Compatibility of the SE4ALL Energy Efficiency Objective with Renewable Energy, Energy Access, and Climate Mitigation Targets

Transcription

1 Compatibility of the SE4ALL Energy Efficiency Objective with Renewable Energy, Energy Access, and Climate Mitigation Targets Jay Gregg 1, Olexandr Balyk 1, Ola Solér 1, Simone La Greca 1, Cristian Hernán Cabrera Pérez 1, Tom Kober 2 1 Systems Analysis, Technical University of Denmark 2 Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands jsgr@dtu.dk

2 Motivation Sustainable Energy for All (SE4ALL) o Double energy efficiency (reduce global energy intensity of GDP by half) o Double global renewable energy share (18 to 36%) o Transition away from traditional biomass and ensure electricity access to everyone o by 2030 Reduce CO 2 emissions, prevent >2 C warming GDP = Gross Domestic Product

3 Method Current: -Carbon price -Renewable Energy Profile -Energy efficiency trends -Traditional biomass use -Technology profiles ETSAP-TIAM ETSAP-TIAM Reference Scenario Alternative Scenario Changes in: Renewable Energy Profile Energy Consumption, GHG Emissions Costs -Renewable Energy Targets for Energy Intensity Targets for Increased Energy Access & Phase-out Traditional Biomass Assessment of Regional Potentials Sector & Subsector Potentials

4 Scenarios Scenario Regional EIIR Global EIIR 1.3% Global EIIR 2.6% Regional RE IRENA Ref Regional RE IRENA REMap Global RE Doubling SE4ALL Energy Access i. Base ii. RefRegional fixed fixed iii. RefGlobal fixed fixed iv. RE fixed fixed v. EE fixed fixed vi. EE&RE fixed fixed vii. EE&RE&EA fixed fixed included viii. EEfree&REflex min ix. EEflex&REfree min x. EEflex&REflex min min xi. EEflex&REflex&EA min min included EIIR = Energy Intensity Improvement Rate IRENA = International Renewable Energy Agency RE = Renewable Energy SE4ALL = United Nations Sustainable Energy for All Initiative

5 Scenario Details Ref: o -1.3% CAGR in Primary Energy Intensity of GDP o RE IRENA reference (IRENA, 2016) EE: o -2.6% CAGR in Energy Intensity RE: o IRENA REmap 2030 Realistic Potential (IRENA, 2016) o SE4ALL RE doubling: 36% global RE share of Final Energy (including traditional biomass) EA: o Complete phase out of traditional biomass & at least 750 kwh/year/capita electricity consumption in all regions IRENA = International Renewable Energy Agency EE = Energy Efficiency, measured in Energy Intensity of GDP RE = Renewable Energy EA = Energy Access CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate SE4ALL = United Nations Sustainable Energy for All Initiative

6 ETSAP-TIAM Regions ETSAP-TIAM Regions AFR Africa AUS Australia & NZ CAN Canada CHI China CSA Central and South America EEU Eastern Europe FSU Former Soviet Union IND India JPN Japan MEA Middle East MEX Mexico ODA Other Developing Asia SKO South Korea USA United States WEU Western Europe

7 Fossil Fuel Reserves (oil, coal, gas) OI**** GA**** CO**** Extraction Trade Upstream Fuels Secondary Transformation BIO*** Trade OPEC/ NON-OPEC regrouping OIL*** GAS*** COA*** ELC CH 4 options Carbon capture CO 2 Carbon sequestration Terrestrial sequestration Biomass Potential BIO*** Climate Module Atm. Conc. ΔForcing ΔTemp Other Renewables Nuclear WIN SOL GEO TDL HYD NUC Power and Heat Fuels ELC*** Electricity Cogeneration Heat ELC HET Hydrogen production and distribution SYNH2 ELC HET BIO*** End Use Fuels Used for reporting & setting targets Industrial Service Composition I*** IND*** Industrial Tech. INDELC INDELC IS** Auto Production Cogeneration AGR*** Agriculture Tech. COM*** Commercial Tech. RES*** Residential Tech. TRA*** Transport Tech. I** (6) N 2 O options A** (1) C** (8) R** (11) T** (16) CH 4 options CH 4 options Demands Non-energy sectors (CH 4 ) Landfills Manure Bio burning, rice, enteric ferm Wastewater

8 Energy Efficiency Historic Trends in Energy Intensity Improvement Rate (EIIR) Energy Intensity Pathway when SE4ALL objectives are achieved SE4ALL = United Nations Sustainable Energy for All Initiative

9 Historic Trends in Global EIIR 0.5% Rate of Change (%/year) 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% -2.0% -2.5% -3.0% -3.5% Annual Change 5-year average 10-year average 20-year average 5-year CAGR 10-year CAGR 20-year CAGR GTF 10-year CAGR GTF 20-year CAGR EIIR = Energy Intensity Improvement Rate, CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate, GTF = Global Tracking Framework

10 Regional Energy Intensity Pathways EEflex&REflex&EA Scenario (SE4ALL Objectives Achieved)

11 Region Ambition of SE4ALL EE Target Average Annual EIIR, Historic Max EIIR, (5- year rolling average) Average Annual EIIR to meet SE4ALL EE objective Greater than historic average? Greater than historic max reduction over 5 year period? Africa -0.9% -2.3% -1.7% YES Australia & NZ -1.3% -2.5% -2.8% YES YES Canada -1.4% -3.0% -0.9% China -4.3% -6.5% -3.9% Central & South America -0.6% -1.4% -1.7% YES YES Eastern Europe -3.0% -4.8% -2.5% Former Soviet Union -1.9% -5.5% -3.4% YES India -2.4% -3.4% -3.2% YES Japan -0.3% -1.8% -1.6% YES Middle East 1.0% -0.9% -3.1% YES YES Mexico -0.7% -2.4% -2.3% YES Other Developing Asia -1.1% -2.3% -2.7% YES YES South Korea -0.1% -2.4% -0.8% YES United States -1.7% -2.4% -2.4% YES equal Western Europe -1.2% -2.0% -1.7% YES Europe -1.5% -2.3% -1.6% YES

12 Compatibility between EE and RE What is the effect on energy efficiency when the SE4ALL renewable energy objective is achieved? What is the effect on renewable energy when energy efficiency the SE4ALL objective is achieved? EE = Energy Efficiency, measured in energy intensity of GDP RE = Renewable Energy SE4ALL = United Nations Sustainable Energy for All Initiative

13 Regional EIIR Largest EE potential in China, FSU, and India RE target induces EE improvement (~ ½ way to SE4ALL EE Objective)

14 Energy Intensity, by Scenario SE4ALL Reference (~ ½ way to SE4ALL EE Objective) SE4ALL RE Objective SE4ALL EE Objective EE = Energy Efficiency, measured in energy intensity of GDP RE = Renewable Energy SE4ALL = United Nations Sustainable Energy for All Initiative

15 Renewable Energy, by Scenario SE4ALL RE Objective (~ ½ way to SE4ALL RE Objective) SE4ALL EE Objective IRENA REmap IRENA Reference EE = Energy Efficiency, measured in energy intensity of GDP RE = Renewable Energy SE4ALL = United Nations Sustainable Energy for All Initiative

16 Compatibility of EA How does the Energy Access objective affect the renewable energy share of global final energy? What are the additional costs of achieving the Energy Access objective? EA = Energy Access; universal electricity access and phase out of traditional biomass

17 RE% by region and sector EA reduces RE% in Africa, requiring greater RE in the developed world. EA reduces RE% in Residential, requiring more reductions in transport and industry. EA = Energy Access; universal electricity access and phase out of traditional biomass, RE% = Renewable share of final energy

18 Regional Investment by Scenario, Relative to Reference

19 Sectoral Investment by Scenario, Relative to Reference

20 CO2 Emissions How do the different SE4ALL objectives contribute to the climate change mitigation? What is relationship between costs and emissions reductions across scenarios? SE4ALL = United Nations Sustainable Energy for All Initiative

21 Emissions by Scenario

22 Emissions Versus Investment Costs NPV = Net Present Value of investments , 5% discounting

23 General Conclusions Achieving the SE4ALL EE objective on its own promotes RE deployment half way to the SE4ALL RE objective. and vice versa Taken alone, the EE objective reduces emissions more than the RE objective, but is also more expensive. Both together reduce more than either alone, for only slightly more cost. i.e., it is cost effective to pursue EE and RE together. EA increases emissions slightly, and requires substantially more investment in the residential sectors of developing regions; transport and industry in developed regions. Achieving the SE4ALL objectives is compatible with keeping global warming under 2 (between 50 and 66% probability), but additional measures will likely be necessary. EE = Energy Efficiency, measured in energy intensity of GDP RE = Renewable Energy SE4ALL = United Nations Sustainable Energy for All Initiative

24 Sustainable Development Conclusions From a global cost optimization point of view, it is generally cheapest to replace traditional biomass with fossil-based energy. Linear models (with exogenous GDP) lack the capability to fully describe PESTLEG barriers, as well as the economic dynamics of providing energy access. What is the effect of an improved energy infrastructure on GDP and energy consumption? Area for future research GDP = Gross Domestic Product PESTLEG = political, economic, social, technological, legal, environmental, and governmental