The Potential for Cost Reduction Hugo de Moor

Transcription

1 The Potential for Cost Reduction Hugo de Moor Results from the EU-Photex project

2 Price Projections Constant learning rate /Wp Price of PV Systems A LR = 0.3 GR = 20% B LR = 0.2 GR = 20% C LR = 0.1 GR = 20% D LR = 0.2 GR = 10% E Epia scenario Year Hugo de Moor Photex FinalMeeting Brussels 25 November

3 The Future of the past JPL Silicon Module Cost Studies (Source: JPL, 1986) Module Cost (Eur-2000/Wp) module encaps. mat. cell wafer silicon Status 1978 (1978) Target 1986 (1978) SoA projection Cz 1988 (1985) Projection Dendr. web 1992 (1985) Projections were too optimistic

4 Price distribution of residential PV systems BRD modules Euro/kWp kwp 5 kwp 2 kwp, 2002 inverter mounting structure, installation material installation labour planning, documentation Total Module cost dominant Hugo de Moor Photex FinalMeeting Brussels 25 November

5 What is the potential for module cost reduction? There is room for cost reduction - lower materials cost absorber (amount, purity) encapsulant - higher efficiency - taking advantage of economy-of-scale It is difficult to determine the annual cost reduction on the basis of R&D potential Hugo de Moor Photex FinalMeeting Brussels 25 November

6 Cost Break Down PV modules Materials 50% Cell Efficiency Yield Labour

7 Cost Break Down x-si (90% of market) Silicon wafer Cell Efficiency Module materials Labour (Note: Direct manufacturing cost do not include overhead such as R&D, Sales, Maintenance and Staff Departments)

8 Analysis of cost reduction x- Si Wafer cost Feedstock 30% Scrap from IC Indusry thickness /kg Fluctuating Independent supply needed => /kg Si (mg Si 2 $/kg) Silicon content g/wp g/wp sheets (EFG, RGS), wafer Crystallisation cast, sheets Wafering

9 Analysis of cost reduction x- Si Cell Processing Labour, Equipment Efficiency, (yield, uptime) Plant size Efficiency 12-14% 15-18% Plant Size MWp 50 MWpa MWp 300 MWpa MWp 2 GWpa

10 Analysis of cost reduction x- Si ECU'96/Wp Effect of Plant Size on Price 2, MWp/Year Margin Module Manufacturing Cell Manufacturing Slicing Growing Source, Alonso et al., 1995 (Music-FM study)

11 Analysis of cost reduction x- Si Module Assembly Materials, Labour Yield Scale-up Laminates Tedlar 17% Frame 18% New encapsulants Back contact cells EVA 20% Capital 12% Glass 10% Labour 7% Overhead 10% Tabs 6% Maycock 2000

12 Analysis of sources of cost reduction Price Forecasts Maycock $/Wp $/Wp $/Wp Epia /Wp /Wp /Wp

13 Price development in Japan Modules ($/Wp) = 1$ Ogawa (NEDO) 12th PVSEC

14 Cost Break Down a-si Cell Efficiency Materials Module materials Labour Yield

15 Analysis of cost reduction a-si Developments Efficiency >> 5-8% 8-14% Higher throughput CVD Low-cost TCO Double glass Single glass plastic foils Process control (uniformity, yield)

16 Analysis of sources of cost reduction Price Forecasts Maycock $/Wp? $/Wp $/Wp

17 Cost potential of inverters Inverter is only 10-15% of system cost Important for system performance and reliability New concepts Less components Economy-ofscale Standardisation Hugo de Moor Photex FinalMeeting Brussels 25 November

18 Cost potential of inverters System performance and reliability Mismatch loss parallel (AC-module, PV Wirefree, Bus) Ease of installation Duplication Range of inverters W W needed - Do it yourself vs profesional installers Hugo de Moor Photex FinalMeeting Brussels 25 November

19 Inverter development Hugo de Moor Photex FinalMeeting Brussels 25 November

20 Some conclusions on cost potential Module prices make up 70%-80% of systems Focus for cost reduction efforts BOS: reliable, energy output Material costs most important part of module costs Solar Si feedstock production Less material Less pure material Higher efficiency Economy-of-Scale R&D and sustainable market Hugo de Moor Photex FinalMeeting Brussels 25 November

21 What will be our products? Coming 20 years improving current technology x-si and thin-films (Film-Si, CIS) After 2020 new concepts are needed BIPV Small power plants (grid quality) SHS s Long term bulk-power > 2030 Hugo de Moor Photex FinalMeeting Brussels 25 November