UNDERSTANDING THE IMPACTS OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES

Transcription

1 UNDERSTANDING THE IMPACTS OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES REDUCING CO 2 EMISSIONS AND OIL DEPENDENCE Chris Nichols National Energy Technology Laboratory Nichols, USAEE Oct 2010

2 Presentation Overview 2 In current EPA-developed modeling framework, base case favors coal In the cap cases, coal continues to play major role due to CCS and improved efficiency technology Coal-based technologies have significant potential to reduce the impacts of CO2 limits while reducing oil imports Coal and nuclear power dominate electricity generation under all cases Under CO2 limit scenarios, alternative liquid fuels play limited role due to model framework Offsets delay technology, more advanced technologies overcome the effect of offsets Price behavior under offsets indicates that more modest goals of CO2 limits (~60% by 2050) may be more realistic

3 MARKAL Is a bottom-up energy-technology-environmental systems model Price-elastic demands, where energy demand is a function of the marginal cost Finds a least cost set of technologies to satisfy enduse energy service demands and user-specified constraints In case system costs are lower, the model changes a demand level instead of deploying emission reducing technologies Calculates resulting environmental emissions Can perform a variety of runs fairly quickly in order to determine sensistivies 3

4 MARKAL allows for running many scenarios Advanced coal technologies CO2 controls No CO2 controls in BASE cases Cap, tax and R&D cases BASE CTL/ CBTL IGFC EOR Transport Fuels Taxes CO 2 CAP CO 2 Taxes Offsets BASECTL X BASEIGFC X BASEEOR X BASEALLT X X X X BASETRTX X CAP83 X CAP83CTL X X CAP83IGF X X CAP8TRTX X X CAP83ALL X X X X CAP83ATT X X X X X CAP83OFF X X CAPALOFF X X X X X X CV45TT X X C20 X C20ALL X X X X CAP50 X CAP50OFF X X CAP5AOFF X X X X X 4

5 Total Primary Energy Cases where no CO2 controls are in place grow in line with historical trends and AEO projection Very restrictive CO2 limits (80% reduction) flattens total energy use starting around

6 Primary Energy Consumption Mix in 2035 Nuclear contribution nearly constant Renewables provide larger shares in CO2 limited cases Gas provides some backup to liquids in transportationtaxed cases Coal maintains around 1/3 of total energy in most cases 6

7 Carbon Dioxide Emissions Carbon tax scenarios show immediate reduction, then leveling off 80% reduction curves (w/ & w/o offsets) 7

8 Electricity Generation by Fuels: 2035 Coal and nuclear provide bulk of generation in most cases gas provides fill-in 8

9 CO 2 Emissions in Electricity Generation Electricity sector provides the bulk of entire CO2 reductions Ability for biomass cofiring and CCS provides negative emissions and are key factors in keeping coal in the mix 9

10 Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Transportation As compared to electricity sector, emissions from transportation do not go down as soon or as quickly Only in the most restrictive CO2 reduction cases do transportation emissions significantly reduce, and only starting around

11 Energy Consumption in Transportation by Fuel: 2035 Liquid fuels continue to dominate, except in transportation tax cases and very restrictive CO2 limits 11

12 Fossil Fuels Import: 2035 Fossil fuel imports follow closely with previous slide only cases with transportation tax or significant demand reduction for imports to go down 12

13 CO 2 Shadow Price, CO2 price explodes in the very restrictive 80% reduction case where no offsets or technology options are available - causing very dramatic reductions in overall energy use The price level at an 80% reduction with offsets about the same as a 50% reduction case or $45/tonne tax escalating over time 13

14 Marginal Abatement CO 2 Cost Curve Abatement curve sweet spot occurs up to about 4,500 MMmt of CO2 abated afterwards, CO2 price escalates to untenable levels 14

15 Lowered demand cases Lowering end-use demands exogenously brings CO2 price within reasonable bounds 15

16 Conclusions 16 In the EPA MARKAL modeling framework, coalbased technologies continue to provide large share of energy needs in nearly any scenario New technologies are key, both to minimizing the impacts of CO2 regulations, fuel taxes and offsets Allowing the model to run without user correction reveals many inflection points that are smoothed out in other organizations modeling efforts Current modeling platform and database have significant limitations in a deep CO2 reduction case: Demand growth, transportation options and technology cost and performance assumptions would all need revisiting

17 17 BACK-UP SLIDES

18 18 Electricity Generation by Fuels: 2050

19 New sets of technologies Coal-to-Liquids and Coal-Biomass-to-Liquids (CTL/CBTL) CTL with Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) CTL with CCS & Auto-Thermal Reformer (ATR) CBTL with CCS CBTL with CCS & ATR Integrated Gasification Fuel Cell Cycle (IGFC ) Press IGFC Press IGFC with CCS Atmospheric-Pressure IGFC Atmospheric-Pressure IGFC with CCS Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) Enhanced Oil Recovery through CO2 flooding coupled with CCS 19

20 New Technologies Deployment Characteristics Scenarios Press IGFC Press IGFC w CCS Atm Press IGFC w CCS CTL w CCS CBTL w CCS EOR CAP83IGF CAP83ALL CAP8ATT CAPALOFF C20ALL CAP5ALOF BASEALTT BASEIGFC BASECTL 20 Available (Year) NA NA NA Start (Year) NA NA NA Cumulative Production, , PJ NA NA NA Contribution in Supply 7% 18% NA NA NA Available (Year) Start (Year) Cumulative Production, , PJ Contribution in Supply 9% 14% 3.6% 30% Available (Year) Start (Year) Cumulative Production, , PJ Contribution in Supply 10% 11% 10.5% 31% Available (Year) Start (Year) Cumulative Production, , PJ Contribution in Supply 36% 7% 29.6% Available (Year) Start (Year) Cumulative Production, , PJ Contribution in Supply 43% 3% 30% Available (Year) Start (Year) Cumulative Production, , PJ Contribution in Supply 32% 18% 2% 30% Available (Year) Start (Year) Cumulative Production, , PJ Contribution in Supply 18% 31% 2% 30% Available (Year) 2020 NA NA NA Start (Year) 2020 NA NA NA Cumulative Production, , PJ NA NA NA Contribution in Supply 32% NA NA NA Available (Year) NA NA NA 2015 NA Start (Year) NA NA NA 2020 NA Cumulative Production, , PJ NA NA NA NA Contribution in Supply NA NA NA 26% NA

21 MARKAL Technology Definition 21 Year available Capital Cost, 2000$US FIXOM Cost, 2000$US VAROM Cost, 2000$US Capacity Factor, PJ/GWe Lifetime of new capacity Atm Pressure IGFC with CCS Atm Pressure IGFC Press IGFC with CCS Press IGFC IGCC IGCC with CCS Oxyfuel Coal Steam with CCS Pulverized Coal Steam Supercritical Coal Steam Fuel Cell CHP, Biomass Geothermal Binary Cycle and Flashed Stream Microturbine CHP, Biomass Microturbine CHP, NGA Natural Gas Advanced Combined Cycle Natural Gas Advanced Combustion Natural Gas Combined Cycle with CCS Solar PV Centralized Generation Solar PV Distributed Commercial Generation Solar PV Distributed Residential Generation Solar Thermal Centralized Generation Pre existing Nuclear LWRs Nuclear LWRs in Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR) Gas Turbine Modular Helium Reactor (GT MHR) Wind Generation

22 22 Carbon Dioxide Emissions per capita

23 23 Carbon Intensity of Primary Energy

24 24 Carbon Dioxide Emissions per capita:

25 25 Carbon Intensity of Primary Energy

26 26 Primary Energy per capita

27 27 Primary Energy Intensity

28 28 Cumulative System Costs,

29 Energy Consumption in Transportation by Fuel:

30 30 Fossil Fuels Import: 2005 and 2050

31 31 Effective Petroleum Price

32 32 Transportation Fossil Fuel Effective Price

33 33 CTL Production

34 34 Cumulative CTL Production

35 35 Carbon Dioxide Emissions Sequestration and Offsets CAP80ALLOFF

36 36 CO 2 Emissions Reduction and Price

37 Impact of offsets Red line shows delay of coal CCS technology deployment 37 With advanced R&D goals met, coal technology deploys earlier, even with offsets

38 EPA MARKAL Database Sector Transportation Electricity Commercial Technologies 15 personal vehicle technologies in 5 size classes; 40 other passenger and freight technologies 45 technologies 300 heating, cooling, ventilation, lighting, and refrigeration technologies Residential Industrial Coal supply 135 heating, cooling, lighting, and refrigeration technologies Framework covering 6 industries, 6 energy services 25 types by region, sulfur content, and mine type; 8-step supply curves Oil/gas supply 5 grades imported oil; 9 imported refined products plus natural gas; 3- step supply curves. Domestic oil and gas production under development Emissions CO 2, CH 4, N 2 0; criteria pollutants Vehicle-specific emissions for transport Control technology options for electricity Sector fuel averages for RCI 38