ESA-4. Primary Energy Substitution. World Energy Supply (in Gtoe) Determinants 2: Supply. Keywan Riahi World population (billion)

Transcription

1 ESA-4 Determinants 2: Supply Keywan Riahi World Energy Supply (in Gtoe) World population (billion) Gtoe World primary energy use (Gtoe) Nuclear Hydro Gas Oil (incl. feedstocks) Coal Commercial aviation Trad. renewables Steam engine Electric motor Gasoline engine Vacuum tube Television Nuclear energy Microchip Primary Energy Substitution 8 Coal Fraction (%) 6 4 Wood Oil Gas Nuclear 1

2 Price of Oil and Coal Source: Group Planning SHELL, Capacity Cost of Troll Field (North Sea) Source: Group Planning SHELL, High prices beget high costs; low prices beget low costs (M. Adelmann) Oil Price Projections by DOE BGR,

3 Crude Oil Prices (History & IIASA-WEC Scenarios) 1859: 292 $/bbl $/bbl (current and constant US$2) Shadow prices Volatility zone Average costs Fossil Era on Geological Time Scale kwh/yr) Time before and after present ( 3 years) Renewable Energy Resource Base in EJ ( 18 J) per year Resource Current Technical Theoretical use a potential potential Hydropower Biomass energy 5 >276 2,9 Solar energy 2 >1,575 3,9, Wind energy , Geothermal energy.6 5, 14,, Ocean energy ~ n.e. 7,4 Total ~7 >7,6 >144,, n.e. Not estimated a. The electricity part of current use is converted to primary energy with a factor of.385 (subst.equivalent).. 3

4 Distribution of proved (oil) reserves 1985, 1995, 25 BP 26 Proved oil reserves at end 25 BP 26 Oil reserves-to-production (R/P) ratios BP 26 4

5 Major oil trade movements BP 26 Main Oil Reserves in the World Regional Distribution of Global Oil Production and Consumption, 22 Source: of Energy Resources, WEC 24 5

6 Production rate (9 bbls/yr) The Peak of Oil Hypothesis Source: Kjell Aleklett 25 Hubbert Oil Production Curve percent (64 yrs) 25 x 9 bbls 8 percent (58 yrs) 4 Q =2x 9 bbls 3 Q =135 x 9 bbls 2 18 x 9 bbls 382 x 9 bbls 784 x 9 bbls Recurring Perception of Scarcity the data at hand in regard to the gas still available underground make it probable that the annual output will never be very much more than it was during the period R.S. McBride and E.G. Sievers (USGS), Mineral Resources of the United States, 1921, p.34. US gas production: 22 Mtoe in 192 Mtoe in

7 Global Oil Requirements Perspectives MBDOE 25 2 World Oil and Gas Demand 15 Required New Production 5 Existing Industry Production Producing Fields Decline ~ 4-8% per year SCHOELLER-BLECKMANN Energy Systems OILFIELD Analysis EQUIPMENT AG Typical Oil Deposit Formations Original Oil in Place: 3 % 7 % recoverable Not recoverable at current prices and with current technologies 1 m 3 Oil deposit : 75 % Sandstone, % Water, 15 % Oil. Economically recoverable: ca. 5 % i.e.: 2/3 of oil in place are not recoverable economically today! SCHOELLER-BLECKMANN Energy Systems OILFIELD Analysis EQUIPMENT AG Source: Grohmann, 25 New Technologies Increase Reserves 3D-Seismics Source: Grohmann, 25 Micro Drilling SCHOELLER-BLECKMANN OILFIELD EQUIPMENT AG 7

8 Distribution of proved (natural gas) reserves 1985, 1995, 25 BP 26 Proved natural gas reserves at end 25 BP 26 Natural gas reserves-to-production (R/P) ratios BP 26 8

9 Regional Distribution of Global Gas Production and Consumption, 22 Source: of Energy Resources, WEC 24 Proved coal reserves at end 25 BP 26 Coal production - Coal consumption BP 26 9

10 22 nd WGC Tokyo 23 fossil fuel resources Fossil fuel resources are not a constraint on future energy use. The conventional resource base is small. The total resource base conventional plus unconventional gas and oil is HUGE Source: Jae Edmonds Pacific Northwest The Joint Global Change National Laboratory Research Institute 2 McKelvey Diagram Resource Classification: The McKelvey Box Increasing degree of economic feasibility Economic Subeconomic Not economic Demonstrated Measured Identified Reserves Indicated Reserves Inferred Hypothetical Resources Unconventional and low-grade occurrences Undiscovered Resources Probability range (or) Speculative Increasing degree of geological assurance Recoverable Conventional Crude Oil Reserves and Cumulative Production Gtoe 2 15 Remaining reserves/ annual production Total 6 Remaining reserves 5 4 Years 3 5 Cumulative consumption Nakicenovic et al., 1988; BGR, 1988

11 Estimates of ultimately recoverable Conventional Oil a Source: BGR, Recoverable Conventional Natural Gas Reserves and Cumulative Production Gtoe 2 15 Remaining reserves/ annual production 6 Total 5 4 Remaining reserves 3 Years 2 5 Cumulative consumption Nakicenovic et al., 1988; BGR, 1988 Conventional Gas: Estimates of ultimately recoverable Resources Source: BGR,

12 Mineral Changing Mineral Reserves (Cohen, 1995) Reserves 195 Production Reserves 198 Copper Iron 19, 11,4 93,466 Aluminum 1,4 1,346 5,2 Lead USGS Estimates of ultimately recoverable Reserves in 1987 and 22 Data (Source: Masters, 1987; BP, 22) 1987 USGS estimates Reserves Undiscovered 95% probability Resources 5% probability Reserves BP 22 Saudi Arabia Kuwait Oman 5 <1 4 5 Middle East Carbon Reservoirs Atmosphere 8 GtC (24) Biomass ~5 GtC N. Gas Oil ~26 GtC ~27 GtgC Soils ~1,5 GtC Coal 5, to 8, GtC Unconventional Fossil Fuels 15, to 4, GtC 14 12

13 Hydrocarbon Reserves and Resources in ZJ ( 21 J) Consumption Reserves Resources Resource Additional base Occurrences Oil Conventional Unconventional Gas Conventional Unconventional Coal Total Source: Nakicenovic et al., 1996; Nakicenovic, Grübler and McDonald, 1998; WEC, 1998; Masters et al., 1994; Rogner et al., 2 Hydrocarbon Reserves and Resources in GtC ( 9 tc) Consumption Reserves Resources Resource Additional base Occurrences Oil Conventional Unconventional Gas Conventional Unconventional Coal Total Source: Nakicenovic et al., 1996; Nakicenovic, Grübler and McDonald, 1998; WEC, 1998; Masters et al., 1994; Rogner et al., 2 Methane hydrate 13

14 Alternative Sources of Hydrocarbons Methane Hydrates SCHOELLER-BLECKMANN OILFIELD EQUIPMENT AG Source: Grohmann, 25 Unconventional Hydrocarbons Tarsands: Alberta Opencast SAG-D process Venezuela Potential SAG-D use Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage Source: Grohmann, 25 Hydrocarbon Supply Perspectives SCHOELLER-BLECKMANN OILFIELD EQUIPMENT AG Source: Grohmann, 25 14

15 Jan- Jul- Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-2 Jul-2 Jan-3 Jul-3 Jan-4 Jul-4 Jan-5 Jul-5 Jan-6 Jul-6 Jan-7 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan- Jul- Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 US$ per million BTU The role of technology & innovation gas shale US Shale is the most abundant sedimentary rock on Earth No two shale deposits are created equal Slide 43 Source: Schlumberger, 211 Average weekly gas prices by major region RF-FRG EU-Imp Henri Hub LNG Asia-Pacific 4 2 Sources: Adapted from EIA (215), World Bank (215), Index Mundi (215) Only one third of sedimentary basins has been searched for oil with modern techniques Far more exploration wells (each yellow dot represents 2,) have been drilled in the U.S. than in any other country. Source: Maugeri, 29 15

16 Something Wrong with Theory? Historical success rate in US oil/gas drilling: Not better than with random drilling Depletion of fields postponed: Refill from below: Jean Whelan= state of art Deep gas hypothesis: Tommy Gold=highly controversial Gas tracers (C-14): Abiogenic gas=yes, but minor curiosity? Gas hydrates: How to explain quantities and occurrence (e.g. in deep sea bottom)? Methane abundance in extraterrestrial environments: Relevance for planet Earth? Why is Neptune s Atmosphere Blue? (Methane=Natural Gas) Renewable Energy Resource Base in EJ ( 18 J) per year Resource Current Technical Theoretical use a potential potential Hydropower Biomass energy 5 >276 2,9 Solar energy 2 >1,575 3,9, Wind energy , Geothermal energy.6 5, 14,, Ocean energy ~ n.e. 7,4 Total ~7 >7,6 >144,, n.e. Not estimated a. The electricity part of current use is converted to primary energy with a factor of.385 (subst.equivalent).. 16

17 Producer price $(1996)/bbl Brazil - Ethanol Learning Curve: Hold your breath! 2 15 Producer price 5 Cumulative subsidy 1billion $ Oil price 3 % cost reduction for each doubling of cum. production Regression.6 billion $.3 billion $? Data: Goldenberg, Cumulative production 6 bbl 17