Energy & Sustainability. Lecture 15: Fossil Fuels Oil and Gas March 3, 2009

Transcription

1 Energy & Sustainability Lecture 15: Fossil Fuels Oil and Gas March 3, 2009

2 Intro: Sources & Impact Where do we get our energy from? A: Fossil Fuel (78%) Features : 1. Non renewable 2. Uneven distributed

3 Intro: Sources & Impact Oil wells on fire in Kuwait during the Gulf War

4 Intro: Sources & Impact Tankers block the entrance to a UK refinery in Sep 00, to protest against high fuel prices

5 Intro: Sources & Impact A fire on a gas rig in the North Sea in 1988 killed 167 people

6 Intro: Sources & Impact Oil spillage from an Exxon tanker in 1989 contaminated 1300 mi of beaches in Alaska. The estimated cost of cleanup was $3 billion

7 Intro: Sources & Impact Rising sea levels due to climate change could overwhelm some low lying nations Tuvalu: a group of 9 coral atolls in the Pacific

8 Intro: Sources & Impact Rising temperatures have caused significant melting of ice around the North Pole

9 Introduction fossil provide energy related services significant environmental & social impacts low efficiency (for delivery)

10 Sources & Sustainability annual energy consumption Oil Natural Gas Wood Coal

11 Sources & Sustainability per capita consumption

12 Sources & Sustainability 1. Fossil Fuels highly concentrated easy to distribute - non renewable - emissions - health & safety issues

13 Coal Sources & Sustainability

14 Oil Sources & Sustainability

15 Natural Gas Sources & Sustainability

16 Oil Most scientists agree that oil comes from creatures the size of a pinhead. These one celled creatures, known as diatoms, aren't really plants, but share one very important characteristic with them they take light from the sun and convert it into energy Diatoms float in the top few meters of the oceans (and lakes which is part of the reason why not ALL oil comes from ocean deposits!) and also happen to be a major source of food for many forms of ocean swimmers.

17 Two types Plankton Phytoplankton: Plants of the Sea Zooplankton: Sea Animals Plankton either float passively in the water, or possess such limited powers of swimming that they are carried from place to place by the currents.

18 Plankton range in size from tiny microbes, which are invisible to the naked eye, to jellyfish meters long. Apart from bacteria, planktonic organisms are the most abundant life form on earth They are a critical part of the carbon energy chain The total amount of carbon in the ocean is about 50 times greater than the amount in the atmosphere, and is exchanged with the atmosphere on a timescale of several hundred years. At least 1/2 of the oxygen we breathe comes from the photosynthesis of marine plants.

19 GigaTons of Carbon/yr

20 Nutrient traps: the origin of fossilfuel deposits

21 Oil Oil is formed from the preserved remains of prehistoric plankton (diatoms) and algae which have been settled to the sea (or lake) bottom in large quantities in water depleted of oxygen. Terrestrial plants, on the other hand, tend to form coal. Over geological time this organic matter, mixed with mud, is buried under heavy layers of sediment. The resulting high levels of heat and pressure cause the organic matter to chemically change, first into a waxy material known as kerogen which is found in various oil shales around the world, then with more heat into liquid and gaseous hydrocarbons >Oil and Natural Gas

22 Depending on the balance of fresh water versus evaporation this can change with time and reverse providing different layers This is why oil is often found just off shore or in regions that used to be water covered

23 Source Rock Oil comes from rocks (source rocks) not big caverns There is "oil window" which is the temperature range that oil forms in below the minimum temperature oil remains trapped in the form of kerogen, and above the maximum temperature the oil is converted to natural gas This corresponds to a certain depth in the earth

24 Three conditions must be present for oil reservoirs to form: a source rock rich in organic material buried deep enough for subterranean heat to cook it into oil; a porous and permeable reservoir rock for it to accumulate in; a cap rock (seal) or other mechanism that prevents it from escaping to the surface.

25 The vast majority of oil that has been produced by the earth has long ago escaped to the surface and been biodegraded by oil eating bacteria. Oil companies are looking for the small fraction that has been trapped by this rare combination of circumstances. Oil sands are reservoirs of partially biodegraded oil still in the process of escaping, but contain so much migrating oil that, although most of it has escaped, vast amounts are still present more than can be found in conventional oil reservoirs. On the other hand, oil shales are source rocks that have never been buried deep enough to convert their trapped kerogen into oil.

26 Fossil fuel availabilty

27 Which country has the largest oil reserves? Iran Iraq Saudi Arabia Canada Venezuela

28 Which country has the second largest oil reserves? Iran Iraq Saudi Arabia Canada Venezuela

29 Which country has the second largest oil reserves? Iran Iraq Saudi Arabia Canada Venezuela

30 What fraction of the known Oil reserve is in Saudi Arabia? 1. 1% 2. 5% 3. 10% 4. 20% 5. 30% 6. 40%

31 What fraction of the known Oil reserve is in Saudi Arabia? 1. 1% 2. 5% 3. 10% 4. 20% 5. 30% 6. 40%

32 Proven world oil reserves in John Wiley and Sons Publishers

33 * *Over 95% of these reserves are oil sands deposits in Alberta

34 Major trade routes for the world s oil, emphasizing the countries that use Middle Eastern oil John Wiley and Sons Publishers

35 Gasoline Prices

36 How much would raising gas prices $1/gallon cost the average US family? 1. $500/yr 2. $1000/yr 3. $1500/yr 4. $2000/yr 5. $2500/yr

37 Cost to Average Consumer Assume Driver goes 12,000 miles/year Car gets 24mi/gallon 500 gallons/year Each $1/gallon cost $500/year/car

38 Cost to Average Consumer If you have 2 drivers per family $1,000 year

39 Cost to Average Consumer Taxes are NOT a large percentage of the cost Now around 13% $0.45/gallon O

40 Taxes for 1 gal of gasoline in U.S. dollars equivalent for selected countries, John Wiley and Sons Publishers

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42 Improvements Energy Services & Efficiency Improvements 1. Energy Efficiency Improvements 1. Demand side improvements Transport sector» motor vehicles» rail» air» shipping» non motorized

43 Natural Gas Since the late 1990s, natural gas has been the fuel of choice for the majority of new generating units, resulting in a 99.0 percent increase in natural gas fired capacity since The construction of natural gas plants began increasing in 1999, peaked during 2002 and 2003, but has since declined considerably. In 2006, natural gas fired generating capacity represented 388,294 MW or 39.4 percent of total net summer generating capacity. Although new natural gas fired combined cycle plants produce electricity more efficiently than older fossilfueled plants, high natural gas prices can work against full utilization of these plants if such prices adversely affect economic dispatch

44 Peak Capacity (Summer)

45 CCGT Energy Services & Efficiency Improvements Combined Cycle Gas Turbine ~ 50% efficiency more climate friendly

46 Marion King Hubbert (October 5, 1903 October 11, 1989) was a geoscientist who worked at the Shell research lab in Houston, Texas Hubbert

47 Hubbert s peak

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49 World Oil

50 Hirsch Report of DoE 2005 World oil peaking is going to happen, and will likely be abrupt. Oil peaking will adversely affect global economies, particularly those most dependent on oil. Oil peaking presents a unique challenge ( it will be abrupt and revolutionary ). The problem is liquid fuels (growth in demand mainly from transportation sector).

51 Mitigation efforts will require substantial time. 20 years is required to transition without substantial impacts A 10 year rush transition with moderate impacts is possible with extraordinary efforts from governments, industry, and consumers Late initiation of mitigation may result in severe consequences. Both supply and demand will require attention. It is a matter of risk management (mitigating action must come before the peak). Government intervention will be required. Economic upheaval is not inevitable ( given enough lead time, the problems are soluble with existing technologies. ) More information is needed to more precisely determine the peak timeframe.