Renewable Energy Technology Road-mapping

Transcription

1 Renewable Energy Technology Road-mapping Assessment of Renewable Energy Technologies using Multi-Criteria Decision-Analysis Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority A.G.T. Sugathapala, K.A.C. Seneviratne, S.A.G.C. Subasinghe, W.D.A.G.K. Katugaha

2 CONTENT Renewable Energy Exploration Renewable Energy Resources Resource Maps Resource Inventories Technology Road-Mapping Resource Technology Options Prioritization Analytical Hierarchical Process Weighted Sum Matrix Model Illustration Example Discussion 2

3 RENEWABLE ENERGY EXPLORATION The Strategic Approach RESOURCE MAPS Technical potential of RE Wind 20,000 MW, Solar Extremely high, Small Hydro 800 MW & Biomass 8,000 MW RESOURCE INVENTORY TECHNOLOGY ROAD MAP Exploitable RE potentials considering socio-environmental limitations Wind 5,000 MW, Solar 18,000 MW +, Small Hydro 800 MW & Biomass 1,000 MW A systematic framework To prioritize different RE Resource-Technology-Application options, focusing policy targets 3

4 RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES Resource Maps Solar (kwh/m 2 /yr) 1,247 1,556 1,557 1,653 1,654 1,727 1,728 1,789 1,790 1,840 1,841 1,899 1,890 1,932 1, ,968 2,005 2,006 2,106 Hydro Hydro Potential Areas River Network Wind Biomass Dendro Plantations Restricted Areas Poor Moderate Good Very Good Excellent < 50,000 50, , , , , ,000 > 200,000 Tons per Annum Sources : NREL and SLSEA Resource Maps 4

5 Challenges for Implementation RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES Technology Road-Mapping The Concept Waste / Agro-residues Solar Home Solar PV Net metering Micro-hydro Pico-hydro Wind: Hill-country Wind: Onshore Biomass: MSW Solar PV Mini Hydro: Irrigation Channels Biomass: Cogeneration Pump Storage: Large-hydro OTEC Ocean Wave Wind: Offshore CSP Biomass: Dendro power Biomass: Co-firing Hydrogen Storage Geothermal Small Hydro Wind Biomass Solar Geothermal Ocean Storage Today Mini Hydro Mini Hydro: Low head Ice Storage Pump Storage: Lift irrigation 1 st Phase 2 nd Phase Time Horizon 3 rd Phase BAU (lighter pie) vs additional energy potential (darker pie) Towards Sustainable Energy Systems 5

6 RESOURCE-TECHNOLOGY-OPTIONS PRIORITIZATION Evaluation of RE resource-technology- options in terms of implementation difficulty and planning period Prioritization based on the Multi-Criteria Decision- Analysis (MCDA) a. Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) & b. Weighted Sum Matrix (WSM) 6

7 a. ANALYTICAL HIERARCHICAL PROCESS (AHP) 1. Problem Decomposition Goal To assess the implementation difficulties of renewable resource for electricity generation Criteria Technical Financial Social Environmental Other Subcriteria Grid Availability Dispatch flexibility Technology Transfer Technology cost- Investment Life Cycle Cost Financing Availability Social Acceptance Life Cycle Cost Socio-Economic Impact Outdoor Air Quality Green House Gas Mitigation Opportunity WLB Impact Land Availability National Policies and Strategies Institutional Arrangements Information PV CSP Off Grid On-Grid Complex Terrain Alternatives Mini Micro Low head On Grid Off Grid MSW On Shore Off Shore Hydro Solar Biomass Wind 7

8 a. ANALYTICAL HIERARCHICAL PROCESS cont.. 2. Comparative analysis - Pair wise comparison of sustainability criteria 3. Computation of Priority Values b. WEIGHTED SUM MATRIX MODEL Evaluate Technology Options 8

9 ILLUSTRATION EXAMPLE : GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION Prioritization of RE resource-technology-options High Implementation Difficulty Solar CSP Solar PV Wind Onshore Small Hydro MSW Low Time (Development Periods) 9

10 ILLUSTRATION EXAMPLE : CRITERIA-WISE PERFORMANCE Performance of selected technology applications with respect to criteria Technical Criteria Other Financial Criteria Solar CSP Solar PV Wind On Shore Small Hydro Environment al Criteria Social Criteria MSW 10

11 DISCUSSION Effective tool for policy makers and planners Comprehensive understanding about the RE resourcetech-applications is required Should be supported by data/literature information Difficulty of selecting mutually independent sub criteria for two axis (Implementation difficulty & Deployment period) Importance of engagement of stakeholders throughout this process Monitoring and evaluating mechanism, feedback for continuous improvement Acknowledgements for the organizers of ACEF

12 Computation of Priority Values Technical Financial Social Environmental Other Normalized Eigen Vectors Technical Financial Social / Environmental Other Normalized Eigen Vectors Weights of sustainable criteria Equally distribution of Weights 12

13 WEIGHTED SUM MATRIX MODEL AHP Weight of the Criteria Assigned Weight for the Sub Criteria X 3 Assign Weight by evaluating against a Technology Max Weight for the Sub criteria Actual Weight Score for the Sub Criteria Summation of Maximum weights of Criteria Summation of Actual Weights of Criteria Normalized Value 14