TIMES Energy System Models at UCL
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1 TIMES Energy System Models at UCL WholeSEM DECC Stakeholder Workshop March 6 th 2014 Dr. Hannah Daly
2 Energy Systems Modelling Team in UCL EI Prof. Paul Ekins Prof. Neil Strachan Dr. Gabrial Anandarajah Dr. Ilkka Keppo Dr. Paul Dodds Mr. Steve Pye Dr. Christophe McGlade Mr. Baltazar Solano Ms. Marianne Zeyringer Dr. Olivier Dessens Mr. Will McDowall Dr. Evelina Trutnevyte Mr. Will Usher Dr. Matthew Winning Ms. Nagore Sabio Dr. Hannah Daly Ms. Birgit Fais
3 Overview of Platforms & UCL Models
4 GW Investment Decisions in UKTM Demand? Investment? 20 - Coal Gas Nuclear Renewables Biofuels Hydro Oil
5 UKTM Model Paradigm A least cost optimization model based on life-cycle costs of competing technology pathways (to meet energy demand services) Partial equilibrium model assuming rational decision making, perfect information, competitive markets, perfect foresight Technology rich bottom-up model An integrated energy systems model Physical, economic and policy constraints to represent UK energy system and environment Model and data validation Emphasis on sensitivity and uncertainty analysis Extension to TIMES-Macro, elastic demand (ED), stochastic, mixed integer, endogenous learning, multi-region, etc.
6 Whole Energy System Coverage Primary energy supply Uranium import Oil resources Oil import Coal resources Coal import Gas resources Gas import Biomass & Waste Area PV, Solarthermal, Energy crops Conversion sector Coal processing Oil Refinery Gas processing Elec sector Coal cond. PP Nuclear PP Coal IGCC PP Gas CC PP Wind converter CHP sector Coal CHP Coal CHP Gas CC CHP Biomass CC CHP End-use sectors Residential Gas heating Oil heating Elc. heating Local heat grid Gas water boiler Elc. water boiler Elc. heat pump Commercial Room heat boilers Process heat boilers Warm water boilers Industry Industrial boilers Transport Gasoline vehicle Area Wind Electrolysis Gasification Liquefication CNG vehicle Hydrogen FC vehicle Electric vehicles Biofuel vehicles
7 MINING LIMITS & TRADE Energy, Economy, Engineering & Environment (E4) Interactions ENERGY AND ECONOMY AVAILABILITY/CHOICE OF TECHNOLOGIES GDP & CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS TIMES ENERGY SERVICE DEMANDS ENVIRONMENTAL LIMITS ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS ENVIRONMENT
8 Established international TIMES model platform Source: U Remme, IEA
9 Strong lineage: UK MARKAL & policy 9
10 Why move from UK MARKAL to UKTM? New functionality of UKTM All GHG accounting Time-slicing for intermittency and storage across different time slices Improved industrial sector: Process based subsectors and mitigation options Comprehensive revision and review of MARKAL Transparency at the forefront of development Data, assumptions, structure is clear and traceable Full replicability of results QA processes implemented to trace model development Revise all inputs Using up-to-date, consistent data calibration to 2010 User constraints categorized & explicit Many advantages of TIMES platform MARKAL tool has been superseded internationally TIMES offers much greater flexibility
11 The future of UKTM in research Technological change: Endogenous technology learning & diffusion of technologies What role does technological change change play in the transition of the energy system? Spatial and temporal disaggregation: Multi-region version of UKTM to address spatial and temporal issues in long term transitions UKTM has linkage points to power market model, multi-regional Forseer tool. Behaviour modelling: Improving behavioural realism beyond own price elasticities What are the mitigation opportunities for the energy system in behaviour change? Modelling to generate alternatives What are the near-optimal but most different pathways to reaching targets? Macro-economic modelling: Hybrid Macro version: Endogenous general equilibrium model; link to multi-regional model What is the impact of the energy system on the economy? Bioenergy: Linking bioenergy resources to land use in the new agriculture and land use sector Land will become a fundamental resource from which bioenergy resources are derived
12 European TIMES Model (ETM-UCL) Multi- regional: 11 regions, EU28+3 Each region is modelled as a separate energy system Regions are linked through trade in crude oil, hard coal, pipeline gas, LNG, petroleum products, biomass, electricity and emission permits. ETM-UCL designed for and currently used in two FP7 EU research projects ( IBE UKI FRA NOI BNL DEU SWZ IAM SDF EEN EES
13 TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (TIAM-UCL) Multi-emissions, plus a climate module Flexible time horizon to 2100 Global coverage 16 regions UK is an explicit region
14 UCL-Energy Models: 14
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