What are vulnerability assessments? What is the CCVATCH?

Transcription

1 What are vulnerability assessments? What is the CCVATCH?

2 What are the Components of Vulnerability?* Exposure Sensitivity The change in climate the habitat is likely to experience How the habitat is likely to be affected by climate exposure. Potential Impact Adaptive Capacity The potential to ameliorate the effects of exposure or sensitivity Vulnerability *Scanning the Conservation Horizon, Glick et. al The degree to which the habitat is susceptible to adverse effects of climate change.

3 How is a VA Used? Species Habitats Ecosystems Sensitivity Exposure Adaptive Capacity 1. Identify Conservation Targets 2. Assess Vulnerability to Climate Change 4. Implement Management Options 3. Identify Management Options Changes in Policy Changes in Practice Institutional Changes Reduce Sensitivity Reduce Exposure Increase Adaptive Capacity

4 How are VA s Being Created? Spatial/Statistical Analysis Predictive Modeling GIS Analysis Worksheet Tools Expert Elicitation

5 What are some Examples of VA Tools? The Northeast Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies Regional Habitat Vulnerability Model (NEAFWA) Developed for north eastern forest habitats Has a (self reported) certainty score Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Shorebird Habitat: Manomet Center for Conservation Science and U.S. F.W.S Based on NWI habitats Requires SLAMM and GIS Unwieldy The NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index Species based Calculates confidence using a Monte Carlo simulation The NatureServe Habitat Climate Change Vulnerability Index approach

6 INTRODUCING THE CCVATCH Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool for Coastal Habitats

7 What is the CCVATCH concept? Climate Effects HABITAT 0

8 What is the CCVATCH concept? Climate Effects HABITAT 0 The CCVATCH assesses the potential for climate effects to directly affect habitats and interact with habitat stressors and adaptive capacity, to affect the habitat s function and ability to persist.

9 Some Definitions Habitat NERR Habitat Classification (being X to NOAA CMECS) USGS National Land Cover Data

10 Some Definitions Climate Effects (Exposure) A Few Potential Variables from Downscaled Models Precipitation Absolute or % Change Mean Monthly Temperature Moisture Deficit/Surplus PET (Potential Evapotranspiration) AET/PET (ratio) SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) RAI (Rainfall Anomaly Index) Days with Tmax Above Days with Tmin Below Days with Precip Above Longest Run with Tmax Above Longest Run with Precip Below Growing Degree Days Heating Degree Days Cooling Degree Days Growing Season Length Considered in CCVATCH CO 2 Temperature Precipitation change Sea level change Storm frequency/intensity increase

11 Some Definitions (non-climate) Stressors A Few Potential Variables Human-induced habitat alteration Invasive alien species Harvesting/accidental mortality Pollution-Chemical, Biological, Pathogens Nutrient loading Natural disasters/phenomena Sedimentation/Erosion Marine Debris Turbidity Noise Groundwater level fluctuation ph change Poor air quality Reduced tidal circulation Subsidence Considered in CCVATCH Invasive Species Nutrients Sedimentation/Erosion Biological Contaminants (HABs) Chemical Contaminants

12 Some Definitions Adaptive Capacity inherent traits or external factors that allows a habitat to adjust to a changing climate Degree of fragmentation Barriers to migration Recovery/regeneration ability Diversity of functional groups Management actions possible Institutional adaptive capacity Human responses

13 What Does the CCVATCH Look Like? Excel Spreadsheet Numerical scores for sensitivity are entered for each climate X stressor for each habitat Adaptive capacity scores are entered for each habitat Certainty scores are given for each score entered A total sensitivity score is calculated for each habitat A matrix combines the sensitivity and adaptive capacity scores to create the vulnerability score

14 What Does the CCVATCH Look Like? Guidance Document Background on impacts of stressors on habitats Review of research on each climate X stressor interaction List of literature, web, other resources Assessment questions Scoring examples

15 How is the CCVATCH Used? Guidance and assessment questions discussed by user (group) Translation to numeric scores in spreadsheet Vulnerability Score calculation in spreadsheet Score review to determine potential management actions

16 How Complex is it to Use? Spatial/Statistical Analysis Predictive Modeling GIS Analysis Worksheet Tools Expert Elicitation

17 What are the assessment questions? Example: Increase in Temperature X Invasive Species Is the spread/extent/vigor of an invasive species currently limited by temperature extremes (e.g. frost) that are predicted to change to be within the tolerance limits of the species? Is the distribution of an invasive currently limited by a natural control (e.g. herbivory) that will be affected by a change in temperature? Temperature Predicted changes in temperature will not increase the invasive species threat Predicted change will limit the growth/spread of a current invasive species At least one invasive species is predicted to become more invasive due to increased growth/vigor due to change in temperature At least one invasive species is predicted to become more invasive and a foundation species is predicted to become more susceptible or less competitive An invasive that will completely alter the habitat structure is predicted to become more invasive due to increased vigor, loss of temperature control, or loss of competitive native species

18 What are the assessment questions? Example: Increase in Temperature X Invasive Species Is the habitat currently nutrient limited so that an increase in decomposition rates or soil mineralization due to higher temperatures would change structural composition of the habitat? Would a current nutrient enrichment problem be worsened by a lengthening in the growing season? Is the habitat sensitive to small changes in nutrient input or decomposition rates? The predicted change in temperature may: Have no effect on the Alter the Alter the composition decomposition rates composition of the and structure of the or O 2 saturation habitat by increasing habitat levels nutrient availability or decreasing O 2 Increase nutrient availability from decomposition and will benefit the habitat A small change to decomposition rates or nutrient availability would eliminate the habitat

19 How does this compare to other tools? Tool Scope Structure Exposure Scoring CCVATCH Habitats Excel General climate knowledge Nature Serve CCVI Species Excel Input downscaled predictions NS HCCVI Habitats Methodology Incorporated into modeling NEAFWA NE Habitats Excel User assigns number based on guidance questions User selects from given options Model outputs User assigns number based on guidance

20 How does this compare to other tools? Other kinds of tools for vulnerability assessment process: Coastal-Marine Ecosystem-Based Management Tools Network Tools for Coastal Climate Adaptation Planning: A guide for selecting tools to assist with ecosystem-based climate planning. NatureServe. Arlington, Va.

21 Can other tools be incorporated? Guidance and assessment questions discussed by user (group) Translation to numeric scores in spreadsheet Vulnerability Score calculation in spreadsheet Score review to determine potential management actions SLAMM NSPECT Local models SLR Viewer CanVis InVest

22 What have we done? Climate Effects 1. Created General Structure Concept HABITAT 0 2. Collected initial information for Guidance Document Chemical and Biological Contamination sections need most work 3. Began developing assessment questions and example scoring 4. Developed spreadsheet and scoring system