Low Carbon Asia Research Network (LoCARNet) 6 th Annual Meeting. 1-3 November 2017, Bangkok, Thailand. Retno Gumilang Dewi

Transcription

1 Integration of Local Actions into National Development Towards Achieving SDGs in Asia and the Role of Science and Technology: Development and Application of Models and Monitoring Technologies to Evaluate Transition to the SDGs Contribution of DKI Jakarta Mitigation Action Plan to the National GHG Emission Reduction Target of Indonesia NDC Low Carbon Asia Research Network (LoCARNet) 6 th Annual Meeting 1-3 November 2017, Bangkok, Thailand Retno Gumilang Dewi Center for Research on Energy NSTITUT TEKNOLOGI BANDUNG

2 OUTLINE Introduction Overview of Energy Sector GHG Emission Model Using ExSS-GAMs Mitigation Options in Transport Sector and The Associated GHG Emissions Reduction Lesson Learn

3 INTRODUCTION GHG Emission Reduction Target of Indonesia s NDC and The Potential Area for Contribution of DKI Jakarta Mitigation Action 1

4 Indonesia First NDC and Long Term Mitigation Actions GHG emissions per capita International (2005), t C/cap Japan, UK, Germany 2.5 US 5.5; Canada 4.2 India 0.3; China 0,6 World (average) Developing Countries Indonesia (2014) 0.48 ton C/capita Leapfrog- Development Indonesia BAU (2050):??? ton C/capita World Target (2050): 0.44 ton C/capita To keep increasing of Global Temperature not more than 2 o Time GHG emission, Gt/year RAN 26% & 41% 2010 Indonesia NDC 29% & up to 41% Peak? Needs for negative emissions technology Indonesia NDC (Nationally Determine Contribution) Base Year, GHG Emission 2030 Sector 2010 (Mton CO 2 -e) % reduction of BaU (MTon CO2-e) BaU CM1 CM2 CM1 CM2 Energy* ,669 1,355 1,271 11% 14% Waste % 1% IPPU % 0.11% Agriculture % 0.13% Forestry** % 23% Total 1,334 2,869 2,034 1,787 29% 38% *Including fugitive; **Including peat fire; CM1 = unconditional, CM2 = conditional Source: Indonesia first NDC 2016; Rencana Aksi Nasional Penurunan Emisi Gas Rumah Kaca Remarks BaU CM1 CM2 Development Path not deliberated the mitigation policies Mitigation scenario & considers sectoral development target (Unconditionally) Ambitious mitigation scenario + International support available (conditionally) 4

5 NDC INDONESIA: REDUCTION TARGET ENERGY SECTOR 2030 RE in Power Generation EBT Listrik Energy Eff. in Konservasi Final Demand energi Clean Clean Coal Power Tech. Plant Biofuel in transport EBT Non Listrik Kerosene to LPG Mitan to LPG, Jargas, SPBG Un-conditional Commitment with Total 314 Million Ton CO2e, 2030), which in 29% below the baseline Reclamation after mining* * Reklamasi pasca tambang *) Land base sector GHG Emission Reduksi GHG, reduction, Juta ton Million CO2eq Ton CO2e Source: Indonesia First NDC,

6 Mitigation Action Plan (Indonesia 1 st NDC, 2016) Energy 1. Energy efficiency in final demand 2. Clean coal technology in power 3. Renewable energy in power 4. Biofuel in transportation sector 5. Additional gas distribution lines 6. Additional CNG fuel station 7. Conversion Kerosene to LPG IPPU 1. Reduction of Clinker/Cement ratio 2. Feedstock utilization and CO2 recovery in primary reformer in petrochemical industry 3. Other actions in steel industry and aluminum smelter Waste 1. LFG recovery 2. Composting and 3R 3. RDF Utilization 4. Management of Domestic WWT 5. Management of Industrial WWT Agriculture 1. The use of low-emission crops 2. Implementation of water efficient concept in water management 3. Manure management for biogas 4. Feed supplement for cattle LULUCF 1. Reduction unplanned deforestation 2. Rehabilitation of land & forest in watershed 3. Development of community forest & village forest 4. Establishment of timber plantation and private forest 5. Restoration of production forest ecosystem 6. Development of partnership forest 7. Fire management & combatting illegal logging 8. Establishment Forest Management Unit 9. Conversion of forested peatland, issued moratorium policies for peatland 10.Development Fire early warning system 11.Strengthening community based fire fighting system 12.Improving of peatland management Key Policies and Plans 1. Indonesian NDC 2. National Action Plan for GHG Emission Mitigation 3. National Energy Policy (KEN) 4. National Electric Power Expansion Plan (RUPTL-PLN) 5. National Energy Conservation and Efficiency (RIKEN and Various Government Regulations) 6. Mandatory for Biofuel utilization in various sectors 7. National Forestry Plan (RKTN) 8. Timber Legality Assurance System (TLAS) 9. Moratorium Issuance of new conversion permits for primary forest & peat-lands 10. Establishing a new agency called the National Agency for Peatland Restoration (Badan Restorasi Gambut), 11. Forest Law Enforcement National Strategy Source: Indonesia first NDC; various other source 6

7 Climate Change Mitigation Action Plan of DKI Jakarta GHG Emissions level Reduction target non binding commitment (30%) in 2030 Emission level target In-line with Low Carbon Development Paths In response to climate change issues, the Governor of DKI Jakarta in 2010 anounce non binding commitment to reduce GHG emissions 30% below the baseline by 2030, which was estimated about 35,24 million ton CO 2 e contribute to NDC,. In energy sector, the mitigation are related to EE in final demand (building, transport, and industry sectors), the use of less emission energy (RE and natural gas) To achieve the target, the Governor developed mitigation actions plan that was published as Provincial GHG Mitigation Action Plan. As one of the main sources of GHG emissions, transportation is an important sector in the RAD GRK, particularly GHG emissions from oil fuels combustion. 7

8 Potential Area for Contribution of DKI Jakarta to The National Mitigation Actions Under NDC Energy Sector 1. Energy efficiency in final demand Industry, Transport, Building 2. Clean coal technology in power 3. Renewable energy in power 4. Biofuel in transportation sector Transport 5. Additional gas distribution lines Transport 6. Additional CNG fuel station Transport 7. Conversion Kerosene to LPG GHG Emission Reduction Potential in Transportation Sector

9 Transport Infrastructure in DKI Jakarta to Achieve Low Carbon City in 2030 The paper presents result of a modeling study concerning development paths of transport infrastructure in DKI Jakarta in Transportation is one of improtant issues during dicussion of Low Carbon Development for a City, particularly city such as DKI Jakarta, one of megacities in the world. DKI Jakarta contributes 10% of national GHG emissions, of which 89% is from energy sector. The main consumers of energy in DKI Jakarta are transportation (34%) and industries (34%). Therefore, energy used in transportation is one of important sub-sectors for GHG emission reduction target.

10 OVERVIEW OF DKI JAKARTA ENERGY SECTOR The Associated GHG Emission form Energy Sector 2

11 Overview of Jakarta Characteristics The Jakarta city is caracterized by: - high economic activity. - very dense city s population (> 10 million population living in 662 km 2 of land area), - limmited public transport infrastructure and having high motorized vehicle density (mostly cars and motorcycles), and National population million (2014)

12 DKI Jakarta is a coastal city with several rivers flowed accross the city. Combined with the low topography (40% of land area is below sea level) makes Jakarta prone to flooding from swollen rivers in wet season and high sea tides. Lack of water level control infrastructure, deforestation in surrounding area of DKI Jakarta, and complex socio-economic problems indirectly contribute to triggering a flood event. This situation makes the city vurnerable to the impact of climate change, especially the rise of sea level and rainfall intensity.

13 Energy Use and Sources of GHG Emissions in DKI Jakarta 13

14 Energy Use and Sources of GHG Emissions in DKI Jakarta 1,000 TJ Energy Consumption in Power Energy Consumption in Manufacture HSD/IDO - MFO - Natural Gas 1,000 TJ ,000 TJ indirect Kerosene - Diesel Oil - Diesel Oil - Fuel Oil - LPG - Gas 14

15 Energy Use and Sources of GHG Emissions in DKI Jakarta TJ Commercial Building TJ indirect Diesel Oil - Gas - Electricity (indirect) TJ Residential Building TJ indirect LPG - Gas - Electricity (indirect) - 15

16 Energy Use and Sources of GHG Emissions in DKI Jakarta 16

17 GHG Emission Level of DKI Jakarta Fossil Fuel Combustion Transportation The use of electricity 17

18 GHG EMISSION MODEL USING EXSS-GAMS The Projection of GHG Emissions in Energy Sector 3

19 ENERGY AND GHG EMISSION MODEL FOR DKI JAKARTA Non-linear programming (GAMs based Extended Snap Shot) is used as a tool for developing energy development paths and estimating associated GHGs. Two projection scenarios are developed: BaU envisions development paths of energy sector and the associated GHG emission without considering mitigation efforts Mitigation scenario envisions development paths to achieve low carbon city. Base year for projection scenarios is 2005 and target year is Socio-economic variable (input parameters to ExSS Modeling)

20 Private consumption Government expenditure Fixed capital formation Contents Export Input coefficient matrix Import ratio Floor area per output Energy service demand per driving force IO analysis Output of commercial industry Commercial building floor area Output by industry Output of manufacturin g industry Freight transport demand Number of household Passenger transport demand Household size Population Trip per person Trip distance Modal share Freight generation per output Transport distance Modal share Fuel share Energy efficiency Dispersed power generation (DPG) Energy efficiency (DPG) Own use (DPG) CO 2 emission factor (exc. electricity) Exogenous variables Parameters Endogenous variables Dispersed power generation (DPG) Energy demand(dpg ) CO 2 emission factor (electricity) Electricity demand Central power generation (CPG) Energy demand(cp G) Final energy demand Primary AIM Training COWorkshop 2 emissions NIES, energy Ibaraki, Japan, (by 31 Aug- energy 11 end-use Sep, 2009 demand sector) Energy demand (exc. electricity) Fuel share (CPG) Energy efficiency (CPG) Own use (CPG) Transmission loss (CPG) 1. Driving Force Settings 2. Final Energy Demand 3. Primary Energy Demand 4. CO2 emissions 20

21 Socio Economic Condition and Projection Economically, the city significantly contributes to national economy. With the city s GDP level at around 396 trillion rupiah (at constant price 2000) in 2010, DKI Jakarta acounts for 17% of national GDP. During , the city s GDP grew around 6.5% per annum, in which contribution of tertiary (commercial) industry is 73% and secondary (manufacturing) industry is 15%. The high growth of these two GDP outputs will also affect to transportation condition of the city. Projection of population (by age group composition) and GDP (Gross Output)

22 ENERGY AND GHG EMISSION PROJECTION OF DKI JAKARTA Value at base year 2005 = BaU CM BaU CM Population GDP Energy Demand CO2 Emission The city s population growth, economic charactristics, transportation condition has lead to the high GHG emission level: 3.84 ton CO 2 e per capita (2005), of which energy used accounted for 89% of total GHG emission and transportation contribution was 20%. As comparison, the national level is 3.01 ton CO 2 e per capita.

23 MITIGATION OPTIONS IN TRANSPORT SECTOR AND THE ASSOCIATED GHG EMISSIONS REDUCTION Mitigation Options in Transportation 4

24 Drivers of GHG Emissions can be identified from IPAT identity : Impact = Population Affluence Technology CO 2 Emissions = Population (GDP/Population) (Energy/GDP) (CO 2 /Energy) ( Kaya multiplicative identity ) GDP E C Net C = P S P GDP E Energy Efficient Clean Energy/ Technology Climate Change Mitigation Acions are to reduce Nett GHG Emisions

25 LOW CARBON DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES LCS Actions Clean Energy (Residential and Commercial) Low Carbon Style (Residential and Commercial) Low Carbon Electricity Renewable energy or Less CO2 Emission Energy Less CO2 Emission Energy Technology Society Behavior in Residential /Commercial Efficient energy technology appliances Renewable energy & Less CO2 Emission Energy Efficient energy technology of power generation Less CO2 Emission Energy Technology (Coal IGCC + CCS) Increasing Efficiency of T & D Renewable energy or Less CO2 Emission Energy Low carbon energy system in industry Efficient energy technology appliances Efficient energy process and processing technology Renewable energy or Less CO2 Emission Energy Sustainable transport modal shift (public/mass rapid transport utilization) Energy Efficiency Improvement Reduce trip generation and distance (improve Infrastructure, telecommunication, new urban design, traffic management

26 GHG Reduction Potential in Energy Sector under RAD GRK in 2030 Energy efficient devices in industry Energy efficient devices in residential Energy conservation in non-government build. Energy conservation in government build. Biofuel Train Fuel economy CNG MRT (mass rapid transport) Ecodriving TOD (Transit Oriented Development) ERP (Electronic Road Pricing) ITS (Intelligent Transport System) Park management Freight transport schedulling Regular vehicle emission test Renewal of public transport vehicle Bicycle lane Monorail Feeders busway Busway , ,293 4,708 5,671 6, Kilo Ton CO2

27 THE PROJECTION OF ENERGY SECTOR Final energy demand projection of the city (by energy type and sector) Energy supply mix projection and corresponding sectoral GHG emission

28 PROJECTION OF GHG EMISSION OF ENERGY SECTOR IN DKI JAKARTA UNDER BAU SCENARIO 2005 BaU 2030

29 GHG EMISSION PROJECTION OF ENERGY SECTOR UNDER BAU AND MITIGATION SCENARIO million ton CO BaU 2030 CM 26.3 million ton CO 2 (19% reduction) 30% Commercial Industrial Residential Freight Transport Passenger Transport

30 Energy Technology Options for Sustainable Transport 1. Deployment of energy efficient devices 2. Transport fuel change from oil fuels to low carbon emitting fuels (biofuel/gas), 3. Mode change (private to public): MRT/mono rail, train/double track, bus-way 4. Increase of non motorized transport (bike/ walk): pedestrian improvement 5. Efficiency improvement in cars through flue gas monitoring, 6. Traffic management (parking management, freight transport scheduling, etc.) 7. Promotion of eco-driving.

31 Share of transportation mode distribution of passenger transport Transportation mode distributions of passenger and freight transports

32 LESSON LEARN The Projection of GHG Emissions from Energy Sector at City Level (DKI Jakarta) 5

33 LESSONS LEARN Modeling using ExSS GAMS has been implemented to explore development path of DKI Jakarta that will lead to development with low carbon emission in energy sector in This development is expected will bring DKI Jakarta become Low Carbon City in the future. As of now, there is no specific definition in terms of number of Low Carbon City. GDP growth used in this modeling results in increase of GDP in 2030 by 5 times compared to There is also shift in sectoral GDP product, where the share of commercial (tertiary industry) will increase from 66% to 71%. This is inline with the expectation that capital city like DKI Jakarta will rely more on commercial sector as compared to manufacturing industry and other sector. Energy intensity in commercial sector as not as high as in manufacturing industry sector. And therefore such shift will lead to less energy demand growth rate. The type of energy used in this sector is mainly electricity. Mitigation actions related electricity utilization can be applied in end-use side since power generator side is beyond of the authority of DKI Jakarta.

34 Mitigation actions for DKI Jakarta has been explore using Provincial RAD GRK of DKI Jakarta (2012) as reference. The selected mitigation actions results in 26 million ton CO 2 reduction in 2030 compared to emission in BaU. This reduction is equivalent to 19% of BaU level in As comparison the RAD target is 30%. Transport reduces GHG emission significantly (7 Mton CO 2 from passenger transport and 2 Mton CO 2 from freight transport), followed by industrial (7 Mton CO 2 ), commercial (6 Mton CO 2 ), and residential (5 Mton CO 2 ). Mitigation in transport includes improvement of transport infrastructure, transport management, regular emission test (enforce the use more efficient vehicle), deployment of energy efficient vehicles (BAT), transport mode shift from individual vehicle to mass public transport (MRT, bus-way, bus-feeder, train, mono-rail, and promoting eco-driving. The utilization of ExSS model may be disseminated to evaluate mitigation actions and to explore development paths toward low carbon city for other cities with sufficient data (comprehensive socio economic data, IO table/sam energy, and detail energy data) like DKI Jakarta.

35 Acknowledgment NIES Institut Teknologi Bandung (ITB) - Indonesia Institut Pertanian Bogor (IPB) - Indonesia Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) Japan Kyoto University Japan Mizuho Information & Research Institute Japan National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) Japan UN University Institute of Advance Studies Japan

36 Thank You