Elisha Persaud Dr. Jana Levison School of Engineering, University of Guelph Scott MacRitchie Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change

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1 Elisha Persaud Dr. Jana Levison School of Engineering, University of Guelph Scott MacRitchie Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change

2 Outline Background Case Study of Integrated Monitoring What Stands to be Gained? Future Work 2

3 Watershed Processes External and internal factors controlling watershed behaviour Interdependency of water cycle components Topography Evaporation Transpiration Land Use Soil Moisture Precipitation Runoff Geology River Stage and Discharge Temperature Water Table Position & Groundwater Recharge Infiltration 3

4 Changing Climate Conditions Uncertainty in future climate projections Potential water cycle modifications as a result of climate change Precipitation Temperature??? How do we assess the potential impacts of climate change? 4

5 Integrated Water Cycle Management Understanding the system in question Function of available data Ideal scenario long term integrated monitoring data Assess temporal trends Multi-parameter suite of water and climate related data *Characterization of groundwatersurface water interactions *Measurement of less commonly monitored variables 5

6 Case Study of Integrated Monitoring Upper Parkhill Watershed o Identified as vulnerable to the impacts of climate change Upper Parkhill Watershed: Agricultural Till moraines Silty loam and clay loam soils Bedrock aquifer most common source of drinking water LAKE HURON LAKE ERIE LAKE ONTARIO Parkhill Creek Research Station 6

7 Project Objectives and Scope Increase current understanding of climate change impacts on the water cycle through use of integrated monitoring and modelling 1. Use existing and newly collected data to investigate the role of groundwater discharge to Parkhill Creek and relationship between water cycle components 2. Develop a conceptual model that will be used to investigate impacts of climate change 7

8 Parkhill Creek Research Station Instruments added in spring of 2012 to existing WSC stream flow monitoring station Sensor data transmitted through GOES Satellite to MNRF uploaded to online database 8

9 Parkhill Creek Research Station Climate station: Snow depth and temperature profile, wind speed and direction, humidity, air temperature, barometric pressure, rain gauge, solar radiation Soil moisture probes at 5cm, 20cm and 50cm depth Shallow (6.7m) and deep (15.9m) groundwater wells with continuous level data collection Continuous surface water quality sensors (ex. turbidity, conductivity, ph) 9

10 Parkhill Creek Research Station (Illustration provided by the Ausable Bayfield Conservation Authority) 10

11 Continuous Data Collection 11

12 Supplemental Field Data Subsurface and hydraulic characterization Slug testing Pedological study Soil analysis Installation of stream bank piezometers Examine water table fluctuations at the stream interface 12

13 Supplemental Field Data Evapotranspiration Calculated (Penman Monteith) vs. Measured ET r Incorporation of Climate Station Parameters in Calculated ET r o Less parameter estimation o Data pulled from a comprehensive, centralized source ETgage 13

14 Supplemental Field Data Sampling Program Focus on groundwater tracers Groundwater Surface Water Precipitation Stable Isotopes (δ 2 H and δ 18 O) 222 Rn 222 Rn Stable Isotopes (δ 2 H and δ 18 O) Stable Isotopes (δ 2 H and δ 18 O) 3 H/ 3 He 3 H/ 3 He o Groundwater dating 222 Rn o GW discharging to SW o Radioactive decay of uranium and radium in aquifer materials δ 2 H and δ 18 O o Water partitioning as evidenced by fractionation 15

15 Supplemental Field Data Stable Isotopes Local Evaporative Line 15

16 Supplemental Field Data 222 Radon & Tritium/Helium 222 Radon Groundwater Dating ~2 years old for shallow well (6.7 mbgs) ~4 years old for deep well (15.9 mbgs) 16

17 Supplemental Field Data Discrete EC Surveys Point measurements throughout the Upper Parkhill Watershed Both main channel + drains/tributaries sampled 17

18 Supplemental Field Data Discrete Radon Survey Below Detection Limit Main Channel Tributaries/Drains 19

19 Supplemental Field Data Discrete EC and Radon Surveys Groundwater contributions from tributaries? Furthest Upstream Sampling Location (km) Parkhill Creek Research Station 19

20 Supplemental Field Data Continuous Radon Survey In-stream radon measurements upstream and downstream of the Parkhill Creek Research Station Concentration averaged over length covered during 15 min intervals Ranged between 0.36 Bq/l to 0.16 Bq/l Research Station 20

21 Supplemental Field Data Continuous Radon Survey In-stream radon measurements upstream and downstream of the Parkhill Creek Research Station Concentration averaged over length covered during 15 min intervals Ranged between 0.36 Bq/l to 0.16 Bq/l Research Station 21

22 What Stands to be Gained? Determining appropriate scales of study Scaling relationships Identifying data gaps Refinement of climate change indicators Water balance calculations?? 22

23 Future Work Now What? **Conceptual model development** Identify and examine surface water-groundwater interactions throughout the watershed Assess historical trends in water cycle components Integrated Numerical Model 23

24 Future Work Simulate water balance in Upper Parkhill Watershed Integrated Numerical Model (HydroGeoSphere) Application of Projected Climate Scenarios Assess vulnerability of water balance Assess implications of potential changes to the water cycle Climate Change Adaptation and Planning 24

25 Acknowledgements University of Guelph Sarah Rixon Rebecca Beutel Dr. Andy Binns Steve Mitchell Technical Support University of Western Ontario Dr. Clare Robinson Hayley Wallace Environmental Isotopes lab University of Waterloo Geotop Radon Laboratory Université du Québec à Montréal A.E. Lalonde AMS Laboratory University of Ottawa Principal Investigators: Dr. Jana Levison (U of G) Scott MacRitchie (MOECC) Steering Committee Members Alec Scott (ABCA) Dr. Beth Parker (U of G) Davin Heinbuck (ABCA) Dr. Ed Sudicky (UW and Aquanty Inc.) Dr. Pradeep Goel (MOECC) 25

26 Questions? Contact: 26