satses mindre penger på næringsrettet forskning, mener BIprofessor Torger Reve. Foto:Lise Åserud / SCANPIX - Grunnen eroderes under det norske næringlivet Det er bekymringsfullt at staten bruker mindre nå enn i 2001 på forskning i næringslivet, mener BI-professor Torger Reve.

23 WHO WILL SURVIVE? 24

24 Elkem Solar s vision to contribute to the future of the PV industry Creating future Lower production cost Equivalent product quality Less energy consumption 25 Developing people - creating value

25 Survival of Norwegian SoG-Si production What will it require from us? High quality workforce High productivity Ability to innovate - not copy Optimized production International network and value chain knowhow Source: Arve Ulriksen, Elkem Salten Cost of Energy is approx. 40% of our total Cost Labour Cost 10 % Environmental competence Reduced power consumption Reduced GHG emission Recycling of Si waste in Value Chain No toxic waste Our ability to compete depend on fair power prices and high operational efficiency Power Cons. 40 % Raw material, and other cost 50 % Only people can think and solve problems Only people can understand the needs of customers Only people can support the process 26 5/16/2012

26 Situation of Chinese companies Source:Songcheng Zheng 27

27 Norwegian metallurgical knowhow fundament for unique SoG-Si process development Preben Rash-Olsen in Carnegie investment Bank AS presented 20 Nov. 2011: Prices will continue to drop, several companies will bust, others will consolidate. Winners will be: 1) lowest cost producers, 2) cost-reducing technology providers, 3) consultants & investment bankers With a long term focus on quality, environment and cost the Norwegian producers of compensated SoG-Si should have good qualifications for future expansion. More producers of compensated SoG-Si are, however, needed in order to: 1. meet the dominant market position of SoG-Si from Siemens process 2. establish a competitive PV power price. 28