International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaic (ITRPV) - 4 th Edition - Results 2012

Transcription

1 International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaic (ITRPV) - 4 th Edition - Results 2012 Stephan Raithel, SEMI Europe, Director PV Europe 10 July, San Francisco

2 AGENDA Introduction of the 4 th edition of the ITRPV PV learning curve and cost considerations ITRPV 4 rd edition - some results Materials - Processes - Products Summary and Outlook 2

3 ITRPV history and structure - Started w/ 9 European cell-manufacturing companies in June Publication of 1st edition at the PV FMF 2010 (supported by SEMI PV Group) - Extended along the value chain + including of new companies - data of participants are processed by SEMI agreed results are published - Today: publication of the 4 th edition with results collected Working group now includes important players from Asia and Europe ITRPV working group structure ITRPV Steering Committee (2 co-chairs from each region & SEMI representative*) c-si wafermodule PV System Inverter Silicon Other technical topics deppend on input of the industry 3

4 ITRPV Methodology and structure Parameters in main areas are discussed along the value chain for: Materials - Poly-Silicon, Crystallization & Wafering - Cell processing - Module manufacturing Process Products SILICON CRYSTAL. WAFER CELL MODULE SYSTEM Poly-Si Ingot wafer cell module system value chain elements considered by the 4 th edition of the ITRPV 4

5 AGENDA Introduction of the 4 th edition of the ITRPV PV learning curve and cost considerations ITRPV 4 rd edition - some results Materials - Processes - Products Summary and Outlook 5

6 The challenging price race of the PV industry * clear goal: competitive PV-based power generation What measures have to be taken to keep path? The ITRPV roadmap describes the way 6

7 Cost considerations Price drop below cost challenges the PV industry mc-si module price 01/13: 0,694 US$/Wp* PRICES ALONG THE VALUE CHAIN (in USD/ Wp) How to improve the cost position further w/o sacrificing quality and efficiency? ITRPV helps to set the right markers * Avg. Module prices end of January 2013 source: BNEF (Bloomberg New Energy Finance), Energy Trend, PV Insights. 7

8 Cost considerations Poly Si price dropped during the last years: 2010: 67$/kg E 2011: 30$/kg 2H $/kg Module price dropped during the last years: : 1.87 $/Wp : 0.69$/Wp : 17$/kg prices drop below cost. in a tough battle Avg. Module prices source: BNEF (Bloomberg New Energy Finance), Energy Trend, PV Insights. 8

9 AGENDA Introduction of the 4 th edition of the ITRPV PV learning curve and cost considerations ITRPV 4 rd edition - some results Materials - Processes - Products Summary and Outlook 9

10 ITRPV Results Materials Poly - Si / Wafering Poly-Si: PV grade poly-si quality between 8N and 9N sufficient, also for high eta cells Poly-Si technologies will improve and compete for cost reductions umg Si expected w/ small share Wafering: Diamond wire based sawing will become dominant for Mono from 2017 on Synchronization in cell processing needed Slurry based sawing will be dominating in mc-si wafering Kerf less technologies not yet seen as cost competitive against matured technologies 10

11 ITRPV Results Materials Cell Wafer thickness trend had to be revised again µm wafers preferred due to cost benefits vs. material savings But: gap between module and wafer/cell manufacturer expectations But: gap between Requirements of Manufacturers for module and wafer/cell 11

12 ITRPV Results Materials - Cell Reduction of Silver consumption per cell - necessary as Silver is most expensive material - Cu is supposed to replace Silver starting in 2015 but for Cu, solutions for reliability and adhesion have to be available - mainstream technology in metallization : screen printing for years to come plating will compete from 2015 = 4.9$cent/Wp 30% of cell convertion cost! 12

13 ITRPV Results Materials Modules Costs of module manufacturing are sensitive to all materials (aprox. equal share) improvements are implemented in performance and costs Approaches for performance increase: - Reduction of optical losses i.e. Reflection / Absorption - Reduction of interconnection losses Solutions for performance increase - reduced Glass absorption and Frontside reflexion by AR coatings - improvement of UV performance of encapsulants 13

14 AGENDA Introduction of the 4 th edition of the ITRPV PV learning curve and cost considerations ITRPV 4 rd edition - some results Materials - Processes - Products Summary and Outlook 14

15 ITRPV Results Processes Manufacturing (1) Crystallization: - Using economy of scale requires high throughput approaches accelerated trend to larger ingots Gen 6 dominates high volume casting - higher throughput in mono pulling by increased ingot mass Wafering: - increased troughput by continouse improvement (slurry) New technology roll out (diamond) 15

16 ITRPV Results Processes Manufacturing (2) Cell production: - tools have to get increased throughputs current situation requires - maturing the performance of installed base - focusing on upgrades vs. new invests the gap between front- and back end should be closed in-line and clustered fab concepts are possible Year Front end [wafer/h] (chemical + thermal) Single line back end [wafer/h] (metallization + classification) Improvements result in reduction of relative invest for new cell fabs over the next 16

17 ITRPV Results Processes Manufacturing (3) Module : - throughput of module tools is expected to increase Introducing <150µm cells requires - improved interconnect technology - stress relieving supporting structures 17

18 ITRPV Results Processes Technology ( Cell 1) Recombination losses have to be reduced - in the crystalline Si bulk material - at the front side of the cell - et the back side of the cell AL-BSF not suitable below 200fA/cm² color coding indicates the progress rear side passivation concepts are ramping in mass production new production machines need to become mature improved mc-si casting boosts material performance for processes w/ lower CoO 18

19 ITRPV Results Processes Technology ( Cell 2) Cell front side (n-doped emitters ): - emitter sheet resistance increase is needed reduced FS J0 to below 100 fa/cm² enable contacting by new pasts and/or SE - Reduction of finger width w/o losses in conductivity down to 40µm screen printing improves new techniques for fine line print CoO has to be competitive - Improved alignment accuracy for SE, double printing and new cell concepts 19

20 ITRPV Results Processes Technology (Module) Trend of cell to module power loss according to ITRPV - Improvements in 2013 due to wide introduction of AR glass - new interconnect - improved encapsulation techniques power gain by encapsulation is possible Gap between alkaline and acidic texturing will remain valid 20

21 AGENDA Introduction of the 4 th edition of the ITRPV PV learning curve and cost considerations ITRPV 4 rd edition - some results Materials - Processes - Products Summary and Outlook 21

22 ITRPV Results Products Crystallization Material landscape for c-si is expected to diversify (market shares o/a) Casted mc Si will develop from classic mc- Si HPmc Si mono Si will split n- type will increase share p-type will reduce share share casted / mono is expected shift from 60:40 to 50:50 in 2023 n-type mono material will be used for high eta cell concepts new mc-si products (HPmc-Si)gain market share vs. conventional mc-si casting mono-like material has less share due to non maturation 22

23 ITRPV Results Products Cell / Module (1) Trends for Double sided contact c-si cells Efficiencies of p-and n-type c-si cells will rise - stabilized efficiencies only are considered - shown are cells out of a state of the art mass production line - gap between mono and multi remains valid Trend of output power of 60 cell modules - cell efficiency + module improvements included - trend implies shift to full square Mono - alkalic texturing is assumed for mono/mono-like 23

24 ITRPV Results Products Cell / Module (2) Diversification in c-si cell concepts and Module products is expected Double sided contact cells remain main stream - rear side contact cells up to 35% in bi-facial cell concepts are expected Module size is expected to diversify - 60 cell modules remain main stream - > 20% share for large modules ( 72) - 10% share special sizes for niche markets - frameless modules gain market share (>20% from 2015 onwards) 24

25 ITRPV Results Products PV Systems Considerations of BOS cost trend for PV Systems >100kWp in different reagions BOS cost excluding Module cost - Mounting, wiring, and inverter are most expensive elements - PV system set up is in competition w/ non PV industry i.e. cost reductions compete w/ increasing prices - Special solutions will reduce mounting cost Example: EU 25

26 AGENDA Introduction of the 4 th edition of the ITRPV PV learning curve and cost considerations ITRPV 4 rd edition - some results Materials - Processes - Products Summary and Outlook 26

27 Summary Challenges near term Basic challenge for near term: upgrades vs. new invest Further reduction in process costs for poly-si cell-to-module conversion w/o power loss Througput increase (front-end & back-end) Efficiency increase with existing lines / technologies Ongoing cost reduction Silver reduction / plating technologies 27

28 Summary Challenges mid term / long term Further reduction in process costs for poly-si Wafer thickness reduction Automation & cell-to-module integration new cell concepts vs. Standardizes processes Ongoing cost reduction Silver replacement (printing vs. Plating) Different module types Glass-glass / frameless Efficiency increase as forecasted Picking the right / most promising technology (process) Implementation of new sawing technologies 28

29 Summary ITRPV ITRPV shows: - ways to reach cost reduction of PV generated electricity - Efficiency improvements have to be implemented without huge cost increases - costs per piece have to be reduced continuously in parallel to efficiency increases ITRPV is a common platform for manufacturers, suppliers, and customers Conclusion: - Further reduction of Si-PV manufacturing cost is possible without sacrificing quality and reliability - Increasing cell efficiencies will support the cost reduction Next Steps of ITRPV: - Include more manufactures from Asia and America - Create subgroups w/ focus on high-eta / rear-side concepts - Include equipment and material suppliers to provide solutions - Consider more system trends 29

30 Outlook ITRPV parameter trends considered in different learning scenarios 1) eta constant cost, 2) cost increase, 3) cost reduction + eta gain 06/ / / / / / /2023 Cum. volume shipped (GWp)* Avg. Wp increase - 2% 4% 4% 6% 7% 7% Scenario 1 ($/Wp) ,61 Increased complexity - 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% Scenario 2 ($/Wp) 0, ,83 Cost reduction - 1% 5% 5% 10% 10% 10% Scenario 3 ($/Wp) 0, ,38 Module pricing in June 2012 Module pricing in January 2013 = cost level (EU/US/J 0.8 $/Wp; PRC 0.65 $/Wp)** = below cost Possible and needed cost reductions will meet prices around 2015 Roadmap identifies focus points efficiency gain is needed; cost reduction is mandatory * Yearly shipment volume between 30 GWp and 60 GWp ** S. Mehta, GTM Study, Global PV Module Manufacturers 2013: Competitive Positioning, Consolidation and the China Factor October 15,

31 Roadmap outlook: PV learning continues Efficiency gains and cost reductions per piece have to be combined 31

32 Questions? Stephan Raithel SEMI Europe Director PV Europe Helmholtzstrasse 2-9 D Berlin, Germany Cell: Phone: