Low carbon economy and its impacts

Transcription

1 Low carbon economy and its impacts Elisabetta Vignati (+IES colleagues) Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra Antonio Soria Institute for Perspective Technological Studies, Seville Efstathios Peteves Institute for Energy and Transport, Petten 3 rd Annual JRC Modelling Conference, Petten, October 2013

2 Policy issues addressed and JRC contribution PAST 5 YEARS Major policy issues JRC deliverables (+ models) Crosscutting Energy Climate Action EU climate and energy package 2020 EU 2030 framework for climate and energy policies Energy Roadmap 2050 Energy Technologies & Innovation / SET-Plan Shale gas Impact Assessment Smart Grids Low-carbon Roadmap 2050 EU Adaptation Strategy 2013 Implementation of the Reference Scenario (LUMP) Assessment of economic impact of the package (GEM-E3) Assessment of techno-economic input data Assessment of SET-Plan impact Potential energy market impact Cost-Benefit Analysis Resource availability Analysis of impacts (POLES / GEM-E3 / FASST) Transport White Paper Single European Transport Area Impact Assessment (TRANSTOOLS) 2

3 Overview of main JRC models Technical / Microeconomic / Micro-economic Bio-Physical Regional-Local Global Macro- economic Fully operational; used in-house Under development Impacts: climate, health, food availability General economy GEM-E3 Energy Technoeconomics Infrastructure, Resources JRC- EU- TIMES POTEnCIA POLES Transport Technical transport models TRANS- TOOLS Climate Agriculture LULUCF non-co 2 CBM-CFS/EFDM LUMP CAPRI FASST CESM 3

4 Energy/climate scenarios: current set-up Technical / Microeconomic Bio-Physical Regional-Local Micro-economic Global Macro- economic Fully operational; used in-house Under development External Impacts: climate, health, food availability General economy Energy Transport COPERT Energy activity Macroeconomic scenario PRIMES + TREMOVE Global fuel prices Prometheus POLES GEM-E3 Global mitigation scenarios Climate Agriculture LULUCF non-co 2 G4M CAPRI GLOBIOM GAINS LULUCF Non-CO 2 emissions FASST 4

5 Energy/climate scenarios: JRC strategy Technical / Microeconomic Micro-economic Bio-Physical Regional-Local Global Macro- economic Fully operational; used in-house Under development External Impacts: climate, health, food availability General economy Macroeconomic scenario Global fuel prices GEM-E3 Energy POTEnCIA POLES Global mitigation scenarios Transport COPERT Energy activity Climate Agriculture LULUCF non-co 2 CBM-CFS/EFDM CAPRI LUMP GAINS emissions FASST CESM.. 5

6 Climate impact scenarios: key JRC models Description, collaborations, planning CAPRI CBM-CFS LUMP CAPRI is a global, spatial, PE model with a focus on Europe (NUTS2) designed to analyse a wide range of policies and topics related to the agricultural sector, including agrienvironmental interactions. CAPRI can quantify GHG emissions in the agricultural sector as well as production and economic impacts linked to mitigation policies and also accounts for global emission leakage. A forest growth model capable of simulating the current and future dynamic of various carbon pools at country level, depending on the harvest scenarios. Developed in Canada, at EU level operated by JRC (operational for 25 MS). Ongoing work to link it with LUMP + POLES. The Land Use Modelling Platform was developed by the IES to support policy needs, such as exploration of future policies and impact assessments of specific proposals. It aims to provide a comprehensive, consistent and harmonised analysis of the impacts and responses to environmental and socio-economic changes in Europe FASST Global source-receptor model for impacts on air quality and climate, allows fast exploration of impact of abatement policies, sectoral/national emission reductions, sectoral apportionment of impacts, current and future emission scenarios,...

7 Land Use Modelling Platform Implementation of the ENER/CLIMA Reference Scenario Scenarios Setting (EUCLIMIT Framework) CAPRI GLOBIO/ G4M EUROPOP2010 GEM-E3 Demand for resources, commodities, energy,.. Policy & Measures Agriculture (spatial aspects CAP, esp. support scheme) Biodiversity and Habitat protection (Habitat/birds directives, N2000), Nationally Designated Areas Renewables directive, TEN-Transport Dynamic Spatial Allocation (what/where/when/how much) Impact Assessment Land-use based indicators: Land-use/cover allocation Change hotspots (competition) Regional changes Exposure to CC Thematic indicators: Water Demand - Use Biomass demand & supply Green Infrastructures Ecosystem Services 7

8 Overview of main JRC models Technical / Microeconomic / Micro-economic Bio-Physical Regional-Local Global Macro- economic Fully operational; used in-house Under development Impacts: climate, health, food availability General economy GEM-E3 Energy Technoeconomics Infrastructure, Resources JRC- EU- TIMES POTEnCIA POLES Transport Technical transport models TRANS- TOOLS Climate Agriculture LULUCF non-co 2 CBM-CFS/EFDM LUMP CAPRI FASST CESM 8

9 Energy/climate scenarios: key JRC models Description, collaborations, planning GEM-E3 A reference EU and global multi-sectoral CGE model, with a quasistatic approach (although dynamically linked with investments, productivity and demographics). A well-established tool, with data and structure maintained by the JRC with the key model partners POLES A consolidated instrument to address global energy market and energy-related GHG emissions, extensively used since more than 10 years to support EC policies, mainly in climate policy. Maintained and exploited by the JRC and co-owners POTEnCIA A new tool under development, with the scope to address EU specific energy scenarios, and the corresponding policy impact assessment. See next slide 9

10 Energy/climate scenarios: POTEnCIA Description, collaborations, planning Description Collaborations Planned improvements Planned policy support A new pan-eu energy market model, designed to specifically address not only supply-side-based policies but also decentralized energy-efficient technology adoption and decentralized renewable energy sources. Technology dynamics, and technology substitution are treated with high detail. One of the key features is the vintage formulation not only in the supply side, but also in the demand side. Geared to support overall EU energy/ climate scenarios, complementary to the JRC-EU-TIMES model that performs more detailed techno-economic analyses. The only owner is the JRC, but the model aims at being distributed to MS and stakeholders to discuss scenarios, policy implementation plans, etc. in a transparent way Innovative approaches are followed to better address demand issues of crucial interest, i.e. asymmetric price response (rebound effect etc.) as well improving the modeling of energy trade EC Energy Scenarios EC Climate Scenarios 10

11 Energy technology/infrastructure: JRC strategy Technical / Microeconomic / Microeconomic / Physical Local Global Technology parameters Macroeconomic scenario Fully operational; used in-house Under development Macroeconomic GEM-E3 Techno-economic models Infrastructure JRC- EU- TIMES Global fuel prices POTEnCIA POLES Infrastructure configuration and bottle-necks Energy system properties 11

12 Energy technology/infrastructure: key JRC models Description, collaborations, planning JRC-EU- TIMES See next slide Technoeconomics & Resources Bottom-up subsector models: e.g. Iron & Steel, Cement, Reference CCS plants Heat & Cooling Market Model Dispatch models: Dispa-SET Economics of storage: Spirit PV-GIS, Hydro-GIS Infrastructure (see detailed chart) Gas Infrastructure (technical, market, and physical models) Power Infrastructure (technical, market, and physical models, HiL, real-time simulation) 12

13 Energy technology/infrastructure: JRC-EU-TIMES Description, collaborations, planning Description Collaborations Technology rich bottom-up energy system optimisation (partial equilibrium) model designed for analysing the role of energy technologies and their innovation, as well as infrastructure interaction ; regional scope: EU MS and neighboring countries; improved version of earlier pan EU TIMES models developed in EU funded projects; soft linking ongoing with high spatial and temporal resolution (NEPLAN and dispatch models); model fully owned and operated by JRC. Complementary to POTEnCIA aligning the reference scenario to it. Examples: IRENA (joint modeling work) via IEA-ETSAP, IEA-ETP (data exchange, reviewer), EDF (FR, data exchange, reviewer), BOKU (AT, data provider) Planned improvements External model validation with CLIMA, ENER, RTD & IEA, EDF (FR), Fraunhofer ISI (DE), ECN (NL), ETI (UK), CRES (GR), among others RES potential assumptions, increase technology detail, modelling of high penetration of intermittent RES, H2 economy/power to gas Planned policy support Support SET-Plan integrated roadmap (follow up of ETI Communication) Evaluate the contribution of SET-Plan Technologies to a future cost-effective lowcarbon energy system (assess long-term role of technologies) 13

14 Energy Energy markets/infrastructure/technology: Addressing Energy Security GEMFLOW Mass balance EU-wide Technical / Physical Gas Infrastructure EUGas Hydraulic; steady state / transient Interdependencies Electricity Infrastructure PowerAgent resloadsim Prosumers & Consumers EUPower STUM Staticdynamic simulators EUGasR Reliability PowerRT Real-time simulators EUPower Dispatch Techno-economic / Local-EU Technoeconomic models JRC-EU- TIMES PLEXOS-EU Technoeconomic / Global Macroeconomic scenario ETSAP- TIAM Microeconomic / Local POTEnCIA Fully operational; used in-house Under development Macroeconomic GEM- E3 14

15 Transport: JRC Strategy Fully developed; operated in-house Under development Technical / Microeconomic / Microeconomic / Macroeconomic Physical Local Global Technical characteristics POTEnCIA (Transport Activity Sector) Transport demand Technical transport models TRANSTOOLS GEM-E3 Integrated Electromobility model 15

16 Transport: key JRC models Description, collaborations, planning TRANS- TOOLS EU- wide, network based, multi-modal transport model: includes transport demand generation, trip distribution, modal split and assignment on the networks. Developed in the context of several FP7 research projects and studies funded by DG MOVE. Developers include the Danish Technical University, TNO, NEA. JRC currently developing a new, simplified version that focusses on EC policy support Technical transport models Integrated Electromobility model Specialized tools addressing specific issues of vehicle technology and emissions (TREMOVE, COPERT, Marco Polo external cost calculator, Fleet impact model, Powertrain technology transition scenario model,, etc..) Combination of external collaborations and/or ad-hoc tools Continuous updating of data and methodologies, connection with JRC laboratory measurements Combination of techno-economic, physical, and market models to study in detail the interaction of electro-mobility with the power system and infrastructure 16

17 Conclusions JRC has gained independence and versatility in the exploitation and maintenance of impact assessment tools, and benefits from the direct link to key policy makers There are missing elements in the overall IA chain, efforts have to continue in developing those and above everything in gaining consistency and transparency Consistency between energy scenarios and impacts can be achieved only closing the loop of the model chain 17