Shale Gas & Tight Oil Economic and Policy Considerations. Northwestern University April 30 May 1, 2013

Transcription

1 Shale Gas & Tight Oil Economic and Policy Considerations Northwestern University April 30 May 1, 2013

2 Congressional Research Service Nonpartisan, analytical, research and reference arm of the Library of Congress Work directly for Members, Committees, and Staff on a confidential basis Goals of confidentiality, responsiveness, timeliness, and objectivity Does not advocate policy CRS-2

3 Contact Information Michael Ratner Specialist in Energy Policy Congressional Research Service 101 Independence Avenue, SE, Washington, DC Office: CRS-3

4 Where are the Resources? Shale gas deposit Northwestern -4

5 High Prices Drive Innovation Rise of Shale Gas Source: EIA U.S. gas prices volatile since 2000 Price peaks above $12/MMBtu in 2005 and 2008 Shale gas pushed price below $2/MMBtu, but currently over $4/MMBtu Will production respond? Northwestern -5

6 Technology Unlocks U.S. Gas Reserves New Technology: Geologic imaging Advanced drill bits and metallurgy Directional drilling Hydraulic fracturing Shale gas deposit Source: U.S. Department of Energy Northwestern -6

7 tcf Shale Gas Growing in Importance A change in policy would change the projection up or down Source: EIA Shale Gas Other Perspective on supply key factor for future Drives LNG exports and manufacturing renaissance Environmental concerns rise with production Potential Gas Committee ups estimate again in 2012 Northwestern -7

8 Domestic Price Impacts a Key Unknown Supply-Demand Balance Increase in demand due to exports or manufacturing (D 1 D 2 ) Same supply (S 1 ) Domestic price may rise (P 1 P 2 ) How much will production rise (Q 1 Q 2 ) Slope of lines is key to price rise Northwestern -8

9 tcf Gas Production Grows Despite Prices Recession hits Source: EIA Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Production rising, but industry assets now shifting away from gas Dec. 2011/12 convergence U.S. becomes #1 global gas producer in 2009 Northwestern -9

10 U.S. Gas and Oil Prices De-coupled Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Prior to 2008, gas and oil prices moved in tandem U.S. gas prices now independent of oil price Price gap is driving wet gas plays (and tight oil) Northwestern -10

11 MMb/d Oil Production Follows Gas Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: EIA 2012 could be the start of things to come More industry assets moving to oil Energy independence really an oil issue Imports down Northwestern -11

12 Percent of Tight Oil and Shale Gas 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: EIA % tight oil % shale gas Shale Gas projected to be 50% of production by 2036 Tight oil production peaks at 39% in 2024/25 Northwestern -12

13 MMb/d Projected U.S. Tight Oil Production Changes in policy could change the projection up or down 1 - Source: EIA Tight Oil Other Tight oil production sparks independence possibility U.S. could become largest oil producer Northwestern -13

14 Continued Dependence on Fossil Fuels Fracking concerns Potential impact on water resources Will LNG exports drive more fracking? Will oil production drive more fracking? New infrastructure required Greenhouse gas issues Natural gas a cleaner fuel than coal Burning gas still produces CO 2 Fugitive methane emissions also bad Cheap gas undercuts renewable energy Northwestern -14

15 Unconventional Oil and Gas: Selected Federal Studies USEPA: Study of the Potential Impacts of Hydraulic fracturing on Drinking Water Resources. Progress report published 12/2012. Final draft report of findings expected in DOE, DOI, EPA: Multi-Agency Collaboration on Unconventional Oil and Gas Research Initiative established under a 2012 MOU. Research plan expected to be available 7/2013. ( DOE: The Secretary of Energy Advisory Board, Shale Gas Production Subcommittee, Second Ninety Day Report, 11/2011 ( In 2011, DOE Secretary charged the Secretary of Energy Advisory Board (SEAB) Natural Gas Subcommittee to make recommendations to improve the safety and environmental performance of natural gas hydraulic fracturing from shale formations. DOE, National Renewable Energy Lab: Natural Gas and the Transformation of the U.S. Energy Sector: Electricity, 11/2012 ( USGS: Shallow Groundwater Quality and Geochemistry in the Fayetteville Shale Gas-Production Area, North-Central Arkansas, Northwestern -15

16 Infrastructure Changes U.S. natural gas and oil infrastructure designed to move supply to demand Supply centers have changed New pipelines and other transportation modes Source: Natural Gas Week Northwestern -16

17 Policy Concerns Natural Gas Oil 28 bills introduced Exports vs. Manufacturing Geopolitics Prices The Economy Trade 99 bills introduced Independence/Security Imports Military posture Environment Hydraulic fracturing Dependency on hydrocarbons Fugitive methane emissions Cheap gas undercuts renewable energy Northwestern -17