Technology Options for Achieving Low Carbon Energy in Indonesia

Transcription

1 Kickoff Meeting ASIA PACIFIC REGIONAL INITIATIVE ON ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND ECOSYSTEMS (3E) NEXUS FOR SUSTAINABEL DEVELOPMENT Technology Options for Achieving Low Carbon Energy in Indonesia Maldives, February 214 Dr. Retno Gumilang Dewi Center for Research on Energy Policy Department of Chemical Engineering INSTITUT TEKNOLOGI BANDUNG

2 Outline 1. Introduction 2. Energy Sector and GHG Emissions and It s Projection 3. Power Supply Mix and Transportation Scenarios 4. GHG Emission Level and Mitigation Actions

3 1. INTRODUCTION LCD is long term vision () of economic development in a low- carbon way à challenge for achieving LCD is now in a global mainstream; ParCcular emphasis in short- term (22) is to address opcons for achieving GHG reduccon target (NaConal AcCon Plan) up to 26% below the baseline with domescc budget and further up to 41% with internaconal support. Supported by PerPres No. 61/211 (NaConal AcCon Plan for MiCgaCon AcCon) and PerPres 71/211 (GHG Inventory), regulacon for MRV is under preparacon Energy sector is 2 nd contributor of naconal GHG emission, parccularly CO 2 emission aver AFOLU (agriculture, forestry, and land use). CO 2 energy sector increased: 369,8 ton (25) to 392,82 ton (21) LCD is relacvely new in Indonesia; current government plans on energy are not developed to achieve LCD, but scll inline with/supporcve to LCD. Current energy supply mix: share of renewable less carbon emi^ng energy is scll low, RE (6.1%), oil (44.34%), gas 43.3 %, coal 24.43%. LCD strategy is not to achieve world s target on carbon intensity level; it is more to explore possibilices of the future development in a low- carbon way.

4 GHG Emissions, Ton CO2-eq per year Emission (Gt CO2e) Peat Emission Waste Forestry Agriculture Industry Energy Sector Growth, %/yr Energy 28,938 36, , ,95 372, ,8 5.7 Industry 42,814 49,81 43,716 46,118 47,971 48, Agriculture 75,42 77,51 77,3 79,829 77,863 8, Waste 157,328 16, ,8 164,74 165, , LUCF 649,254 56,546 1,287, , , ,828* Fluctuated Peat Fire 1 172, 194, 678, 246, 44, 451, Fluctuated Total (+LUCF) 1,377,753 1,349,449 2,576,952 1,215,46 1,721,179 1,991,371 Fluctuated Total w/o LUCF 556, ,93 611, , , ,

5 CO2 EMISSIONS INTENSITY OF ENERGY SECTOR GHG emissions per capita International (25), Ton C/capita - Japan, UK, Germany US 5.5; Canada India.3; China,6 - World (average) Developed Countries Developing Countries Leapfrog- development Per Capita Emission (tc) World Target ():,5 ton C/capita Indonesia BAU (): 3.62 ton C/capita (13.28 ton CO2/capita) GHG per capita in CM1.89 ton C (6.91 ton CO2) CM2.63 ton C (2.31 ton CO2) Indonesia (25).46 ton C/capita Time Emission/capita from energy [Source: AIM training WS Asian LCDS Study, 21] Energy All (Exc. LUCF) All (Inc. LUCF) High Energy Locked- in Type Development With High Damage on Economy and Natural System

6 HDI ( ~ LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH + ADULT LITERACY & SCHOOL ENROLMENT + GNP PER CAPITA AT PPP) VERSUS PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND PER CAPITA (22) IN TONNES OF OIL EQUIVALENT (TOE) PA [1 TOE PA = 1.33 KWS] Base 25.5 toe CM toe 2.42 toe 3 toe = 22 boe CM toe BAU Note: shoulder in HDI vs energy-use curve at ~ 3 toe pa [= 4. kws] per capita 3 toe = 22 boe

7 GHG Emissions level Baseline Emission level target ReducCon target non binding commitment (26% or 41%) Sector Emission Reduction (Giga ton CO2e) Total (41 %) 26% 15% Forestry and Peatland Waste Agriculture Industry Energy Total

8 GHG Emissions level Baseline 26% 15% Unilateral: National/ Sub-national Action Plan RAN/RAD (Unilateral NAMAs) Supported NAMAs TA, Grand Inv, JCM Credited NAMAs (CDM, Voluntary, Domestic) Unilateral: domescc budget (naconal/sub- naconal budget, private business, community, CSR, GoI just released scmulus and incencve for industry who wants to reduce GHG emission DomesCc C- credit: Carbon Nusantara Several intangible program: green industry, green building, proper, internaconal GIR, ISO, etc.

9 2. ENERGY SECTOR AND GHG EMISSION NATIONAL CIRCUMTANCE Electricity Grid Connected: northern and southern part of Sumatera Island, Jawa- Madura Bali (JAMALI), East Kalimantan, Sulawesi

10 Energy Resource Potential of Indonesia Fossil Energy Resources Reserves Annual R/P, (Proven + Possible) Production year (*) Oil 56.6 BBarels 8.2BBarels (**) 357 MBarels 23 Natural Gas TCF 17 TCF 2.7 TSCF 63 Coal 14.8 Btons 18.8 Btons Mtons 82 Coal Bed Methane 453 TCF (*) assuming no new discovery; (**) including Cepu Block New and Renewable Energy Resources Installed Capacity Hydro MW 4.2 MW Geothermal MW 1.52 MW Mini/Micro Hydro 5 MW 86,1 MW Biomass MW 445 MW Solar Energy 4,8 kwh/m 2 /day 12,1 MW Wind Energy 9.29 MW 1,1 MW Uranium (***) 3 GW for 11 years*) (e.q. 24,112 ton) 3 MW ***) Only at Kalan West Kalimantan Source: Data and Information Center, MEMR, 212

11 Current Condition of Energy Sector in Indonesia Final Energy Consumption milion toe Biomass*(residential) Electricity LPG Fuel Gas Coal million toe ACM & others Transportation Commercial Household Industry million ton CO2- e FugiCve Non- specified ResidenCal TransportaCon Industry Energy produccons *Residential include biomass

12 Natural! Gas,! 21.3%! Geother mal,! 1.2%! Hydro,! 3.%! Oil,! 55.1%! Geotherma 5%! Biofuel,!5%! Biomass*,! Nuclear,! Hydro,Solar Wind,!5%! Coal! LiquefacMon,!2%! Oil,!2%! Increase New-Renewable Energy to 34%! Coal,! 19.4%! Natural!Gas,! 3%! Coal,!33%! *excluding!residenmal!biomass!!! 25! Target!225!!PerPres!5/26! KEN (National Energy Policy) New-RE increased from 4.5% (25) to 25% (225) is positive to GHG mitigations; coal increases from 19.4% (2) to 33% (225) will negatively affect to mitigations; Supportive plan: increasing new-renewable up to 34% Potential reduction: deplyoment of renewable and less carbon emitting energy Indonesia relies on imported technology in all sectors, in which energy technologies are still inefficient, there are rooms for improvements.

13 GHG EMISSION PROJECTION Value at 25 = BaU BaU BaU BaU low BaU high BaU BaU low BaU high BaU BaU low BaU high Population GDP Energy Demand CO2 Emission Baseline scenario: ProjecCon of GHG emission under expected socio- economic development in Indonesia without addiconal countermeasures to reduce GHG from energy. Counter Measure (CM) scenario: IntroducCon of low- carbon measures which are already available. AssumpCons are based on the official target (RAN- GRK, reduce 38 MtCO 2 in energy sector).

14 GROSS OUTPUT OF PRODUCTION SECTOR Trillion Rupiah 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, Rp./US$ = 1, 4,371 61,494 TerCary Industries Cement Iron & Steel Other Industry ConstrucCon Chemical Industry TexCle Food & Beverage Mining & Quarryng Agriculture 1, 3,532 8, BaU BaU low BaU high 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 35% 41% BaU Tertiary Industries Cement Iron & Steel Other Industry Construction Chemical Industry Textile, Pulp paper Food & Beverage Mining & Quarryng Agriculture

15 Macro&economy+and+ Industry+Module Labor+Module Population+and+Household+ Number+Module Time&use+and+ Consumption+Module Transport+ Module Commercial+ Building+Module Energy+Demand+&+GHG+ Emissions+Module GHG+emissions Labor+ demand Wage Number+of+ workers Average+ working+time Population Private+ consumption Number+of+ household Output Passenger+and+freight+ transport+demand Floor+area+of+ commercial+buildings Energy+demand Income Export Import+ratio Commuting+OD Labor+participation+ratio Demographic+composition Average+number+of+family+ occupants Breakdown+of+ consumption Floor+area+per+ output Population distribution Trip+per+parson Transport+distance Modal+share Energy+service+demand+generation+unit Energy+efficiency Fuel+share Emission+factor Government+expenditure Labor+productivity Exogenous+variables+ and+parameters Main+endogenous+ variables Module Input Flow+of+endogenous+variables

16 3. POWER SUPPLY MIX AND TRANSPORTATION SCENARIOS ENERGY SUPPLY MIX IN POWER GENERATION Coal Oil Gas Hydropower Biomassa Geothermal Solar & Wind 22 CM(41%) 52% 4% 26% 11%.4% 7%.1% 22 CM(26%) 52% 4% 26% 11%.3% 7%.1% 22 BaU 53% 4% 26%.3% 1% 7% 25 41% 31% 15%.2% 8% 5% % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 1%

17 Higher coal in power scenario GHG Emissions level Baseline 92 Revised reduction target Reduction target Emission level target (to meet government emission reduction commitment) Type%of%energy% Base%year%25% RUPTL%296218% Revised%PLN%plan*% Coal% 4.7%% 53%% 65%% Oil% 3.6%% 4%% 3%% Natural%gas% 15.1%% 26%% 2%% hydro% 8.4%% 1%% 5%% geothermal% 5.2%% 7%% 7%% % RUPTL Coal Oil Natural Gas Hydropower Biomass Geothermal Efficiency 28% 33% 38% 18% 29% 16% TransportaCon Loss 12.1% 12.1% 12.1% 12.1% 12.1% 12.1% Share 53.% 4.% 26.% 9.7%.3% 7.%

18 PROJECTED TRANSPORT VOLUME Both modal share and transport volume of private vehicle increase in 22 Baseline. In 22 CM, it is assumed that share of train increases volume of train become larger. Freight transport volume increases proportionally with growth of secondary industries. Passenger transport Freight transport Billion passanger.km 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, bike walk airplane ship motorcycle train bus Car Billion ton.km airplane ship train truck BaU CM CM(26%) All BaU 22 CM(26%) 22 CM All

19 FINAL ENERGY DEMAND PROJECTION (22) Million toe BaU 22 CM1 22 CM2 Biofuel Electricity Biomassa Gas Oil Coal By Fuel Difficult in moving away from oil Biomass is used in rural residential By Sector Industrial sector is main consumer Million toe BaU CM1 22 CM2 Commercial Industry Residential Freight Transport Passanger Transport

20 PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY AND CO2 PROJECTION (22) Million toe Biofuel Solar & Wind 25 Geothermal Biomassa Hydropower BaU 22 CM1 22 CM2 Gas Oil Coal Million Ton CO2 1, BaU 22 CM1 22 CM2 Other Sectors Other energy indusries Power supply Final demand sectors

21 4. GHG EMISSION LEVEL AND MITIGATION ACTIONS Giga ton CO Other Sectors Other energy indusries Power supply Final demand sectors BaU 22 CM(26%) 22 CM(41%) 4. CO 2 emission intensity ton CO 2 percapita BaU 22 CM(26%) 22 CM All

22 Drivers of GHG Emissions can be identified from IPAT identity : Impact = Population Affluence Technology CO 2 Emissions = Population (GDP/Population) (Energy/GDP) (CO 2 /Energy) ( Kaya multiplicative identity ) GDP E C Net C = P S P GDP E Energy Efficient Clean Energy and Technology Climate Change Mitigation Acions are to reduce Nett GHG Emisions

23 MITIGATION STRATEGIES Clean Energy: renewable/less carbon emitting energy and technology in residential/commercial; Low Carbon Lifestyle: efficiency improvement through appliances technology and society behavior in residential/commercial; Low Carbon Electricity: more renewable energy, efficient power generation (pulverized to sub-critical, supercritical, and integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) equipped with carbon capture and storage (CCS), and decreasing losses in T&D of electricity grids; Low Carbon Fuels Industry: energy shift (toward renewable and less carbon emitting fuels), efficiency improvement of industrial processes, equipment, and appliances; Sustainable transport: transport mode shift (more mass rapid transport), fuel shift (to renewable/ less carbon emitting fuels), reducing trip generation & trip distance (improvement infrastructure, telecommunication, information access), traffic management, efficiency improvement.

24 LOW CARBON DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES LCS Actions Clean Energy (Residential and Commercial) Low Carbon Style (Residential and Commercial) Low Carbon Electricity Renewable energy or Less CO2 Emission Energy Less CO2 Emission Energy Technology Society Behavior in Residential /Commercial Efficient energy technology appliances Renewable energy & Less CO2 Emission Energy Efficient energy technology of power generation Less CO2 Emission Energy Technology (Coal IGCC + CCS) Increasing Efficiency of T & D Renewable energy or Less CO2 Emission Energy Low carbon energy system in industry Efficient energy technology appliances Efficient energy process and processing technology Renewable energy or Less CO2 Emission Energy Sustainable transport modal shift (public/mass rapid transport utilization) Energy Efficiency Improvement Reduce trip generation and distance (improve Infrastructure, telecommunication, new urban design, traffic management

25 NATIONAL MITIGATION ACTON PLAN (RAN GRK) FugiCve reducion through LPG produccon in Oil and Gas Field Eff. Energy Technology in ResidenCal ( millions kwh) Increase energy efficiency in road transport Increase share of MRT Increase share of Train Modal shiv from Private Vehycle to walk and bycicle EcoDriving (Eff. Energy) Fuel subsctute Use more efficent car and bus Increase share of BRT 1 Modal ShiV (Private to MRT) ITS (Efficiency Energy in transport) and Modal ShiV (Private to MRT) 2 ITS (Efficiency Energy in transport) and Modal ShiV (Private to MRT) 1 Natural gas for city gas (945 residencal) Use gas fuel in city public transportacon Biogas (1 unit unit) Renewable Energy ImplementaCon Energy conservacon Community/Private (133 buildings&industries ) Energy management 2 companies (Intensive Energy) - 2, 4, 6, 8, 1, 12,

26 SUB- NATIONAL ACTION PLAN (RAD) FOR GREATER JAKARTA Energy efficient devices in industry Energy efficient devices in residencal Energy conservacon in non- government build. Energy conservacon in government build. Biofuel Train Fuel economy CNG MRT (mass rapid transport) Ecodriving TOD (Transit Oriented Development) ERP (Electronic Road Pricing) ITS (Intelligent Transport System) Park management Freight transport schedulling Regular vehicle emission test Renewal of public transport vehicle Bicycle lane Monorail Feeders busway Busway ,178 4,293 4,78 5,671 6, Kilo Ton CO2

27 Socio-economy, energy, and CO2 for each development scenario 45 Value of 25 = Base BaU CM1 CM2 1 5 Population GDP Final energy demand GHG emissions Million Ton C 1,2 1, 8 Freight Trans. Passenger Trans. Industry Commercial Residential 6 4 CO 2 emissions by sector, million ton C 2 25 Base BAU CM1 CM2

28 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 Million TOE biomass (+biofuel) solar wind geothermal nuclear hydro natural gas 1,2 1, 8 6 Million Toe electricity biomass solar wind Natural Gas Oil coal Base BaU CM1 CM2* * coal has inluded clean coal technology, CCS + IGCC 25 Base Bau CM1 CM2 Primary energy demand by type of energy Final energy demand by type of energy Million Toe 1,2 1, Passenger Transport Freight Transport Residential Commercial Industry Million Ton C 1,2 1, Freight Trans. Passenger Trans. Industry Commercial Residential BaU CM1 CM2 Final energy demand by sector 25 Base BAU CM1 CM2 CO 2 emissions by sector, million ton C

29 Million Ton C 1,2 1, 8 F-Transport P-Transport Industry Commercial Residential Residential Commercial CM1 CM2 Industry Passenger Freight Residential Commercial Industry Passenger Freight 6 (1) 4 (2) 2 (3) 25 Base BAU CM1 CM2 (4) (5) CO2 emission generation in demand side of energy system and reduction potential CM1 CM2 CM1 CM2 Coal reduction Oil rduction Natural gas reduction Solar wind Biomass/Biofuel Electricity Coal reduction Oil rduction Natural gas reduction Solar wind Biomass/Biofuel Electricity 2 Coal reduction Oil rduction Natural gas reduction Hydro nuclear Solar wind geothermal Biomass/Biofuel Clean coal (IGCC + CCS) coal Oil Natural Gas Hydro nuclear Solar wind geothermal Biomass/Biofuel Clean coal (IGCC + CCS) (2) (4) (6) (2) (8) (1,) (4) (1,2) (6) Emissions reduction potential in demand side and supply side (power sector)

30 Action 1 Clean Energy: Increase share of renewable/less carbon emitting fuels (a) Residential sector (b) Commercial sector 1% Electricity 1% 8% Biomass Solar & Wind 8% 6% Natural gas 6% 4% Oil Coal 4% 2% 2% % 25 BaU CM1 CM2 25 Base Bau CM1 CM2 % 4 Value in 25 = BAU CM1 CM2 Energy in Residential sector Emissions from Residential sector Energy in Commercial sector Emissions from Commercial sector

31 Action 2 Low Carbon Lifestyle: Energy demand (million toe) Other electric equipments Ref rigerator Lighting Kitchen Hot water Cooling Energy demand (milliion toe) Electricity Biomass Solar & Wind Gas Oil 25 BaU CM1 CM2 25 BaU CM1 CM2 Final energy demand by service (left) and by fuel (right) in residential sector Energy demand (million toe) Other electric equipments Ref rigerator Lighting Kitchen Hot water Cooling Energy demand (million toe) Electricity Biomass Solar Gas Oil 25 BaU CM1 CM2 25 BaU CM1 CM2 Final energy demand by service (left) and by fuel (right) in commercial sector

32 Action3: Low Carbon Electricity Energy efficiency (%) 6% 4% 2% 25, BaU CM1 CM2 1% 8% 6% 4% IGCC+CCS Biomass Solar, wind, geothermal Nuclear Hydro Gas 2% Oil % Coal Oil Gas Biomass IGCC +CCS Energy efficiency level of power generation in each scenario % 25 BaU CM1 CM2 Coal Share of power supply by energy type in each scenario Energy demand (milion toe) BaU CM1 CM2 Coal with CCS Gas Oil Coal Fuel consumption and CO 2 emission of power generation sector in each scenario CO2 emission (million ton-c) BaU CM1 CM2 Gas Oil Coal

33 ACTION 4: LOW CARBON ENERGY SUPPLY Energy demand (milion toe) BaU CM1 CM2 Coal with CCS Gas Oil Coal CO2 emission (million ton-c) BaU CM1 CM2 Gas Oil Coal Fuel consumption and CO 2 emission of power generation sector in each scenario

34 ACTION 5: SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT Transport demand (million passenger-km) 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 25 BAU CM1 CM2 Bike Walk Air Ship Two wheeler Train Bus Large vehicle Small vehicle Transport demand by transport mode in (a) passenger transport & (b) freight transport Transport demand (million t-km) BAU CM1 CM2 Air Ship Train Large vehicle Small vehicle Value in 25 = BaU CM1 CM2 Value in 25 = Passenger Transport Demand Energy Demand GHG Emissions Freight Transport Demand Energy Demand GHG Emissions Effect of passenger and freight transport demand to energy demand and CO 2 emissions

35 Acknowledgment NIES Indonesia Low Carbon Society Vision of In Energy Sector February, 21 Institut Teknologi Bandung (ITB) - Indonesia Retno Gumilang Dewi Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) - Japan Takuro Kobashi, Tatako Yakimaka Kyoto University - Japan Yuzuru Matsuoka and Kei Gomi Mizuho Information & Research Institute - Japan Tomoki Ehara National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) - Japan Mikiko Kainuma and Junichiro Fujino UN University Institute of Advance Studies Japan Joni Jupesta and Manuverghese Mathai

36 Thank You

37 POLICIES AND REGULATIONS There are numerous energy- climate policy inicacves, regulacons, and accons in energy sector that could result in CO 2 emission reduccon. The latest policy inicacve is non- binding emission reduccon target of 26% lower than baseline in 22 using domescc budget and further increased to 41% with internaconal support. To implement non- binding commitment, GOI prepares NaConal AcCons Plan to Reduce CO 2 Emissions. In addicon to the policy inicacves, most accons plan developed for achieving the LCS target will scll need policy measures to support the implementacons of these accons:

38 Policy measures to support the implementations of these actions: a. Increasing share of new/renewable energy and less carbon emitting fuels (include less carbon emitting technology) in energy supply mix to support implementation of PerPres No. 5/26. b. On-going programs considered to meet energy supply mix target are power generation crash program I and II (which include clean coal and geothermal), kerosene to LPG, mandatory of bio-fuel utilization in transport, power, and industry (MEMR 32/28); c. Increasing share of new/renewable (hydro, geothermal) and oil switch to natural gas as stated in the National Plan of Electricity Development (RUPTL) PLN ; d. Regulations that lead to the formulation of national master plan on energy efficiency; e. Policies to support MRT development, diversification of fuels (CNG/ LPG, bio-fuel, electricity) in transportation, and emissions monitoring and control of local emission and combustion efficiency that has implication to the CO 2 emissions generation.