RETENTION OF ACADEMIA AT MAKERERE UNIVERSITY : A TIME-TO-EVENT ANALYSIS

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1 RETENTION OF ACADEMIA AT MAKERERE UNIVERSITY : A TIME-TO-EVENT ANALYSIS Keneth Muhwezi School of Sttistics nd Plnning, Mkerere University, Ugnd Roert Wml School of Sttistics nd Plnning, Mkerere University, Ugnd Leonrd K. Atuhire School of Sttistics nd Plnning, Mkerere University, Ugnd Astrct Voice of Reserch Volume 5, Issue 4 Mrch 2017 ISSN The study investigted the dynmics of the service durtion of cdemic stff t Mkerere University sing on the dministrtive records of 1,486 cdemic stff t the university, recruited in the period The period from the dte of first ppointment to the dte of exit ws dopted s mesure of the service durtion t the university. A time-to-event pproch in Cox model ws dopted in the nlysis. The results, show tht the medin durtion mong cdemic stff who hd left the university service y Decemer 2012 (N = 213) is 4.56 yers (rnge, ). This figure points to low retention of cdemi t the university. The rte of exit from the university service reduces significntly with higher cdemic rnks nd increse in ge t the time of recruitment. The findings point to need to scleup mesures in retining stff prticulrly those t lower levels. Keywords: Retention, Acdemi, Mkerere Univrsity, Time-to-event Anlysis. For ny orgniztion to thrive, retining nd mintining stff is essentil ecuse they re considered vlule sset to the orgniztion (Hrting, 2010; Tettey, 2010). Undesirle employee turnover is ssocited with oth recruitment nd fresher trining costs; it lso cretes n dditionl urden on the existing stff. Thus, Hrting s (2010) rgument of inefficiency t work due to undesirle employee turnover is supported. In the literture, retention in cdemi hs een ttriuted to comintion of fctors comprising, lthough not limited to: (i) enefits (e.g., Giles, 2004; Metclf, Rolfe, Stevens, & Wele, 2005; Muceke, Irvo, & Nmusonge, 2012; Ssesng & Grrett, 2005); (ii) socio-demogrphic chrcteristics of teching stff (e.g., Luekens, Lyter, & Fox, 2004; Roessler, 2002); (iii) remunertion (e.g., Amutuhire, 2011; Aswthpp, 2005; Giles, 2004; Knmwngi, 2005; MUASA, 2003; Roessler, 2002; Tettey, 2010); nd (iv) cdemic qulifiction nd/or rnk (Mmdn, 2007). Likewise, motivtors such s recognition t work nd symolic rewrds ply criticl role in enhncing employee intentions to sty (Giles, 2004). Although ll employees vlue money, these non-monetry rewrds re gret motivtor to ensure retention. At Mkerere University, ttrcting nd retining stff ws listed s mjor chllenge in its 2008 nnul report (Mkerere University, 2008, 2009). Evidence from Ssesng nd Grrett (2005), Xioyng (2004), s well s Shichermn (2005) does not revel otherwise with regrds to jo retention t the university; these studies revel setck in jo retention mong the teching stff. This evidence does not ugur well for the university s vision of eing leding institution for cdemic excellence nd innovtion in Afric. In other words, the university s excellence would lrgely depend upon the people it is le to enlist nd retin in its cdemic units. Persistence of this sitution is certin to ffect the lerning outcomes (NCHE, 2004). Although relted studies on the employee sitution t Mkerere University point to low jo retention, prticulrly mong teching stff (e.g., Amutuhire, 2011; Mkerere University, 2008; Shichermn, 2005; Ssesng & Grrett, 2005; Xioyng, 2004), these do not provide ny sttistics to support their llegtions. These studies provide no ssessment of the durtion nd pttern of service t the university. In ddition, these studies re limited in scope nd coverge. Certinly, this leves lot unnswered with regrd to stff retention, prticulrly mong cdemic stff t the university. This study provides n ssessment of the durtion, pttern, nd rte of service of the cdemic stff. The investigtions in this study cut cross ll the cdemic units t the university. Dt nd Methods The ssessment is sed on the dministrtive records of 1,486 cdemic stff t the university, recruited in the period The dt ws extrcted from the Integrted Tertiry System (ITS), n informtion system used y the university t the time of dt compiltion (Decemer, 2012). In prticulr, the dt ws otined from two min susystems of the ITS, nmely the Humn Resource Informtion System (HURIS) nd the Finncil Mngement Informtion System (FINIS). For the investigtions, the period from the dte of first ppointment to the dte of exit from the university service ws dopted s mesure of service durtion. In light of the right-skewed nture of service durtion, time-to-event pproch in Cox-Proportionl Hzrd model ws dopted in the investigtion. The nlysis ws done in three stges: A descriptive summry of the durtion nd sttus of service t the university ws mde using summry sttistics nd frequency distriutions, respectively. Furthermore, the proility of service to the university, which is the persistence function, is determined using the Kpln-Meier (1958) estimtor. Differentils in persistence of cdemic stff y their chrcteristics (cdemic rnk, discipline re, mritl sttus, cdemic qulifiction, gender, 41 Voice of Reserch, Vol. 5 Issue 4, Mrch 2017, ISSN

2 nd ge) were investigted using the log-rnk chi-squre test (Mntel, 1966; Peto, 1972). The Cox PH Regression ws dopted to investigte the rte of exit from university service. The time-vrint spect of some vriles in the investigtion ws ddressed y splitting the durtion of service whenever there ws n exit (Cleves, Gould, Gutierrez, & Mrchenko, 2010). However, only vriles tht yielded smll proility vlue (0.25 or less) in the nlysis, which employed the log-rnk test, were considered for further investigtion in multivrite Cox PH model (Hosmer, Lemeshow, & My, 2008). Results The cdemic stff exmined were predominntly mle (72.9%), recruited into science disciplines (65.3%), nd mrried (61.2%). The highest proportion of the stff t recruitment ws of ssistnt lecturers (36.9%), followed y lecturers (28.3%), senior lectures (12.6%), nd teching ssistnts (11.9%), while the rest were ssocite professors nd professors. Regrding cdemic qulifictions, slightly more thn hlf (53.0%) hd mster s degree t the time of recruitment; the rest hd either doctorte (28.4%) or chelor s degree (18.6%). The vst mjority (85.7%) were recruited into the university service elow the ge of 40. Durtion of Service-In light of the skewed nture of the service durtion, the ssumed normlity of the vrile would e unrelistic. All the sme, the vrile does not spn the entire rel line. Thus, the vrile ws sujected to the Shpiro-Wilk non-normlity test (Shpiro & Wilk, 1965). The normlity ssumption ws violted in the ssessment of the entire dtset (N = 1,486; p < 0.01) nd the nlysis sed on cdemic stff who hd left the university s service t the time of the study (N = 213; p < 0.01). The evidence certinly disqulifies the ppliction of OLS following liner regression to nlyze such dt, despite the fct tht it cn e used to del with right-censoring censored norml. In other words, the ppliction of time-to-event pproch in the nlysis is highly supported. To this end, Tles 1 nd 2 present descriptive summry of the durtion nd pttern of service, respectively. Of the 1,486 stff recruited during the period , totl of 213 hd left the service y the time of the study, representing 14.3% ttrition rte. According to Tle 2, the one-yer ttrition rte of the university stff is 3% (N = 44); the two-yer nd three-yer rtes re 4.6% (N = 68) nd 5.5% (N = 81), respectively. Bsed on the totl numer of cdemic stff who hd left the university y the time of the study (N = 213), the medin durtion of service is 4.56 yers (rnge, ). The findings point to low retention of cdemi t the university. Rte of Exit from the University Service-As stted erlier, the rte of exit from the university ws modeled in multivrite nlysis using Cox-PH regression. Although the vriles discipline re, mritl sttus, nd gender yielded lrge proility vlues during the log-rnk test (p > 0.25), these vriles were incorported in the nlysis t the multivrite stge ecuse of their reltive importnce in the literture. Tle 3 represents n ssessment of the rte of exit from university service sed on the Cox PH regression. Regression Dignostics-Three dignostic tests were run. First, the proportionlity ssumption of the hzrds using the Schoenfeld nd scled Schoenfeld residuls nd log-log plots were stisfied; the prllel line of the log-log plots suggested tht the vriles did not violte the proportionlity ssumption of the Cox model. Second, the specifiction errors of the link function (log hzrd) indicte tht the loghzrd function ws well-specified, s predicted y the ht sttistic (_ht: p < 0.05). The ht-squre sttistic (_htsq) revels tht no dditionl vriles were significnt (p > 0.05), s shown in Tle 4. Third, the goodness of fit ws evluted using the Cox-Snell residuls. According to Figure 1, the cumultive hzrd function closely followed the 45 line. Thus, the finl model fitted the dt reltively well. Summry of the Findings-The results presented in Tle 2 indicte tht rnk, cdemic qulifiction nd ge were significntly ssocited with the durtion of service (p < 0.05). These findings re summrized elow: The rte of exit from university service reduces with higher cdemic rnks t the time of recruitment. This rte ws the highest mong cdemic stff t the rnk of teching ssistnt (HR = 17.2) nd lowest mong the lecturers (HR = 1.7), s compred to stff t the rnk of ssocite professor nd ove.; Acdemic stff with chelor s degree t the time of recruitment hd 32% reduced rte of exit from university service compred to those with doctorte (HR = 0.67).; The rte of exit from university service reduces with n increse in ge t the time recruitment. The rte ws the highest mong cdemic stff elow the ge of 29 (HR = 11.9) nd lowest in the ctegory (HR = 1.6), s compred to those ove 40 yers of ge. Conversely, gender, mritl sttus, nd discipline re did not vry significntly y durtion of service (p > 0.05). In other words, the durtion of service of cdemic stff t the university did not vry significntly y these vriles. Discussion nd Conclusions The overll turnover rte of cdemic stff (14.0%) in the results points to low retention of cdemi t the university. The figure presented for the one-yer turnover rte of stff t the university (3%) does not show otherwise. However, the one-yer turnover rte of stff t the university compres fvorly with estimtes reported mong selected universities in the developed countries. Hrrign (1999) reports the following one-yer turnover rtes mong universities in the United Sttes of Americn in 1996: 4.9% t Cornell University, 4% t University of Iow, 5.4% t University of Minnesot, 5.5% t Ohio Stte University, nd 5.9% t University of Wisconsin-Mdison. In the United Kingdom, Metclf, Rolfe, Stevens, nd Wele (2005) report n nnul turnover rnging etween 2.8 nd 5.3 percent. An ssessment of the durtion of service for cdemic stff who hd left the university y the time of the study (N= 213) does not revel otherwise with regrds to jo retention t the 42 Voice of Reserch, Vol. 5 Issue 4, Mrch 2017, ISSN

3 university. In the results, the medin durtion of service is 4.56 yers (rnge, ). The sitution is mde worse y the cdemic stff shortfll of 41% reported in the university s Strtegic Pln 2000/ /5 (Mkerere University, 2009). Recent evidence pulished y The Independent presents stff deficit of 49% ccording to findings y the office of the uditor generl (Asinj, 2012). In ffirming the mgnitude of stffing prolems t Mkerere University, Tettey (2006, 2010) reports deficits of 54%, 57%, 62%, nd 62% in the School of Pulic Helth, Medicl School, Est Africn School of Lirry nd Informtion Science, nd Institute of Psychology, respectively. These deficits demonstrte lrge gp in the university s humn resource cpcity nd consequently point to low ility of the existing cdemic stff to crry out reserch nd teching responsiilities (Tettey, 2010). In light of the stffing cpcity deficit in the university s cdemic units, Mugimu et l. s (2009) rgument of hevy teching nd supervisory worklod for teching stff t the university is highly supported. In other words, cdemic stff growth hs not mtched student enrollment growth t the university (Tettey, 2010). Likewise, mny Africn Universities hve experienced significnt growth in student enrollment over the pst decde (Tettey, 2010). Certinly, it would not e surprise to find tht the cdemic stff in these institutions re fcing hevy teching nd supervisory worklod s well. Nevertheless, Wml nd Ssemty (2013) re justified in ttriuting the low scholrly productivity of cdemi in Ugnd to the hevy teching nd supervisory worklod. A similr explntion is likely to hold for the low scholrly productivity of cdemi in mny other Africn institutions of higher lerning. In the multivrite ssessment, the rte of exit from the university service ws significntly higher for stff with lower cdemic rnks nd ges t the time of recruitment. The lower cdemic rnks of exiting stff points to n undesirle withdrwl of these individuls from university service. From the short durtion of service (4.56 yers) estimted in the results, it is cler tht lrge numer of stff exiting from the university re young cdemic stff. These findings re in line with Amutuhire s (2011) study tht suggested reduced rte of leving university service mong cdemic stff with higher rnks. The fct tht slry scles re sed on one s cdemic rnk lends credence to the rgument of poor remunertion eing key fctor for stff turnover t the university (e.g., Tettey, 2008; Mugimu, Nkugo, & Ktunguk, 2007). The sitution with regrds to remunertion nd/or welfre is likely to e much worse for stff t the lower rnks. It is no surprise tht the results of this study revel higher rtes of exit from the university mong cdemic stff t the lower rnks nd those younger in ge t the time of recruitment. With regrds to gender, the results of this study reveled no significnt vritions in the rte of exit from the university s service (p > 0.05). A relted ssessment of intentions to sty in service mong cdemic stff t Mkerere University (Amutuhire, 2011) supports these findings; no significnt difference in intentions to continue lecturing etween mle nd femle cdemic stff t the university. However, the findings run counter to the evidence provided y Luekens et l. (2004), Boyd et l. (2002), nd Ingersoll (2001) tht identified gender s predictor of time spent in teching service. These studies revel higher likelihood of stying in service for the mles compred to the femles. With regrds to ge, the consensus is tht the rte of exit from service increses with ge (e.g., Hnushek, Kin & Rivkin, 2004; Ingersoll, 2001). The ssessment y Murnne et l. (1991) regrding gender nd ge reveled tht femle techers over the ge of 30 were more likely to sty thn the younger techers of either gender. In summry, the findings of this study point to need to step-up mesures to retin cdemic stff t the lower levels. This is ecuse cdemic stff t the lower rnks constitutes pool from which the future genertion of cdemics will e drwn. In other words, retining stff t the lower rnks is importnt for the university in chieving its gol of ecoming leding institution for cdemic excellence nd innovtion. Tle 1 - Descriptive Summry of the Durtion of Service (Yers) N Min Mx Medin Std. Err 95% CI (Medin) Lower Upper Note: Summry sttistics re sed on stff who hd left the university for resons other thn retirement or deth Tle 2 - Pttern of Persistence of Acdemic Stff Intervl (Yers) Totl Leving Censore d c Persisten ce Function Std. Error 0 1 1, , , , , Denotes cdemic stff recruited in the period Denotes cdemic stff leving university service for resons other thn retirement or deth c Denotes existing cdemic stff t the university 43 Voice of Reserch, Vol. 5 Issue 4, Mrch 2017, ISSN

4 Tle 3 - Rte of Exit from University Service Stff Chrcteristics β HR(95% CI) Std. p- Err vlue Rnk Associte Professor. 1.. nd ove Senior Lecturer ( ) Lecturer ( ) Assistnt Lecturer ( ) Teching Assistnt ( ) Discipline Sciences. 1.. Arts ( ) Gender Mle. 1.. Femle ( ) Mritl Sttus Mrried. 1.. Not Mrried ( ) Acdemic Qulifiction Doctor of. 1.. Philosophy Msters ( ) Bchelors ( ) Age 40 Yers nd ove Yers ( ) Yers ( ) Below 29 Yers ( ) Note: Likelihood Rtio (LR) chi-squre = , p < 0.001, N = 1,443 Reference ctegory HR (95% CI) represents hzrd rtio nd corresponding Confidence Intervl Tle 4 - Specifiction Errors of Link Function Log Hzrd Function Coefficient Std. Err P-vlue _ht _htsq Note: Specifiction errors of Cox PH model in Tle 2. Ht Sttistic Ht-squre Sttistic Figure 1: Goodness of Fit of Cox PH Model in Tle 3 References Adms, J. S. (1963). Towrds n understnding of inequity. Journl of Anorml nd Socil Psychology, 67 (5), Amutuhire, T. (2011). Terms of service nd jo retention. Firford, United Kingdom: Lp Lmert Acdemic Pulishing AG & Co Kg. Aswthpp, K. (2005). Humn Resource nd Personnel Mngement: Text nd cses. Noid, Indi: Tt McGrw Hill. Asinj, M. H. (2012). Mkerere Loses Stff Over Low Py. The Independent, news-nlysis/5863-mkerere-losing-stff-over-low-py viewed 24 Ferury Boyd, D., Lnkford, H., Loe, S., nd Wyckoff, J. (2002). Initil mtches, trnsfers, nd quits: Creer decisions nd the disprities in verge techer qulifictions cross schools. (Unpulished mnuscript). University of Alny, SUNY. Cleves, M., Gould, W., Gutierrez, R. G., & Mrchenko Y. V. (2010). An Introduction to Survivl Anlysis using Stt. Texs: Stt Press. Giles, T. (2004). Remunertion: Non-monetry rewrds s prt of the remunertion. Aucklnd, New Zelnd: Profile Pulishing Ltd. Gilpin, G. A. (2012). Techer slries nd techer ptitude: n nlysis using quntile regressions. Economics of Eduction Review, 31(3), Hrting, D. (2010). Employees your most vlule sset, < /ezinerticles.com/?expert=dennis_hrting> viewed 24 Septemer 2010 Hnushek, E. A., Kin, J. F., nd Rivkin, S. G. (2004). Why pulic schools lose techers. Journl of Humn Resources, 39(2), Ingersoll, R. M. (2001). Techer turnover nd techer shortges: An orgniztionl nlysis. Americn Eductionl Reserch Journl, 38(3), Kjui, W. S. (1990). The university nd development in su- Shrn Afric; the cse of Mkerere in Ugnd nzdl;jsessionid=d735b1755f49ff4106ca069378f2ce1a?=d&d=hash01322fed82dc n p&c=edudev&si=1&dt=&ec=&et=&p.=&p.s= ClssifierBrowse&p.s= viewed 10 Novemer 2012 Luekens, M. T., Lyter, D. M., nd Fox, E. E. (2004) Techer Attrition nd Moility: Results from the Techer Follow-up Survey, (NCES ). Retrieved on 44 Voice of Reserch, Vol. 5 Issue 4, Mrch 2017, ISSN

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