Martin Rocholl ECF Policy Director

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1 0 Our Mission: The European Climate Foundation aims to promote climate and energy policies that greatly reduce Europe s greenhouse gas emissions and help Europe play an even stronger international leadership role in mitigating climate change Martin Rocholl ECF Policy Director martin.rocholl@europeanclimate.org

2 Entwicklung der Temperaturen in Europa European summer temperatures ( ) Business as usual Szenario In the framework of global warming: less unlikely ~ heat deaths Quelle: PIK

3 Veränderung des Niederschlags Change in annual precipitation in % (Period 2071/2100 in comparison to 1961/1990, SRES A2) climat/adaptation/index_en.htm Quelle: PIK

4 Gemessene Veränderungen des Niederschlags EEA 2008

5 Die zu erwartenden Ergebnisse der globalen Verhandlungen laufen auf mindestens 3 hinaus. Global GHG emissions and pathways for GHG stability GtCO2e per year Low range of proposals High range of proposals Peak at 550 ppm, long-term stabilization 550 ppm Peak at 510 ppm, long-term stabilization 450 ppm Peak at 480 ppm, long-term stabilization 400 ppm Probability of temperature increase under 2 C 15-30% 40-60% Expected temperature increase 3.0 C 2.0 C Source: IPCC WG3 AR4,, den Elzen, van Vuuren; Meinshausen; Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0; Catalyst analysis; C-ROADS 70-85% 1.8 C Quelle: McKinsey 4

6 Globale Treibhausgas-Minderungspotentiale und ihre Kosten Residential electronics Residential appliances Retrofit residential HVAC Tillage and residue mgmt Insulation retrofit (residential) Cars full hybrid Waste recycling Organic soil restoration Cropland nutrient management Lighting switch incandescent to LED (residential) 1 st generation biofuels Rice management Efficiency improvements other industry Electricity from landfill gas Clinker substitution by fly ash Motor systems efficiency Insulation retrofit (commercial) Small hydro Degraded forest reforestation Nuclear Pastureland afforestation Degraded land restoration 2 nd generation biofuels Building efficiency new build Low penetration wind Cars plug-in hybrid Geothermal Grassland management Reduced pastureland conversion Reduced slash and burn agriculture conversion Iron and steel CCS new build Coal CCS new build Power plant biomass co-firing Reduced intensive agriculture conversion High penetration wind Solar PV Solar CSP Breakdown by abatement type Abatement potential GtCO 2 e per year 30% for terrestrial carbon (forestry and agriculture) 40% for energy efficiency 30% for low carbon energy supply Quelle: McKinsey

7 Treibhausgas-Minderungspotentiale in Europa und ihre Kosten Abatement potential in the EU 27 (in 2030): Abatement cost per tco 2 e Buildings: Lighting switch incandescents to LEDs, residential Buildings: Appliances, residential Buildings: Retrofit building envelope, commercial 100 Buildings: Water heating replacement of electric, residential 80 Buildings: Lighting retrofit controls, commercial Transport: ICE improvements in light duty diesel vehicles, package 4 Buildings: Retrofit building envelope, residential Forestry: Pastureland afforestation Nuclear Forestry: Degraded forest restoration Solar PV Buildings: Retrofit building envelope, residential, package 2 On-shore wind Solar concentrators Iron & Steel: CCS retrofit Biomass CCS, new build Petroleum & Gas: CCS Coal CCS new build Coal CCS retrofit Off-shore wind ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3, Agriculture: Organic soils restoration Industry other than Cement, Chemicals, Iron & Steel, Petroleum & Gas Abatement volume MtCO 2 e -80 Buildings: New build efficiency package, residential Transport: Sea Transport: ICE improvements in light duty gas vehicles, package 4 Transport: ICE improvements in light duty gas vehicles, package 3 -> Regulierung -> Programme -> Subventionen und Finanzierungshilfen Quelle: McKinsey (weitere Veröffentlichung nur mit Zustimmung von McKinsey)

8 Treibhausgas-Minderungspotentiale in Europa und ihre Kosten Abatement cost per tco 2 e Abatement potential in the EU 27 (in 2030): Buildings: Lighting switch incandescents to LEDs, residential Buildings: Appliances, residential Buildings: Retrofit building envelope, commercial 100 Buildings: Water heating replacement of electric, residential 80 Buildings: Lighting retrofit controls, commercial Transport: ICE improvements in light duty diesel vehicles, package 4 Buildings: Retrofit building envelope, residential Forestry: Pastureland afforestation Nuclear Forestry: Degraded forest restoration Solar PV Buildings: Retrofit building envelope, residential, package 2 On-shore wind Solar concentrators Iron & Steel: CCS retrofit Biomass CCS, new build Petroleum & Gas: CCS Coal CCS new build Coal CCS retrofit Off-shore wind ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3, Agriculture: Organic soils restoration Industry other than Cement, Chemicals, Iron & Steel, Petroleum & Gas Abatement volume MtCO 2 e Buildings: New build efficiency package, residential Transport: Sea Transport: ICE improvements in light duty gas vehicles, package 4 Transport: ICE improvements in light duty gas vehicles, package 3 Preis für CO2: -> Ökologische Finanzreform -> ambitioniertes ETS -> 100% Versteigerung -> Begrenzung des CDM Quelle: McKinsey

9 Treibhausgas-Minderungspotentiale in Europa und ihre Kosten Abatement cost per tco 2 e Abatement potential in the EU 27 (in 2030): Buildings: Lighting switch incandescents to LEDs, residential Buildings: Appliances, residential Buildings: Retrofit building envelope, commercial 100 Buildings: Water heating replacement of electric, residential 80 Buildings: Lighting retrofit controls, commercial Transport: ICE improvements in light duty diesel vehicles, package 4 Buildings: Retrofit building envelope, residential Forestry: Pastureland afforestation Nuclear Forestry: Degraded forest restoration Solar PV Buildings: Retrofit building envelope, residential, package 2 On-shore wind Solar concentrators Iron & Steel: CCS retrofit Biomass CCS, new build Petroleum & Gas: CCS Coal CCS new build Coal CCS retrofit Off-shore wind ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3, Agriculture: Organic soils restoration Industry other than Cement, Chemicals, Iron & Steel, Petroleum & Gas Abatement volume MtCO 2 e Buildings: New build efficiency package, residential Transport: Sea Transport: ICE improvements in light duty gas vehicles, package 4 Transport: ICE improvements in light duty gas vehicles, package 3 -> Forschungsförderung -> Anschubfinanzierung -> Subventionen/Programme Quelle: McKinsey

10 9 These 1: Eine Steuerung über den Preis allein, wird nicht ausreichen, geht zu langsam und ist ökonomisch und sozial nicht praktikabel. These 2: Wir brauchen neben dem Preissignal auch Regulierung, staatliche Programme, Subventionen und Finanzierungshilfen. These 3: Die Öko-/Energie-/CO2-Besteuerung ist vor allem nötig, um das Einkommen für die entsprechenden Programme zu generieren.