Strategy Scenario 2050 for Energy Sector. Yokohama, July 2013

Transcription

1 LoCARNet 2nd Annual Meeting Comparison of Reduction Potential of Asian Countries In Achieving Twodegree Target Indonesia Low Carbon Development Strategy Scenario 2050 for Energy Sector Yokohama, July 2013 Dr. Retno Gumilang Dewi, Prof Dr Rizaldi Boer Dr. Ucok Siagian, and Mr. Iwan Hendrawan INSTITUT TEKNOLOGI BANDUNG (ITB) INSTITUT PERTANIAN BOGOR (IPB) OUTLINE 1. Introduction 2. Energy Sector and GHG Emissions 3. Future Visions for Achieving LCDS Toward Development of The Scenario 5. Simulation Results 6. Policy Gap Analysis and Recommendation

2 INTRODUCTION 1 Introduction This presentation discusses LCDS Toward 2020 & 2050 for Energy Sector. LCDS is usually intended to assess long term vision (2050). Particular emphasis in the short term (2020) is to address options for achieving GHG reduction target (National Action Plan) up to 26% below the baseline with domestic budget and further up to 41% with international support. GHG of energy sector increased: Mton C (2000) to 82 Mton C (2005) and 117 Mton C (2010) energy sector is 2 nd contributor of national GHG after AFOLU. LCD Strategy of energy sector is not to achieve world s target on carbon intensity it level; l it is more to explore possibilities of the future energy security and economic development in a low carbon way. In the current energy supply mix (2010), role of new renewable energy (NRE) is still low (6.1%) oil (44.34%), gas %, and coal 24.43%. NRE and power sector are discussed in more detailed as there is a new plan ( ) that intends to revise power development plan (more coal compared to previous plan ( ) will be deployed gradually). Policy gap analysis and recommendation relevant to the achievement of the RAN GRK target are also addressed in this study.

3 GHG Emissions, Ton CO2eq per year Introduction Sector Growth,% per yr Energy 280, , , , , , Industry 42,814 49,810 43,716 46,118 47,971 48, Agriculture 75,420 77,501 77,030 79,829 77,863 80, Waste 157, , , , , , LUCF 649, ,546 1,287, , , ,828* Fluctuated Peat Fire 1 172, , , , , ,000 Fluctuated Total (LUCF) 1,377,753 1,349,449 2,576,952 1,215,460 1,721,179 1,991,371 Fluctuated Total w/o LUCF 556, , , , , , Emissio on (Gt CO2e e) Peat Emission Waste Forestry Agriculture Industry Energy Nett emission will increase from 1.35 to 2.95 GtCO 2 e ( ) Introduction GHG G Emissio ons level Baseline Reduction target (non binding commitment, 26%) Emission level eetarget Sector Emission Reduction (Giga ton CO2e) Total 26% 15% (41 %) Forestry and Peatland Waste Agriculture Industry Energy Total

4 Effect of the revised power development plan to the amount of GHG that have to be reduced from the higher coal in power scenario Higher coal in power scenario vel Baseline Revised reduction target missions le GHG E 902 Reduction target Emission level target (to meet government emission reduction commitment) Type of energy Base year 2005 RUPTL Revised PLN plan* Coal 40.7% 53% 65% Oil 30.6% 4% 3% Natural gas 15.1% 26% 20% hydro 8.4% 10% 5% geothermal 5.2% 7% 7% ENERGY SECTOR AND ENERGY SECTOR AND GHG EMISSIONS 2

5 Current Condition of Energy Sector in Indonesia Energy development is guided by energy supply security concern (based on least cost and resources availability) some fuels are still subsidized Presidential regulation No.5/2006, target share in 2025 energy supply mix: oil < 20% (decreases from 54.78% in 2005) natural gas 30% (increases from 22.2% in 2005) New targett coal > 33% (increased from 16.77% in 2005) geothermal > 5% and other NRE > 5% 25% (2025) develop biofuel to achieve at least 5% 39.5% (2050) develop liquefied coal to achieve 2% (18 MMBOE) in 2020 Shift of newrenewable from 4.5% (2005) to 25% (2025) and 39.5% (2050) is positive to GHG mitigations, however, coal increases from 14% (2003) to 33% (2025) or 30% (2050) will negatively affect to GHG mitigations. There is potential rooms to reduce GHG by deplyoment of RE energy. Indonesia relies on imported technology that are currently old technologies and inefficient there are rooms for energy efficiency improvements and reducing the GHG emission level. Fossil Energy Energy Resource Potential of Indonesia Resources Reserves Annual R/P, (Proven Possible) Production year (*) Oil BBarels 8.2BBarels (**) 357 MBarels 23 Natural Gas TCF 170 TCF 2.7 TSCF 63 Coal Btons 18.8 Btons Mtons 82 Coal Bed Methane 453 TCF (*) assuming no new discovery; (**) including Cepu Block New and Renewable Energy Resources Installed Capacity Hydro MW MW Geothermal MW MW Mini/Micro Hydro 500 MW 861MW 86,1 Biomass MW 445 MW Solar Energy 4,80 kwh/m 2 /day 12,1 MW Wind Energy MW 1,1 MW Uranium (***) 3 GW for 11 years*) (e.q. 24,112 ton) 30 MW ***) Only at Kalan West Kalimantan Source: Data and Information Center, MEMR, 2011

6 GHG emission i level lfrom energy utilization i activity ii (by sector) 400 million ton CO2 e Main sources of GHG Emission from Energy Sector Fugitive Non specified Residential Transportation Industry Energy productions Focus for Mitigation ns BOE millio Biomassa Geothermal Hydro Oil Gas Coal Focus for Mitigation Growth : 3.3% per year; Biomass is used in rural household Household consumption includes Biomass millio ons BOE 1500 ACM & others 1250 Transportation Commercial 1000 Household 750 Industry

7 Million barrel Oil Fuels Consumption AMC Commerce Industry Transport Household Notes: Mostly used in transport Household demand will decrease significantly, substituted by LPG Million barrels Transportation fuels Avtur Diesel Gasoline 80 Note: Other transport fuels (gas, electricity it and other liquid id fuels) are much smaller Potential to be replaced with biofuel or gas FUTURE VISIONS FOR ACHIEVING LCDS TOWARD

8 Socio Economic Parameter Base Year Target Year Target Year Population, Million Person per household GDP (at constant price 2000), trillion IDR 1,787 4,572 30,244 GDP per capita, million IDR Gross output, trillion IDR 3,533 10,657 70,490.1 Primary ,157 Secondary 1,953 4,506 29,807 Tertiary (commercial) 1,251 5,522 36,525 Passenger Trip Generation (Ptg), trips Passenger transport demand, billion psg km 1,763 2,145 2,463 Freight transport transport demand, billion ton km 274 1,062 7,022 Base year: 2005 and Short Term Projection 2020 and Long Term Projection 2050 Thesociety isdepicted ascalmer, slower, and natureoriented. Thisscenarioisregardedscenario regarded as moderate development path, in which: Population growth 1.03%/year ( ); and 0.89%/year ( ). GDP growth 6% ( ), 6,5% ( ), 7% ( ). BaU (moderate): current development trend and society orientation will continue until 2050, people lifestyles and activities do not have implication to the generation of CO 2 emissions Mitigation (moderate): same economic development with BAU but society is more efficient in energy utilizations (use technology with higher energy efficiency) compared to the BAU. DEVELOPMENT OF THE SCENARIO 4 SHORT TERM (2020) AND LONG TERM(2050)

9 Short Term Target Base Year 2005 Revised* Short Term Target: Higher coal scenario Base Year 2005 BaU 2020 Mitigation Mitigation * BaU 2020 Mitigation i i Mitigation Mitigation 1 R 2020 Mitigation 2 R 2020 *Revision related to the new plan, in which higher coal will be deployed in the power supply mix Influences the Long Term Projection Long Term Target Base Year 2005 * BaU 2050 Mitigation Mitigation Mitigation 1 R 2050 Mitigation 2 R 2050 LOW CARBON MEASURES

10 MITIGATION OPTIONS Short Term (2020): Mitigation actions to be included in the study are those options that are likely readily applicable and deployable in the near future such as energy efficiency measures. M1 M2 M1 R M2 R improve efficiency devices in Industri, Residensial, Comersial, and Transport Sector M1 improve efficiency coal Plant and transmission&distribution losses in Power Sector M1 install Solar Cell in Residential Sector M1 increase train and bus sharing in Transport Sector For long term (2050): Mitigation options are generally relatively wide (efficiency measures to deployment of advanced technology such electric cars fueled using renewable sources,etc.) M1 improve efficiency devices in Industri, Residential, Commercial, and Transport Sector M2 M1 improve efficiency coal Plant and transmission & distribution losses in Power Sector M1R M1 install Solar Cell in Residensial Sector M2R M1 increase train and bus sharing in Transport Sector END USER USERENERGYENERGY EFFICIENCY MEASURES Sector Penetration share of BAT Efficiency improvement of BAT Remarks compared to existing device Industry 30% 10 30% In the model this Commercial 15% 20 30% efficiency improvement varies, depend on the Residential 10% 10 20% type of device (not sectoral aggregate) Note: Penetration share of BAT in industry sector 30% means that in 2020 the technology (devices) used in the industry activities will comprise 30% BAT and 70% existing technology (less efficient).

11 SIMULATION RESULTS 5 Trillion IDR Commercial Cement Iron and Stel Other Industries Construction Chemicals Textile, Wood, Paper Food and Beverage Gross output of production sector

12 05=1 lue of 20 Va Base Population GDP Final Energy GHG Emissions Demand Snapshots of population, GDP, energy demandandghg ton CO2 7,000 6,000 Power Generation Tertiary Industries Million 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Cement Iron and Stel Other Industries Construction Chemicals 1, BaU 2050BaU Textile, Wood, and Paper Food and Beverage GHG emissions by sector

13 SCENARIO 2020 VS 2050 M illion toe 1,600 1,400 1,200 Commercial Cement Iron and Steel Other Industries ilion toe Mi 2,500 2,000 1,000 Construction Chemicals 1,500 Biomass Geothermal Textile, Wood, and Paper Food and Beverage Mining and Quarying Agriculture Households Freight transport 1, HydroPower Natural Gas Oil Coal BaU 2050BaU Passenger transport BaU 2050BaU Final energy demand projection Primary energy supply mix SCENARIO 2020 VS 2050 FOR POWER GENERATION Million toe Biomass illion ton CO O2e 2,500 2,000 Geothermal 1,500 HydroPower Natural Gas Oil Coal M 1, Natural Gas Oil Coal BaU 2050BaU BaU 2050BaU Power generation by fuel type GHG emissions of power sector

14 SCENARIO 2020 Table 1. Simulation results of the effect of higher coal power to the SNC scenarios Parameter (SNC projection) Effect of higher coal in 2020 Base Year BaU M1 M2 BaU MR1 MR2 GDP (trillion IDR) 1,787 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 4,572 Population (million) Energy demand (million toe) Energy demand per capita (toe) Energy intensity (toe/million IDR) Energy Elasticity i CO 2 emission (million tonco 2 )* Carbon Intensity Ton CO 2 percapita Ton CO 2 per million IDR *It does not include CO 2 emission from fugitives Parameter Base Year BaU M1 M2 BaU M1 M2 GDP (trillion IDR) 1,787 4, , , ,549 29,549 29,549 Population (million) Energy demand per capita (toe) Energy intensity (toe/million IDR) GDP Growth rate 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% Energy Demand Growth rate 5.0% 4.6% 4.6% Energy Elasticity Ton CO 2 per capita Ton CO 2 per million IDR

15 FINAL ENERGY DEMAND 2020 Mi illiontoe Commercial Cement Iron and Steel Other Industries illion toe Mi Construction Chemicals Textile, Wood, and Paper Food and Beverage 100 Mining and Quarying Agriculture 50 Households 200 Electricity Biomass 150 Natural Gas Oil 100 Coal 50 Freight transport BaU 2020M1 2020M2 Passenger transport BaU 2020M1 2020M2 by Sector by Fuel Type PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY BY TYPE OF ENERGY Millio on toe Biomass Geothermal 250 HydroPower 200 Natural Gas Oil Coal BaU 2020M1 2020M2

16 CO2 EMISSION 2020 million tonco 2 1, Power Generation 1, Tertiary Industries 900 Cement Iron and Stel Other Industries 600 Construction 600 tonco 2 Millilion t natural gas oil coal Chemicals Textile, Wood, and Paper Food and Beverage Mining and Quarying Agriculture BaU 2020M1 2020M2 Households Freight transport Passenger transport BaU 2020M1 2020M2 CO 2 Emissions by Sector CO 2 Emissions by Fuel Type REVISED POWER GENERATION PLAN Millio on ton CO O2 e natural gas 200 oil 150 coal BaU 2020BaU Higher Coal CO 2 Emissions Power Sector

17 MITIGATION SCENARIOS FOR HIGHER COAL POWER Efficiency measures (enduser and supply sides transport mode shift ENDUSER ENERGY EFFICIENCY MEASURES, APPLIED IN M1 AND M2 Sector Penetration share of BAT Efficiency improvement of BAT Remarks compared to existing device Industry 30% 10 30% In the model this Commercial 15% 20 30% efficiency improvement varies, depend on the Residential 10% 10 20% type of device (not sectoral aggregate) Note: Penetration share of BAT in industry sector 30% means that in 2020 the technology (devices) used in the industry activities will comprise 30% BAT and 70% existing technology (less efficient).

18 CHANGE OF TRANSPORT MODE 100% Mod dal share 80% Airplan 60% 40% 20% 19% 10% Bicycle Walk Ship 20% Bus 20% Train 15% 15% 0% 2% 2% 6% Higher Coal 2020M2(R) Motorcycle Small Vehicle Large Vehicle GHG EMISSIONS 2020, HIGHER COAL AND MITIGATIONS nco2 e Million to 1, Power Generation Tertiary Industries Cement Iron and Stel Other Industries Construction Chemicals 400 Textile, Wood, and Paper BaU 2020BaU Higher Coal 2020 M1(R) 2020 M2(R) Food and Beverage Mining and Quarying Agriculture Households Freight httransportt Passenger transport

19 GAPANALYSIS ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATION 6 POSSIBILITY THE USE OF BIOMASS BASED ENERGY BIOMASS RESOURCES POTENTIAL IN ASEAN COUNTRIES Sources: Saku Rantanen (Pöyry), 2009 Large Potential is still unutilized!. Source: Sou ce Saku Rantanen (Pöyry), 2009

20 FUELS DEM AND Fossil Fuels Consumption Gross Domestic Product Domestic Biofuels supply Fossils Fuels Import Fuel Demand Potential Energy Efficiencyi Biofuels Export FOSSIL FUELS SUPPLY Fossil Fuels Production Pricing Policy Resource Depletion Crude Oil Exploration FUELS PRICES Domestic Fuels Price Domestic Biofuels Price Global Environmental Pressure Global Energy Price Global Biofuel Prices Employment Land Conversion Policy Land availability for biofuel Biofuels Production BIOFUELS INDUSTRY Biofuel Plantation Forest Conservation Deforestation Efforts FORESTRY Ec onomic Feasibility of Biofuels Food crops land AGRICULTURE Food crops extensific ation Agric ultural Product Price Food Supply Food Security THE POSIBILITY TO USE BIOMAS BASED ENERGY POTENTIAL (PARTICULARLY BIFUELS) IN TRANSPORTATION, INDUSTRY AND POWER NEEDS TO INTEGRATE ENERGY MODEL AND AFOLU MODEL

21 GAP ANALYSIS OF CURRENT POLICY The targett of National Action Plan For Reducing GHG Emissions i could be achieved through Energy Efficiency (EE) measures in supply/demand side. Demandside EEcould be implemented whenfollowing conditions prevail: Efficient appliances are available and relatively easy to access Producers have technical & financial capability to produce eff. appliances Producers have the needed drive to produce efficient appliances (there is a market demand of their product) Energy users have the drive to safe energy. Energy consumers have financiali capacity to acquire efficient i appliances (usually expensive) Supply side EE could be implemented when following conditions prevail: There is an economic drive or stimulant for power generators to improve efficiency. Under current subsidy system such drive may not exist Strict regulation that prevent construction of less efficient power plant. The GOI should set minimum thermal efficiency for new power plants RECOMENDATION In demand side, the following policy/regulations are recommended: To ensure the use of efficient energy appliances, introduce incentive packages for energy consumer such as help for financing of expensive but efficient appliances. Introduce building codes that promote energy efficiency: make the use of efficient appliances & energy efficient design as requirement for construction approval. Introduce EE as a major criteria in rating of industrial environmental compliance Strengthenth capacityof government officials i in EE arena such as inevaluating and inspecting the efficiency of energy systems and energy audit document reported by industry/building sector; the government officials that need to be strengthen is not limited to energy ministry but also for officers at other ministry that deals with energy related issues such as ministry of environment, ministry of public works, ministry of industry, ministry of finance etc. Introduce energy pricing policy that promotes energy efficiency: gradual removal electricity and oil subsidies.

22 In supply side, the following policy/regulations are recommended: Introduce regulations for power sector that will increase the efficiency i of power plant by making a mandatory to use best available technology in new coal power plant construction; new coal power plants options include circulated coal fluidized bed combustion (CFBC), sub or super critical coal power plants; stoker type coal power system may need to be phased out; this regulation lti should apply to PLN and IPP as well as to industry that generate their own electricity Introduce regulations that would force the electricity company continuously to reduce technical losses at their transmission and distribution systems e.g. by using higher voltage transmissions lines and improvement of transformer at the power substations. Thank You gelangdewi@yahoo.com g gelang@che.itb.ac.id