Plugging In To Natural Gas Portland, Oregon January 25
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1 Plugging In To Natural Gas Portland, Oregon January 25
2 1914 Willamette Falls Dr., #255 West Linn, OR (503) NWGA Members: Avista Corporation Cascade Natural Gas Co. FortisBC Energy Intermountain Gas Co. NW Natural Puget Sound Energy El Paso Ruby Pipeline Spectra Energy Transmission TransCanada GTN System Williams NW Pipeline
3 Shale Gas: What Is It?
4 New Application of Existing Drilling Techs Horizontal Directional Drilling + Hydraulic Fracturing Horizontal Drilling: First in 1929; really took off in 90s. Average well site just 30% of the size of its 70s counterpart. Accesses 60 times more subsurface area Fewer wells recovering greater reserves create less surface disturbance and generate less waste. Hydraulic fracturing: More than 60 years old. More than 1,000,000 wells safely fracked.
5 Conventional vs. Horizontal Drilling Traditional Wells Horizontal Drilling
6 Smaller footprint, greater access Traditional Wells Horizontal Drilling
7 Issues with Hd Hydraulic Fracturing Drinking Water Key is effectively sealing (casing) the well bore Well construction subject to state/local oversight Reputation is only as good as the weakest player
8 Issues with Hydraulic Fracturing Water Use
9 Issues with Hydraulic Fracturing Produced d Water Handled differently at different shale plays; even at different wells within a play. Recycling (e.g. Talisman): In Marcellus, about 80% comes back as produced water; in BC, it s only 20%. When no longer useable: water is treated and disposed of Disposal: Reinjection (regulated under the federal SDWA) Surface impoundments (regulated by state statutes) Treatment and disposal (regulated by the federal CWA)
10 Proven US Natural Gas Reserves (source: US EIA) Tcf
11 US Natural Gas Production Forecast (source: EIA AEO 2012) Projections Tcf
12 US Shale Gas Production (source: Navigant Consulting) illion Cubic Fe eet per day B est
13 Productivity Dramatically Improved 1st Quarter st Quarter rd Quarter 2010 Source: Southwestern Energy Financials Southwest Energy Fayetteville Shale +341% 80,930-45% % , % 4, % 2,439 1,006 18,360 +8% $2.8 $2.6 Time To Drill Wells Per Yr Average 30 Day Ave. Init Prod Drill & (Days) Per Rig Lateral Length (Feet) Prod Rate (Mcf/d) Additions Per Rig Per Yr (Mcf/d) Complete Costs ($MM)
14 $14 $13 $12 $11 $10 $9 $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $0 Price Effect (Source: EIA Monthly NatGas Report; EIA Short Term Energy Outlook; NYMEX) Henry Hub Spot Price EIA Gas Forecast (01/10/12 STEO) NYMEX Gas (01/23/12) Henry Hub Spot: $2.25 on 01/23/12 US$ per Million BTU Jan 2008 Apr 2008 Jul 2008 Oct 2008 Jan 2009 Apr 2009 Jul 2009 Oct 2009 Jan 2010 Apr 2010 Jul 2010 Oct 2010 Jan 2011 Apr 2011 Jul 2011 Oct 2011 Jan 2012 Apr 2012 Jul 2012 Oct 2012 Jan 2013 Apr 2013 Jul 2013 Oct 2013 Jan 2014 Apr 2014 Jul 2014 Oct 2014 Jan 2015 Apr 2015 Jul 2015 Oct 2015
15 Recent Gas Demand 1,000 PNW Gas Deliveries (source: US EIA, StatCan) Residential Commercial Industrial Generation Power Consumption Million Dth
16 Base Case Forecast Growth: 09%per 0.9% year on Dth Millio Industrial Residential Generation Commercial Hi Gen
17 Demand Composition Power 3% Ind 51% Res 26% Comm 20%
18 A Wild Card: Generation Northwest Power Conservation Council 6 th Power Plan
19 Market & Policy Di Drives Generation Builds Capabili ity (MWa) Pacific Northwest Generating Additions & Retirements (Capability) Wind Solar Petroleum Natural gas Hydro Geothermal Coal Biomass October, 2011 Northwest Power and Conservation Council
20 Phasing out existing Resources
21 Phasing in new variable resources
22 2009 Energy egyby Source 2009 Capability 2009 Actual 18,000 16,000 14,000 88% MWa 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 74% 4,000 42% 2, % 79% Hydro Coal Nat Gas Nuke Wind Northwest Power and Conservation Council October, 2011
23 Peak Capacity I 5 Corridor I-5 Total Firm Peak Day Supply/Demand Balance 6 Low Base High Pipeline Underground Storage Peak LNG 5 Million Dth h/day Year (Nov-Oct)
24 Capacity Projects Pipelines Southern Crossing Expansion Palomar Sunstone Blue Bridge (reconfigured) Ruby Pacific Connector Pacific Trail Oregon LNG LNG Terminals Kitimat LNG (export) Bradwood Landing Oregon LNG Jordan Cove LNG Storage Facilities Mist Jackson Prairie Kitimat LNG Oregon LNG Jordan Cove LNG Bradwood Landing LNG 24
25 1914 Willamette Falls Dr., #255 West Linn, OR (503) NWGA Members: Avista Corporation Cascade Natural Gas Co. FortisBC Energy Intermountain Gas Co. NW Natural Puget Sound Energy El Paso Ruby Pipeline Spectra Energy Transmission TransCanada GTN System Williams NW Pipeline
NWGA Members: 1914 Willamette Falls Dr., #255 West Linn, OR (503) Avista Corporation. Cascade Natural Gas Co.
1914 Willamette Falls Dr., #255 West Linn, OR 97068 (503) 344-6637 www.nwga.org NWGA Members: Avista Corporation Cascade Natural Gas Co. FortisBC Energy Intermountain Gas Co. NW Natural Puget Sound Energy
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