Top Sectors, TKI s and targets Solar energy innovation in Dutch practice and global perspective

Transcription

1 Top Sectors, TKI s and targets Solar energy innovation in Dutch practice and global perspective Wim Sinke ECN Solar Energy, TKI Solar Energy, University of Amsterdam, FOM-Institute AMOLF and European Photovoltaic Technology Platform Bijeenkomst Vereniging voor Zonnekrachtcentrales UvA, Science Park Amsterdam Solstice

2 Contents New Dutch innovation policy about Top Sectors, TKI s and Innovation Contracts Innovation Contract & TKI Solar Energy a brief history of development targets and numbers structure and status Photovoltaics science, technology and applications at a glance from niche to terawatts: successes and growing pains its role for NL PV and CSP (and solar fuels): a winning team - a message yet to be conveyed? 2

3 Contents New Dutch innovation policy about Top Sectors, TKI s and Innovation Contracts Innovation Contract & TKI Solar Energy a brief history of development targets and numbers structure and status Photovoltaics science, technology and applications at a glance from niche to terawatts: successes and growing pains its role for NL PV and CSP (and solar fuels): a winning team - a message yet to be conveyed? 3

4 Essentials of new innovation policy Focus on a limited number of economic sectors ( Top Sectors ) Use (shrinking) public funds more efficiently and effectively Put private sector (SME s + large companies) in the driver s seat For each Top Sector: Organise innovation through golden triangle (private sector, knowledge sector, government), or rather platinum quadrangle ( + NGO s) Appoint Top Team: 1 SME representative, 1 knowledge sector representative, 1 government representative, 1 boegbeeld ( sector face ) Appoint Steering Group Develop roadmap + implementation plan per subsector (= Innovation Contract) Establish (one or more per subsector) Top Consortium Knowledge & Innovation (TKI) as vehicle for execution of Innovation Contract 4

5 9 Top Sectors as focus for economic development & innovation High Tech Systems & Materials Agro-Food Water Energy Horticulture & Starting Materials Chemicals Creative Industries Logistics Life-sciences (Head Offices) 5

6 Contents New Dutch innovation policy about Top Sectors, TKI s and Innovation Contracts Innovation Contract & TKI Solar Energy a brief history of development targets and numbers structure and status Photovoltaics science, technology and applications at a glance from niche to terawatts: successes and growing pains its role for NL PV and CSP (and solar fuels): a winning team - a message yet to be conveyed? 6

7 Meet the Top Team Energy 7

8 Subsectors Energy (TKI s) Solar Energy Energy Efficiency in the Built Environment Offshore Wind Energy Bio-energy Smart Grids Energy Efficiency in the Industry Gas TKI Solar Energy TKI EnerGO TKI Wind op Zee TKI Biobased Economy TKI Switch2SmartGrids TKI ISPT TKI Gas 8

9 A brief history of events September 2011 : December 2011: February 2012: March 2012: April 2012: invitation to develop Innovation Contracts (IC s) submission vs1; review by Top Team & Steering Group submission vs2; review by Top Team & Steering Committee budget allocation submission of Action Plan 2012 (reduced budget) Minister Verhagen formally signs contracts April Dec 2012: establish TKI s / from plans to projects 9

10 Innovation Contract Solar Energy (2012) Targets: creation of jobs (from 2000 in 2010 to 10,000 in 2020) generation of sustainable energy (from 100 MWp to 4 GWp in 2020 and >20 GWp in 2030 and beyond) Features: Letters of Commitment & Intent 100 M over 5 yrs private/public contributions 45%/55% (required >40%/60%) 10

11 Innovation Contract Solar Energy 11

12 Contents New Dutch innovation policy about Top Sectors, TKI s and Innovation Contracts Innovation Contract & TKI Solar Energy a brief history of development targets and numbers structure and status Photovoltaics science, technology and applications at a glance from niche to terawatts: successes and growing pains its role for NL PV and CSP (and solar fuels): a winning team - a message yet to be conveyed? 13

13 Cell & module technologies Commercial Flat plate: wafer-based silicon (>85%) - monocrystalline - multicrystalline & quasi mono Module efficiencies 14 21% City of the Sun (NL) Toyota Würth Solar Helianthos First Solar Flat plate: thin films (<15%) - cadmium telluride (CdTe) - copper-indium/gallium-diselenide/sulphide (CIGSS) - silicon Module efficiencies 7 14% FhG-ISE Abengoa/Concentrix Concentrator (<1%) - multi-junction III-V semiconductors - silicon Module efficiencies 25 30% 14

14 Concepts & technologies Lab and pilot production super-high-efficiency concepts (nanotechnology at km 2 area) full use of all light colors advanced light management & concentration super-low-cost concepts (& technologies for new applications) very fast and non-vacuum processing low-cost materials & low material use Example: spectrum conversion using quantum dots (Univ. of Amsterdam) Example: polymer solar cell (Solliance) 15

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16 Commercial module efficiencies (selection) History + short-term projections (announced) wafer Si IBC wafer Si IBC wafer Si IBC wafer Si HIT wafer Si mono CdTe wafer Si multi CIGS tf a/µcsi M.J. de Wild-Scholten SmartGreenScans tf asi

17 Commercial module efficiencies History + long-term projections (simplified estimates)

18 Building blocks: system approaches milliwatts to gigawatts grid-connected, stand-alone integrated, add-on, ground-based / buildings, infrastructure, field electricity only, multifunctional (incl. PV-T) fixed orientation, sun tracking and more Sharp Corp. Mun. Heerhugowaard Enel Phoenix Solar 19

19 Historic market growth - global Annual installations and cumulative capacity (MWp) 100 GWp (0.1 TWp) Source: EPIA (2013) Data 2012 preliminary

20 Contributions of renewables to electricity consumption in Germany EU total: 2,5% Bron: Fraunhofer ISE (2013) 21

21 Great expectations Possible contributions PV (Germany) 15-30% PV 22

22 Grid integration Germany explores (and shifts) the frontiers M. Lippert, SAFT Source: Fraunhofer ISE (2013) 23

23 Grid integration Effect on peak electricity prices Gaëtan Masson EU PVTP GA

24 Installed capacity NL: what did we achieve so far? Correction: end MWp End 2012: 340 MWp (polderpv.nl)

25 Towards impact: the first step National Action Plan: 4 GW in 2020 Action Plan: 4 GW in ,5-3% of NL electricity consumption EU-average 2012: 2,5% Germany 2012: 5,7% (2020: 9-12%?) Realistic range NL 2020: 4-8 GW 5-6% of electricity consumption = 1% of energy end-use = half of increase of target 14% 16% Technical potential NL: >100 GW (>300 PJ e )

26 PV rooftop system prices Germany ( kwp) x ⅓ Source: FhG ISE (2012)

27 Price-experience curve PV modules Effects of volume and innovation Fraunhofer ISE (2013) 28

28 Price-experience curve PV modules Effects of volume and innovation 2020 Fraunhofer ISE (2013) 29

29 Breyer et 2011 Great expectations Global market potential 2020

30 Towards impact: 20 GW in 2030 (re: EU PV GRID project) Produced electricity: TWh (using A ánd B locations) Electricity consumption 2012: 120 TWh Electricity consumption 2030: 150 TWh? 20 GW PV contributes 10 12% to total consumption (if overall losses can be kept small)

31 20 GW: what does it 10 40% module efficiency: km 2 net area (up to 500 km 2 gross area) 2 8 million family house roof equivalents high efficiency is key for large-scale use Integration: 1. electrical: grid (>100% penetration) 2. societal: you cannot hide 20 GW of PV 3. physical: buildings, infrastructure and landscape

32 Public support: the horror case PV shoved down the throat Oh my God, please help our country and send us a terrific and destructive hailstorm! Courtesy Michael Marčák 33

33 Opportunities missed (or: threat?) PV as technology only 34

34 The opportunity (or: necessity?) PV as technology ánd design RidderSolar ECN s Black Beauty 35

35 Beyond design and yield PV as statement Columbuskwartier, Almere Utrecht CS Zadar Coast, Croatia Kaohsiung, Taiwan Green Pix; Beijing, China 36

36 Total quality (assurance) Necessity for GW-scale use Components, systems, installers, production processes, etc. Broad lack of understanding; many urban legends (Desperate) need for coordination, information and communication? High priority in R&D and industry 37

37 Sustainability Materials

38 Sustainability Materials introduction of new materials driven by (potential) scarcity or price risks, e.g.: silver copper or indium zinc-tin x7 in 7 years 39

39 Contents New Dutch innovation policy about Top Sectors, TKI s and Innovation Contracts Innovation Contract & TKI Solar Energy a brief history of development targets and numbers structure and status Photovoltaics science, technology and applications at a glance from niche to terawatts: successes and growing pains its role for NL PV and CSP (and solar fuels): a winning team - a message yet to be conveyed? 40

40 IEA Solar Energy Perspectives Scenario Testing the Limits total energy 41

41 IEA Solar Energy Perspectives Mainstreaming of solar electricity 42

42 Shell Lens Scenarios global/future-energy/ scenarios.html 43

43 Shell Lens Scenarios 44

44 Shell Lens Scenarios (Oceans) 45

45 The future at a glance Current 2020 Long-term potential Commercial module efficiency flat plate/concentrator (%) 6 21 / / Turn-key system price (flat plate) ( /Wp) Cost of electricity (LCoE, /kwh) Energy pay-back time (yrs) Installed capacity (TWp)

46 The future at a glance Current 2020 Long-term potential Commercial module efficiency (%) 5 20 / (Si: 12 20) / (Si: 16 24) (Si: ) Turn-key system price (flat plate) ( /Wp) Cost of electricity (LCoE, /kwh) Energy pay-back time (yrs) Installed capacity (TWp) x 2 3 x ½ ⅓ x

47 48 City of the Sun, Municipality of Heerhugowaard, NL