The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040
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1 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 24 Joost Van Roost, ExxonMobil Benelux Deloitte Dutch Oil & Gas Conference Rotterdam, June 25, 213 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
2 Energy Outlook Development 1 countries 15 demand sectors 2 fuel types technology & policy ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy
3 Global Progress Drives Demand Population Billion Average Growth / Yr % GDP Trillion 25$ 12 1 Average Growth / Yr % Energy Demand Quadrillion BTUs Average Growth / Yr % Energy Saved ~ Non OECD 2 2 OECD ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy
4 Electricity Generation Leads Growth Energy Demand by Sector Quadrillion BTUs Electricity Demand Electricity Generation Industrial Transportation Res/Comm ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy
5 Transportation
6 Transportation Demand Sector Demand MBDOE 75 6 Rail Marine Demand by Region MBDOE Aviation Heavy Duty Light Duty AP NA Europe LA ME ROW ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy
7 Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes Powertrain Technology Millions of Vehicles PHV/EV Advanced* Full Hybrid CNG CNG LPG LPG Conv. Diesel Diesel Conv Conv. Mogas Gasoline Conv 1 North America Europe OECD Other OECD China India Middle East Latin America Other Non OECD ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy *Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles
8 Europe Transportation Demand Transportation MBDOE Rail Marine Aviation Heavy Duty Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Million Cars Conv. Diesel CNG/LPG PHV/EV Hybrid 2 Light Duty 5 Conv. Gasoline ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy
9 Electricity generation
10 Electricity Demand by Region Non OECD OECD Thousand TWh Thousand TWh Russia/Caspian Southeast Asia Other Non OECD Middle East 1 Africa India 1 Other OECD Europe OECD 5 China 5 North America ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy
11 Fueling Electricity Generation Varies by Region Electricity Generation Quadrillion BTUs 3 Growth in Fuels from 21 to 24 Quadrillion BTUs Renewables 9 Renewables 2 Nuclear Non OECD 6 Nuclear 15 Coal 3 Gas 1 Coal 5 OECD Gas Oil Oil Non OECD OECD ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy
12 Europe Electricity Demand Electricity Demand Thousand Terawatt Hour 5 Electricity Generation Fuel Consumption Quadrillion BTUs 35 4 Transportation 3 Other Renewables Wind & Solar Commercial 25 Biomass 3 2 Nuclear 2 Residential 15 Other Industry 1 Coal 1 Heavy Industry 5 Gas Oil ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy
13 Economic Choices for Europe Electricity Baseload, Startup Eurocents/kWh 2 $6/ton of CO Reliability Cost 8 4 $/ton Coal Gas Nuclear Onshore Wind* Solar PV Utility* *Wind and solar exclude costs for integration, backup capacity and additional transmission ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy
14 Renewables Gain Share United States Percent of TWh Europe Percent of TWh Asia Pacific Percent of TWh 45 4 Solar Geothermal Biomass/Other Wind Hydro '1 '2 '3 '4 '1 '2 '3 '4 '1 '2 '3 '4 *Biomass includes Municipal Solid Waste ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy
15 Energy Mix Continues to Evolve Quadrillion BTUs % % Average Growth / Yr % 1.% %.4% % 1.8% Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Solar / Wind / Biofuels Hydro / Geo ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy
16 CO 2 Emissions Plateau By Region Billion Tons 4 Emissions Per Capita Tons per Person 2 3 Rest of Non OECD 15 2 India 1 1 China OECD China India U.S. Europe ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy
17 Europe Energy Demand and Supply By Sector Quadrillion BTUs By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Res/Comm 8 Other Renewables Biomass 6 Industrial 6 Nuclear Coal 4 Electricity Generation 4 Gas 2 Transportation 2 Oil ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy
18 Europe Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions By Sector Billion Tons By Fuel Billion Tons Res/Comm Industrial 3 Coal 2 Electricity Generation 2 Gas 1 1 Transportation Liquids ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy
19 Supply
20 Liquids Supply Supply by Type MBDOE 12 Biofuels Other Liquids Resource* TBO 6 1 NGLs 5 8 Oil Sands Tight Oil Deepwater 4 Remaining Resource Conventional Crude & Condensate 2 1 Cumulative Production ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy * Source: IEA
21 Natural Gas Supply and Demand Shifts North America Gas Supply BCFD 12 Global Gas Supply BCFD 6 1 LNG 5 Rest of World Unconventional 8 4 North America Unconventional 6 Local Unconventional Rest of World Conventional 2 Local Conventional North America Conventional ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy
22 Global Gas Resource Over 2 years coverage at current demand North America Europe OECD Russia/ Caspian* TCF 3 Middle East 25 2 Unconventional Asia Pacific Conventional Latin America Africa World Source: IEA; *Includes Europe Non OECD
23 Gas Demand Grows and Supply Diversifies North America Europe Asia Pacific BCFD BCFD BCFD LNG Unconventional Local Production Conventional Pipeline ExxonMobil 213 Outlook for Energy
24 Hydraulic Fracturing
25 Shale Gas: Demonstrate Responsibility Aquifers Water Demonstrate Responsibility Local Area Ground
26 Shale Gas Production Process Uses two established technologies: horizontal drilling (196s+) and hydraulic fracturing (195s+) Both widely used in Europe for decades Shale reservoirs are generally 2,m to 4,m below surface Water, sand and additives are pumped at pressure into the shale, opening up hairline fractures that allow gas to flow Thousands of meters of impermeable rock separate fractures from drinking water aquifers Source: Total Shale Fractures cannot propagate to the surface
27 Aquifer Protection Multiple layers of steel casing and cement Aquifers protected by several layers of steel and impermeable cement No different from a conventional oil or gas well, or geothermal well Steel casings 5cm cement Source: Total Shale Source: OGP
28 Opportunities: Economic Benefits Henry Hub = virtual trading location USA (natural gas pipeline system in Erath, Louisiana ) NBP = National Balancing Point virtual trading location UK JAPAN JLNG = Japan Liquefied Natural Gas Import Price EUROPE US Sources: Platts, ICIS ESGM Heren Report and Waterbourne
29 Liquefied Natural Gas Adriatic LNG Terminal
30 LNG Supply Source: IHS CERA Disclaimer: No portion of this slide may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written CERA consent
31 BCM Europe LNG Supply Potential Pacific Supply ME Supply Net LNG Available to Europe Atlantic Supply 5 BCM 12 BCM 17 BCM Significant volumes of LNG available to Europe BCM 215 (~1% Demand) to 17 BCM in 23 (~ 25% Demand) Source: WoodMackenize Research (1H 212 Gas & Power Tool)
32
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