CHAD Food Security Update October 2009

Transcription

1 Most farming areas are reporting rainfall deficits. The size of the area planted in grain and cash crops is down from last season. A prediction for end of season conditions for the 2009 rainy season indicates a mediocre to average harvests, depending on the farming area in question. Despite the generally satisfactory food security situation right now, with the harvest season just getting underway (Figure 1), food insecurity levels are expected to rise in rice farming, transhumant pastoral, agropastoral, and flood recession farming areas (plain areas planted in flood recession berbéré crops). Figure 1. Food security assessment for October 2009 Harvests of short cycle crops continue, driving down September prices from their previous high levels at the height of the hunger season on all major grain markets (N Djamena, Moundou, Sarh, Abéché, and Moussoro) monitored by FEWS NET. However, prices are still above the five year average, limiting food access for poor households. The current improvement in pastoral conditions is reflected in the good performance of dairy and slaughter animals and the favorable terms of trade for sheep/millet from the standpoint of pastoralists, strengthening their food access. However, poor pasture and water availability is causing animals in northern areas to head south earlier and faster than usual, beginning in September, compared with the usual start of seasonal Source: FEWS NET Chad Pour plus d informations sur l échelle d insécurité alimentaire de FEWS NET, visitez: migration in October/November in an average year. With harvests still in progress, this could rekindle disputes between farmers and pastoralists. Seasonal calendar and timeline of critical events timeline Source: FEWS NET Chad FEWS NET Chad N djamena Tel: (235) mfoye@fews.net FEWS NET Washington 1717 H St NW Washington DC info@fews.net FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.

2 Food security overview The food security situation is still generally satisfactory thanks to recent harvests of early crops and slowly expanding harvests of medium cycle crops. The gradual improvement in the physiological condition of the animals of transhumant pastoralists and agropastoralists is bolstering the availability of dairy products which, in turn, is improving the nutritional value of their diet while, at the same time, reducing pressure on limited grain supplies. Grain access on local markets has improved with supplies of fresh crops from recent harvests and the sale of 10,000 metric tons of grain, or half the national food security reserve, at subsidized prices as of the end of September of this year. Figure 2: Livelihood zone map of Chad However, the findings by the joint GTP/FEWS NET/SAP FAO/Government assessment mission conducted from September 11 th through September 22nd, and recent ground data are raising concerns over the outcome of the current agropastoral season. Cumulative rainfall totals in most farming areas were still belownormal as of the end of August. Lulls in rainfall activity triggering periods of drought between the third dekad of September and the beginning of October, during the flowering stage of late planted rainfed crops, resulted in losses of even more crops. Pastoral conditions are also deteriorating faster than usual, and the planting of off season crops has been delayed. In addition to reports of plant asphyxiation in depression areas of rice farming zones in late July due to heavy rains, emergent areas in this same livelihood zone faced shortages of irrigation water in early September, sharply reducing the size of areas ready for harvesting. As a result, poor households will need to step up their income diversification strategies, for which stable opportunities are still available. Source: FEWS NET Chad The erratic rainfall in transhumant pastoral zones across the Kanem region, northern Batha, and the Biltine region caused grass cover and surface water sources to dry up earlier than usual, interrupting the progress of return migration northwards and triggering earlier than usual migration southwards, which has been in progress since September instead of February/March, as is generally the case. The currently good performance by livestock is improving access to dairy products and grain, particularly for average to wealthy pastoralist households, thanks to favorable terms of trade in anticipation of the upcoming celebration of Tabaski and relatively well provisioned grain markets. However, the earlier than usual heavy concentrations of livestock in the central and southern reaches of the country, before the harvest is brought in, will spark disputes between farmers and pastoralists. The large range counts in these areas will quickly degrade pasturelands as of January, reducing milk and meat production by animals owned by poor households with limited access to animal feed and weakening the food security of this group of households between January and March. The dry spells reported in September in agropastoral zones caused the irreversible withering of crops in a number of areas, particularly in Guelendeng, Dougia, Dourbali Massakory, and Mandalia. Poor households in these areas, who meet 40 percent of their food needs by growing their own crops and earn close to 40 percent of their income from farmwork, for which job prospects are curtailed by this year s mediocre growing season, are facing a large food access gap. The limited impact of attempts to step up income generating activities such as the gathering of gum Arabic and firewood suggests the need for local workers to temporarily migrate to urban areas beginning in January as a way to meet household food needs. Right now, harvests of short and medium cycle crops in cotton Famine Early Warning Systems Networ k 2

3 and groundnut producing areas are driving down market prices. However, these early harvests are giving poor households coming out of a tough hunger season very little chance to rebuild their food reserves. Households are stepping up the gathering of firewood and wild plant products to be able to afford the continuing high prices of food crops compared with the nominal five year average. There is already an obvious shortfall in areas transplanted in flood recession berbéré crops for the 2009/10 offseason as a result of this year s rainfall deficit and the ensuing lower water levels in these plain areas compared with years of good rainfall. There was less flooding than usual in farming areas for berbéré crops, particularly in East Batha department, the Fitri area of West Batha department, and Salamat. The size of the area planted in berbéré crops will be sharply reduced, with yields in February/March expected to be mediocre. This will severely cut back off season grain production. In light of the foreseeable food security problems engendered by these conditions and this year s draw downs from the national food security reserve, at approximately 9,000 metric tons, the current level of the national food security reserve (compared with its 35,000 MT strategic level) is obviously insufficient to meet future needs. Grain procurements and a proportional increase in storage capacity are essential between now and December in order to take advantage of the lowest prices of the year. The joint FAO/CILSS/WFP/FEWS NET mission scheduled for the end of October should confirm the final performance data for rainfed crops. Seasonal progress Rainfall activity between June and September accounts for a large part of the country s yearly rainfall. With the rains ending by the second dekad of September in the Sahelian zone, this Figure 3. Satellite image of growing season is close to producing a deficit, even with weather forecasts for cumulative rainfall anomalies (RFE) the last dekad of the month putting the Inter Tropical Front (ITF) somewhere for the 2009 season as of the 3 rd around the 14th or 13th parallels of north latitude, with a likelihood of heavy dekad of September 2009, rainfall from isolated storms with local convections in areas [French text compared with the average th missing, could be either above or below] the 13 parallel. Though cumulative rainfall totals for the period between April and September 30 th are, for the most part, average to slightly below average in most parts of the country (Figure 3), according to reports by joint mid term assessment missions, rainfall conditions in all farming areas were marked by a poor spatial temporal distribution of rainfall. Figure 4, for example, shows rainfall deficits of approximately 10 to 20 percent in parts of cotton and groundnutproducing areas (in the far southern reaches of the country). Rainfall amounts in the Sudanian zone, which is reportedly the rainiest part of the country, for the months of July and August, which are the wettest months of the rainy season in the Sahel, are in the average range in the Figure, but below the historical average according to ground data. As a result, with most medium and long cycle crops in this part of the country showing less than optimum water requirement satisfaction indexes as of that date, their performance is bound to be less than satisfactory. Source: FEWS NET/USGS Though the effects of agro meteorological conditions can vary at ground level, in short, current harvest forecasts range from mediocre to average, depending on the area in question. Famine Early Warning Systems Networ k 3

4 The dry spells beginning in the 2nd dekad of September in transhumant pastoral and agropastoral zones caused fields of sorghum and millet crops in certain areas to wither, particularly in Guelendeng, Dourbali, and Mandalia, whose fields are completely withered, while most crops are in the headingflowering stage. Figure 4: Cumulative monthly rainfall totals for 2009, compared with the historical average With periods of drought and the poor distribution of rainfall causing planting failures and delays and stunting growth in all farming areas of the country, certain areas could be facing grain production deficits, particularly in those departments most affected by the erratic pattern of rainfall whose crops required several rounds of replanting before finally Source: DREM being well established in late July. The effects of this dislocation on the progress of the current agropastoral season are obvious, causing the first crops of the season (early groundnuts, short cycle sorghum, corn, etc.) to get to market later than usual. A look at plant health conditions across the country shows only localized, minor damage from crop pests and predators. Plant health conditions in the Sudanian zone are relatively stable, aside from grasshopper damage to rice crops in Moussafoyo (468 ha), and damage from elephants to crops in Sido (Moyen Chari), Baiboukoum (Eastern Logone), and Dodjée (500 ha). However, the Multidisciplinary Working Group (GTP) mission in the last dekad of September reported seeing signs of a large presence of grain eating birds in Hadjer Lamis and Guéra, while plant health products are selling at exorbitant prices and, in some cases, are nowhere to be found on local markets in affected areas. Most of these areas will have poor harvests due to poor rainfall conditions as much as to attacks by crop pests such as grasshoppers, beetles, and grain eating birds. According to NDVI imagery for the 3 rd dekad of September, vegetation in agropastoral areas is generally in average condition. The condition of pastureland in that same ten day period was below average in transhumant pastoral areas and the northern reaches of agropastoral areas, and average in the central reaches of the Sahelo Sudanian belt (Figure 5). This points to earlier than usual seasonal migration by transhumant herds southwards, leading to large concentrations of livestock in Sudanian areas. For lack of clearly marked corridors for herd movements or of any such migration corridors, these concentrations of animals in farming areas with crops still generally in the maturation process will trigger clashes between farmers and pastoralists. Figure 5. Satellite image of NDVI rd anomalies for the 3 dekad of September, compared with the 2001/08 average Update of the most likely scenario for October 2009 March 2010 In light of recent developments, the assumptions underlying the most likely scenario described in the September report, namely a normal distribution of rainfall vis à vis crop water requirements in farming areas, an extended rainy season, and an extension of government price controls, have clearly not materialized. Thus, the hypothetical list of events liable to change the food security outlook for the period from October to March is modified accordingly, as follows: Source: FEWS NET/USGS Famine Early Warning Systems Networ k 4

5 A nationwide grain production deficit, with large production shortfalls, particularly in the case of floodrecession sorghum crops in Salamat and Lake Fitri, and rainfed rice crops in the rice basin (Tandjile, Mayo Kebbi, Eastern Logone); Poor grazing conditions for the second consecutive year causing migratory animal herds to migrate south earlier than usual (beginning in September); A looming upturn in prices beginning in November/December; Current government policies waiving duties on certain imported foodstuffs, which could contain rises in grain prices; and Problems hampering the rebuilding of the national food security reserve (to 35,000 MT) due to local production deficits and possible pressure on grain supplies across the subregion. Agropastoral zone and rural N Djamena Given the current position of the Inter Tropical Front (ITF), the expected poor to average harvest of rainfed crops is likely to materialize. With harvests falling short of initial expectations, the moderate drop in prices at harvest time will be followed by an earlier than usual new upswing in prices. This could weaken food access in areas and for households with a limited capacity for stepping up income generating activities. Transhumant pastoral zone (Kanem Northern Batha Northern Biltine) There will be large scale crop production deficits and the already mediocre grazing conditions in these areas will rapidly deteriorate. With the combination of this and last year s poor pastoral conditions, the food security status of pastoralist households up until December will be average at best. Rainfed grain farming zone The erratic rainy season in rainfed grain farming areas triggered periods of drought and attacks by crop pests liable to produce a below average harvest. However, political accords and ongoing talks with the political and politicomilitary opposition are helping to stabilize security conditions, promising a smooth flow of trade within this area. Cash crop farming zone for cotton and groundnuts Medium cycle crops are nowhere near maturity, which rules out any possibility of a good grain harvest and successful season for cash crops. Prices have come down very little and will undoubtedly begin moving back upwards. Rice farming zone Monitoring data tracking the progress of the growing season points to a below average harvest with this year s shortened rainy season ending before crops were fully mature. The current immobility of the ITF at around the 13th parallel of north latitude is not improving matters. This could further reduce yields and, thus, production, keeping prices high. Flood recession farming zone The relatively heavy rains in August and early September were still insufficient to ensure adequate flood spreading in popular off season grain farming areas. There was less flooding than usual in farming areas for berbéré crops, particularly in the Fitri area in Western Batha and Salamat. Current forecasts are projecting a sharp reduction in the size of areas planted in berbéré crops and mediocre yields, resulting in a steep decline in off season grain production. Famine Early Warning Systems Networ k 5

6 Markets and trade Supplies improved on major markets across the country in September thanks to continuing harvests of short cycle crops and early harvests of medium cycle crops. Moreover, irreducible expenses associated with the start of the new school year are forcing farmers to sell part of their harvest earlier than usual in order to meet these financial needs. Social grain marketing programs for at risk population groups with price subsidies of more than 200 percent mounted by the government are helping to drive down market prices. All major markets are reacting to these supplies by cutting prices from their previous high levels at the height of the hunger season (see the price annex). However, the rather disturbing production forecast for the current agropastoral season is expected to keep prices comparatively high through the height of Figure 6: Terms of trade for pearl millet/sheep on the N Djamena market the harvest season. Thus, current market prices are still well above the five year average and, in some cases, are even outstripping 2004/5 prices, a year known for its record high grain prices on most markets tracked by FEWS NET. The heavy August rains improved pastoral conditions are further strengthened the physiological condition of small animals in September. Right now, a sustained demand for sheep for terminal fattening and slaughtering in anticipation of the upcoming celebration of Tabaski is propping up their market value on the N Djamena market. Prices for sheep rose 17 percent between July and September, in contrast to the reported drop of nearly 19 percent in the price of millet on the same market, during the same reference period, for a gain of 41 kg of millet per average sheep traded in terms of trade for pastoralists during this period. A comparison with the same time last year still shows advantageous terms of trade for pastoralists, with a gain of 25 kg in the grain equivalent compared with figures for September of last year. This improvement in terms of trade could be a boon for average to wealthy pastoralist households, whose relatively large animal herds are enabling them to partially rebuild their food reserves, taking advantage of currently low market prices for grain crops. This is helping to revive the practice of paying wages in kind, which is a crucial source of food access for poor pastoralist households hard hit by the severity of this year s hunger season. 0 P rix du mo ut o n Prix du mil(100kg) Kg du mil par mo ut o n 180 Sep- Oc t - Nov- Dec- Jan- Fev- Mar- Apr - May- Jun Jul- 09 Ao Seput Source: SIM/FEWS NET Chad Translation Notes: Prix du mouton Price of sheep; Prix du mil Price of millet; Kg du mil par mouton Kg of millet for sheep Famine Early Warning Systems Network 6

7 ANNEX: Chad Monthly Price Bulletin October 2009 Sorghum, millet, white maize, and local and imported rice are the most important food commodities. Millet is most heavily consumed in the eastern and northern regions of the country. Local rice is another basic food commodity, especially for poorer households. Imported rice and white maize are most commonly consumed in and around the capital. The Marché de Dembé in N Djamena, the capital city, is the largest market for cereals. Moundou is an important consumer center for sorghum and the second largest market after the capital. The Abéché market is located in a northern production area. The Sarh market is both a local retail market and a cross border market. Monthly prices are supplied by FEWS NET enumerators, local government agencies, market information systems, UN agencies, NGOs, and other network and private sector partners. Famine Early Warning Systems Network i

8 ANNEX: Chad Monthly Price Bulletin October 2009 Famine Early Warning Systems Network ii

9 ANNEX: Chad Monthly Price Bulletin October 2009 Famine Early Warning Systems Network iii