Challenges and Opportunities for R&D in the PV Field out of an Industry Perspective

Transcription

1 SOLAR ERA.NET Match Making Event Düsseldorf 24 th of February 2016 Challenges and Opportunities for R&D in the PV Field out of an Industry Perspective Dr. Eric Schneiderlöchner SolarWorld Innovations GmbH

2 Challenges and Opportunities for R&D in the PV Field out of an Industry Perspective Content 1. SolarWorld at a Glance 2. Dominating Market Trends and PV Technologies 3. Challenges & Strengths of the European PV Industry 4. R&D Strategy for the European PV Industry 2

3 SolarWorld is a Global Player in the PV Industry INTERNATIONAL LEADING Arnstadt Largest European & largest US based Solar Manufacturer Salisbury Freiberg Well known, established Solar Brand Grenoble Verona Multiple Awards for highest Product Quality Bonn (headquarters) Tokyo Hillsboro Qatar Singapore R&D Production Sales Cape Town Global production and sales Group shipments: GW Made in Germany (Freiberg, Arnstadt) & in the United States (Hillsboro) Revenue: 763 millions Sales offices in D, UK, France, Italy, USA, South Africa, Singapore, Japan EBITDA: 35 millions Products cover the Si PV Value Chain from Poly Silicon, Crystallization, Wafers, Solar Cells, Modules and Systems EBIT Q4 alone: 8 millions R&D expenses: 29 millions Central R&D Facility for all sites located in Freiberg KEY FIGURES

4 PV market growth potential acc. to the International Energy Agency Percentage of PV in Global Electricity Mix, IEA HighRen Szenario, Technology Roadmap PV 2014 PV Made in Germany, Bad Staffelstein 2015, Neuhaus Starting 2025 IEA prognoses 200 GW/a growth 150 Bil. /a (assuming system /Wp) Conclusion: Stable very large salesmarketfor the PV industry (size: ~10% of 1,4Tril. automobile market in 2012) EU has to participate strongly in this market 4

5 PV Module Production by World Region Today China & Taiwan supply 70% of the world s solar modules Europe s competitiveness is currently under high pressure! (only 5% market share) Danger to make Europe s PV electricity generation dependant from chinese technology imports if this trend continues into the future Graph out of Fraunhofer ISE Photovoltaics Report, Nov

6 China s Challenge for the European PV Industry China is considering PV Energy Generation a future key technology and over the last decade has been striving for industrial, market & technology leadership! China s last 5 year plan period ( ) now has accomplished ambitious goals: 2014 China was largest market with 12,6 GW * In 2015 out of the top 10 module makers 7 are chinese Most manufacturing equipments (crystal to module) are available today Trina Solar lab results on large area: 22,1% on Cz Si and 21% on multi *draft of 13th FYP speaks from 200GW PV installation until 2020! Situation in 2015 for Europe s PV Industry China s R&D budget & research head count significantly increased Big parts of needed equipments and materials will not be sourced in Europe anymore threat for European Equipment and Material Producers New competition on technology leadership has started mid term also European R&D institutions will be affected European manufacturers need new differentiators to convince their customers 6

7 Use the Strengths of the European PV Industry Looking back: Based on solid markets (D, E, I,..) the European Technology Leadership has lead to the development of the market dominating c Si screen print technology : % of global module production has been installed in Europe (EPIA) % of global module production happened within Europe (EPIA) % of all production equipments came from Germany alone (VDMA) Present: Technologies Drivers and the respective Equipments still remain to be developed and supplied from within the EU (selective Emitter, PERC, Al2O3, etc.) EU still has the best research landscape and research clusters for solar technology EU manufacturers are producing at highest automatisation level worldwide Looking Forward: to regain a lasting competitive advantage EU needs to define a reliable market strategy bundle ressources of manufacturers, equipment & material suppliers and R&D institutes work out an aligend technology road map 7

8 Outlook on Crystalline Silicon Technology: SEMI ITRPV 2015 With 90% market share c Si is the driving mass technology in photovoltaics Evolutionary PERC/PERT concepts are replacing Al BSF as the major technology Si based tandem concepts as drop in technologies are expected from 2019 onwards Looking for the new break through but disruptive PV technology will not lead to short or midterm economical successes 8

9 R&D Strategy for the EU PV Industry Proposal Goal: Short Transfer Times Prototype to Production R&D Cooperation according to the life cycle phase model of a product with specific responsibilities Granting of R&D funds per life cycle phase after the Quality Gates have been fullfilled Fast approval of funds within weeks!! Compared to the past bigger parts of the funding money need to be available in the pilot phase AND for reaching the quality gates of QG4 Time to Market is shortened, Cost Predictability is improved Risk is lowered 1. background R&D QG 1 2. proof of concept QG 2 3. prototyping QG 3 4. Pilot Phase (debugging under real life conditions) QG 4 5. production transfer 6. Optimization R&D Institutions Material Producers Equipment Producers Manufacturing Companies 9

10 Focus Areas for EU R&D Funding Proposal Strategic Approach to support European PV Industry Focus on evolutionary approaches and drop in solutions aiming to use existing equipments & technologies Focus on projects that aim for an accelerated technology transfer, preferably lead by the industry Support projects of equipment manufacturers in Europe addressing tool piloting in industrial environments, early failure debugging, copy protection Support projects that develop system solutions to best integrate PV components into future smart grids e.g. smart homes, combining PV with heat pumps, 10

11 Focus Areas for EU R&D Funding Proposal Short & Mid Term R&D Topics to reduce /Wp of c Si PV kerf less wafer technologies accelerated stress tests to certificate solar modules international metrology standards for bifacial modules evolutionary development of p type PERC towards 24% improved cleaning, passivation, emitters passivated contacts new metallization pastes, interconnection, embedding What comes after industrial 24% PERC solar cells Perovskite tandem on Si? (cheap but low efficient) III/V tandem on Si? (high efficient but expensive) solar modules free of heavy metals as Pb, Cd ec. Recycling Solutions or Craddle to Craddle Approaches 11

12 Thank you very much for your attention any questions? 12

13 How a p type PERC Power Roadmap could lookalike P type WR: 25,4% On large area 22% demonstrated in 2015 (Trina Solar & SolarWorld) best in class mass production PERC modules (60 Based on historic 2 3%rel Eta gain 24% cells will be available in 5 8 years The needed improvements are identified and technological work towards 23% has already started Best Demo Modules SW Goal for evolutionary Si PV Best Class Sun Power (IBC) Best Class Panasonic (HIT) Industry standard We need to start to think ahead! What drop in technology solution will bring us beyond the single junction efficiency limit? 13

14 Summary & Conclusion Challenges: China s strategic approach to treat PV as a future key technology is threatening Europe s PV Technology Leadership Long term Europe might even need to ensure its independancy from PV technology imports, Opportunities To strengthen the European PV Sector several measures can be taken Work on PV system solutions to open up new home markets and attract new industry players Focus on the development of evolutionary or drop in technology solutions Aggressively Shorten the time to market of such new technology solutions e.g. by funding support of technology pilots Develop a common technology roadmap to built on 14

15 SolarWorld Innovations GmbH Global R&D Facility Research and Development Center for the overall SolarWorld Group of Companies ~120 Employees, Revenue >20 M /Year Development Activities cover the whole Value Chain (Crystallization to System) Pilot Lines for Wafer, Cell, Module Laboratories for chemical Analytics, Cell Characterization & Module Certification Product Development including Processes and Pilot Equipment Supporting Production in continuous improvement Projects Ensuring the Product Quality and Product Certification Project and IP Management 15

16 PV Production by Technology (w/o concentrating PV) Graph out of Fraunhofer ISE Photovoltaics Report, Nov Crystalline silicon (90%) has been & still is the driving mass technology in photovoltaics Looking for the new break through but disruptive PV technology will not lead to short or midterm economical successes 16