Alan Forster Shell WindEnergy. LSU Alternative Energy Conference

Transcription

1 Alan Forster Shell WindEnergy LSU Alternative Energy Conference

2 Agenda 1. New energy drivers 2. Industry overview 3. Shell Renewables 4. Carbon Management 5. The solution?

3 Agenda 1. New energy drivers 2. Industry overview 3. Shell Renewables 4. Carbon Management 5. The solution?

4 Renewables drivers are increasing Driver: Security of supply: Environmental: Technology dev: Market structure: 1970 s Oil Shocks Air quality R&D Limited Source Today Energy Security + Climate change + Deployment Personal choice => Most OECD & some non OECD countries have set RE targets

5 Energy Independence: Oil and gas import dependence will increase Oil Import dependence Gas Import dependence 100% 80% 60% % 80% 60% % 40% 20% 20% 0% OECD Europe OECD North America 0% OECD Europe OECD North America => Renewable energy is largely indigenous Source: World Energy Outlook 2004, IEA

6 Renewables drivers are increasing Driver: 1970 s Today Security of supply: Environmental: Technology dev: Market structure: Oil Shocks Air quality R&D Limited Source Energy Independence + Climate change + Deployment Personal choice => Most OECD & some non OECD countries have set RE targets

7 Environmental drivers Debate is drawing to close, even in the U.S. Science will become irrelevant perception is reality Cost of doing nothing greater than cost of action e.g. Kyoto Popular pressure will drive policy Public tone of White House has already changed e.g. Energy Hog campaign

8 Renewables are not the only solution to these drivers Others include: Carbon Sequestration Energy Efficiency Fuel switching (e.g. Coal to gas, coal/gas to nuclear) Clean hydrocarbons Renewables are the solution of choice for those countries with either a major indigenous renewable resource, firm social/political will, or because a market support framework has created an industry

9 Agenda 1. New energy drivers 2. Industry overview 3. Shell Renewables 4. Carbon Management 5. The solution?

10 Faster growth than conventional energy growth (% 10 pa) Coal Oil Gas Hydro Nuclear Renewables

11 Continued strong growth ahead Solar PV Wind Biomass Solar Thermal Geothermal Biofuels Projected growth (%pa)

12 A small but growing share of primary energy Total primary energy: TWh/year Renewables: 1 100TWh/year PV Oil Gas Coal Renewables Solar thermal Biomass Geothermal

13 The Narrowing Band: U.S. Generation Costs, Wind Real 2000 Dollars per MWh Nuclear Coal IGCC Supercritical Coal Solar PV Geothermal Gas CCGT Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates

14 Agenda 1. New energy drivers 2. Industry overview 3. Shell Renewables 4. Carbon Management 5. The solution?

15 Carbon constrained futures 1000 EJ Energy system mix 14 Carbon emissions billion tonnes carbon Hydrocarbons Renewables Hydro Nuclear Spirit of the Coming Age Dynamics as Usual Other

16 A global presence Renewables & Hydrogen: 1,400 employees 75 Countries Shell new energy portfolio also includes Biofuels Wind Parks Solar Manufacturing Solar Marketing Hydrogen lighthouse projects

17 Shell WindEnergy Inc. Rock River, 50MW Brazos, 160MW Whitewater Hill, Calif. 61MW Cabazon, Calif. 41MW Colorado Green, 162MW White Deer, 80MW Top of Iowa, 80MW Shell WindEnergy Inc owns/operates 634 MW (gross); Supplies ~2TWh of emission-free electricity: equivalent to 90% of the residential electrical demand of Wyoming.

18 Solar PV mainly crystalline today

19 Future rests with other technologies: CIS

20 Hydrogen how long is the road to competitiveness? System costs [$/kw] Stack costs 200 Total Electric propulsion system H 2 storage 50 Total Balance of Plant 0 Number of vehicles per year ICE competitive level K 30K 500K 5000K

21 Shell is putting theory into practice In safe operation for more than a year Planned for 06 Washington D.C. Los Angeles Planned for 06 New York State

22 Agenda 1. New energy drivers 2. Industry overview 3. Shell Renewables 4. Carbon Management 5. The solution?

23 There needs to be a steady Migration Pathway to CO 2 -Free H 2 CO2 Emissions H 2 from existing SMR H 2 from fossil feedstock w/ CO 2 Capture Storage H 2 from Renewables H 2 Ren s H 2 Production (t/d) H 2 +CCS H 2 + CO s < 10 years years >30-50 years Time from now

24 Carbon Management, A license for growth renewables sequestration trading alternatives ecbm efficiency It is all about having the experience & skills

25 Managing our growing carbon footprint Economics of sequestration don t add up - UNLESS you view it as an enabler for growth No sequestration = no chance to exploit unconventionals/coal Geological sequestration is possible without technology advances

26 Managing our growing carbon footprint Proving safe storage is the challenge Governments needs to clarify legal liabilities wrt storage Public understanding is low NGO s are ready to fill the gap if we don t It s time to get moving

27 Clean Power, C02 sequestration - Miller, Scotland

28 Agenda 1. New energy drivers 2. Industry overview 3. Shell Renewables 4. Carbon Management 5. The solution?

29 A Portfolio enabled by technology Liquid Natural Gas Hydrogen Developing tomorrow s hydrogen infrastructure. Gas to liquids Gas supply Bio-products One of the world s largest bio-fuel users today; Researching advanced bioproducts for tomorrow. Natural gas World leader in LNG; Making cleaner transport fuels with gas to liquids technology. Geological Co2 sequestration Partnering in research and development initiatives. Coal gasification Licensing advanced gasification technology. Solar Making the world s most energy efficient commercial solar panels. Wind Powering hundred of thousands of homes with Wind energy.

30 Shell supplies 10% of the worlds transport fuels with many delivery options Energy Sources Energy Carrier drive-train options Oil Gas Coal Biomass Conventional & advanced biofuels Partial Oxidation Syngas CO, H 2 Synthetic fuels Fischer Tropsch Liquid Fuels Conventional ICE Hybrid diesel Solar CCGT Wind Electricity Plug-In hybrid diesel/hcci Hydro Nuclear Shift Reaction Electric Vehicle Electrolysis Hydrogen FCV 177

31 The solution is the energy mix There is no single solution diversity of energy sources will increase, including other new energies like Hydrogen Renewables will be part of the solution costs will decrease, but stability, scale and new fast growth markets will determine pace of competitiveness All choices (including nuclear) need time to build So the time to make decisions is now not only for new renewables, but also traditional fuels.

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