100 % RENEWABLE ENERGY FOR ALL. Kaisa Kosonen COP21 side-event, 4 Dec 2015

Transcription

1 100 % RENEWABLE ENERGY FOR ALL Kaisa Kosonen COP21 side-event, 4 Dec 2015 kaisa.kosonen@greenpeace.org

2 Sustainable World Energy Outlook 1st edition in 2005

3 The biennial Greenpeace Energy [R]evolution scenario [ ] has become the most widely recognized and thorough projection made by renewable energy advocates (REN Renewables Global Futures Report) Guess which modeling outfit has done the very best job of predicting the growth of wind and solar power over the past decade? Greenpeace. (David Roberts at Vox / Energy Watch Group's (EWG) report) Over the past 15 years, a number of predictions by the International Energy Agency, the US Energy Information Administration, and others have been made about the future of renewable energy growth. (...) Only the most aggressive growth projections, such as Greenpeace s Energy [R]evolution scenarios, have been close to accurate. (Meister Consultants Group) 3

4 4th edition, September 2015 Getting to 100% renewables globally by % RENEWABLE ENERGY FOR ALL

5 Through its investigation of issues surrounding the future of energy, the Global Energy [R]evolution 2015 makes an invaluable contribution to informing decision-makers worldwide. Adnan Amin, Director-General, IRENA 5

6 Methodology + Assumptions

7 Methodology Projections Forecasting Future World Long term Goal Required actions Backcasting

8 The 7 Steps of the Energy [R]evolution Transition Logic : 1. Define natural limits: 1. CO 2 emissions > towards zero 2. Fossil fuels resource assessment 2. Define renewable energy resource limits: 1. Solar, wind, geothermal, hydro, ocean energy 2. Sustainable bioenergy 3. Identify drivers for demand : 1. Population 2. Economic development 4. Define development of energy intensities: a. Buildings and households ( Other sectors ) b. Industry c. Transport 8

9 The Energy [R]evolution Transition Logic : 5. Establish timelines for implementation : 1. Power plant market development 2. Future market projection 6. Identify required Infrastructure : 1. Power and gas grids 2. Storage, e-transport and Smart-Grids 7. Identify required policy : 1. Climate target (< 2 C) 2. RE Target ( towards 100%) - FiT or comparable reliable RE policies - Mandatory grid connection - Priority dispatch 9

10 Resource assessment

11 Methodology No new Oil: The rate of phase-out of oil and gas matches the rate of depletion of existing oil and gas fields. 11

12 Methodology Shut down existing coal mines: We can not afford to burn all the coal of current mines 12

13 Renewable Resource Analysis: Regional differences reflected in regional scenarios Sustainable natural resource limits: a. Solar b. Wind c. Hydro d. Bioenergy e. Geothermal f. Ocean energy > Define optimal local mix 13

14 Efficiency Pathways

15 Efficiency Pathway Development of Global Energy Intensity: Final Energy

16 Efficiency pathway Example of the underlying sectoral analysis: Transport Technologies for Passenger Transport in MegaCities 16

17 Global Power Plant Market Analysis & RE Cost Development Projections

18 Development of the RE Market

19 Development of the RE Market

20 KEY RESULTS 20

21 Global : Power Sector 21

22 Global : Power Sector RE electricity share: 2012: 21% // 2020: 32% // 2030: 64% // 2050: 100% 22

23 Global : Power Sector Electricity supply costs: In the global average economic from the very beginning 23

24 Global : Power Sector Additional Investment Costs Entirely Refinanced by Fuel Cost Savings 24

25 Global : Heating Sector RE heating share: 2012: 21% // 2020: 25% // 2030: 43% // 2050: 94% 25

26 Global : Transport Sector RE Transport share: 2012: 3% // 2020: 5% // 2030: 19% // 2050: 100% 26

27 Global : Primary energy figure global: projection of total primary energy demand (ped) by energy carrier including electricity import balance reference, energy [r]evolution, advanced energy [r]evolution scenarios 900, , ,000 PJ/a 600, , , , , ,000 EFFICIENCY OCEAN ENERGY GEOTHERMAL SOLAR BIOMASS WIND HYDRO NATURAL GAS CRUDE OIL COAL 0 REF E[R] ADV REF E[R] ADV REF E[R] ADV REF E[R] ADV REF E[R] ADV REF E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] ADV E[R] NUCLEAR

28 Global : CO 2 Emissions % of 1990 emissions: 2012: 146% // 2020: 145% // 2030: 96% // 2040: 39% // 2050: 0% 28

29 Global : Job Effects 29

30 Global : Job Effects 30

31 How would it look like?

32 figure 3.2 a decentralised energy future ExISTING TECHNOLOGIES, APPLIED IN A DECENTRALISED WAy AND COMbINED WITH EffICIENCy MEASuRES AND zero EMISSION DEvELOPMENTS, CAN DELIvER LOW CARbON COMMuNITIES AS ILLuSTRATED HERE. POWER IS GENERATED using EffICIENT COGENERATION TECHNOLOGIES PRODuCING both HEAT (AND SOMETIMES COOLING) PLuS ELECTRICITy, DISTRIbuTED via LOCAL NETWORkS. THIS SuPPLEMENTS THE ENERGy PRODuCED from building INTEGRATED GENERATION. ENERGy SOLuTIONS COME from LOCAL OPPORTuNITIES AT both A SMALL AND COMMuNITy SCALE. THE TOWN SHOWN HERE MAkES use Of AMONG OTHERS WIND, biomass AND HyDRO RESOuRCES. NATuRAL GAS, WHERE NEEDED, CAN be DEPLOyED IN A HIGHLy EffICIENT MANNER photovoltaic, solar façades WILL be A DECORATIvE ELEMENT ON OffICE AND APARTMENT buildings. PHOTOvOLTAIC SySTEMS WILL become MORE COMPETITIvE AND IMPROvED DESIGN WILL ENAbLE ARCHITECTS TO use THEM MORE WIDELy. 2. renovation can cut energy consumption of old buildings by AS MuCH AS 80% - WITH IMPROvED HEAT INSuLATION, INSuLATED WINDOWS AND MODERN ventilation SySTEMS. 3. solar thermal collectors PRODuCE HOT WATER for both THEIR OWN AND NEIGHbOuRING buildings. 4. efficient thermal power (chp) stations WILL COME IN A variety Of SIzES - fitting THE CELLAR Of A DETACHED HOuSE OR SuPPLyING WHOLE building COMPLExES OR APARTMENT blocks WITH POWER AND WARMTH WITHOuT LOSSES IN TRANSMISSION. 5. clean electricity for THE CITIES WILL ALSO COME from farther AfIELD. OffSHORE WIND PARkS AND SOLAR POWER STATIONS IN DESERTS HAvE ENORMOuS POTENTIAL.

33 The E[R] Power Sector Logic

34 The E[R] Power Sector Logic

35 The E[R] Power Sector Logic

36 The E[R] Power Sector Logic

37 The E[R] Power Sector Logic

38 IEA (2014) The Power of Transformation: Any country can reach high shares of wind, solar power cost-effectively In the classical approach, variable renewables are added to an existing system without considering all available options for adapting it as a whole. This approach misses the point. Integration is not simply about adding wind and solar on top of business as usual. We need to transform the system as a whole to do this cost-effectively. 38

39 Set the goal straight: 100 % renewables! 39

40 What do we need to get there?

41 figure 4.4 key barriers to re investment barriers to investment ConfidenCe in PoliCy lack of PoliCy access to finance grid access utilities PriCe / Cost Planning & Permits govt. re PoliCy & law lack of info. & exp. electricity market lack of existing tech. lack of r+d land availability nat. economy & governance financial structure access to tech. financial Crisis lack of skilled labour roi for re ProjeCt & industry scale source SWISS RE

42 How the Paris Agreement can help: - Strong long-term goal: zero carbon emissions by 2050, towards 100% RE for all - Improved short-term targets (INDCs) - Ending fossil fuels subsidies - Sufficient climate funding for developing countries

43 Regardless of what appears in the final agreement, however, it is already clear that a low carbon future will be fueled by renewable energy. It is now not a question of 'IF' the world ultimately transitions to a renewable energy future, but rather whether it will do so quickly enough. - Adan Amin. IRENA Director-General - 43

44 To conclude: It can be done. It must be done. It s already happening.

45 With solar panels on the roof, a micro CHP plant in the cellar, an electric car in the drive and an intelligent consumption system, everyone can create their own energiewende. Johannes Teyssen, Chairman & CEO of E.On (Interview at Energy Post, March 6, 2015) Image credit: E.On 45

46 The Age of Renewables is Beginning join the revolution By 2025, everybody will be able to produce and store power.! Solar power is on track to be the world s leading source of electricity 46

47 IT companies that have adopted a 100% renewable goal include: Adobe, Apple, Amazon Web Services, Box, Equinix, Digital Realty Trust, Facebook, Google, LinkedIn, Microsoft, Naver, Rackspace, Salesforce, and Switch Communications. 47

48 Thank you for listening! More information: greenpeace.org/energyrevolution

49 EXTRA SLIDES 49

50 50

51 51

52 2015? 52

53 Required Policies towards 100% RE: A. Transport Sector 1. Modular shifts from road to rail 2. Speed up emobility (and that does not only mean electric cars!) 3. Harmonize embility expansion with RE expansion B. Heating Sector 1. RE heating targets 2. Interconnection of heating/cooling and power grid infrastructure 3. Electricity (= geothermal heat-pumps) replaces fuels (e.g. gas) C. Power Sector it s all about grids! 1. Priority of Grid Access for RE 2. Priority of Dispatching for RE 3. Integrate Storage Technologies via specific policies into Power Markets 4. Organize Phase Out of Coal/Nuclear Power Plants with spec. laws 5. No capacity markets energy only markets should remain New market Design