Climate change and food security in Central Asia

Transcription

1 Climate change and food security in Central Asia G. STULINA October 2009 The Scientific Information Centre of the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination (SIC ICWC) of Central Asia

2 Central Asia is region, where drought is routine condition of life and crop production and agricultural production are adopted to such enormous climatic conditions ЦЕНТРАЛЬНО-АЗИАТСКИЙ АЗИАТСКИЙ РЕГИОН

3 Natural drought MМ < > 800 W N S E The natural deficit of water as difference between precipitation and evaporation deviates from mm in area of ancient oasis and hillside up to mm in desert and steppe

4 Climate change Long-term changes of the annual sums of precipitations Regional indicators of change of a climate W N S E

5 Increase in mean annual air temperature during the period of instrumental measurements That of in Kazakhstan ( ) is 0.26 C/10 years; That of in Kyrgyzstan ( ) is 0.08 C/10 years; That of in Uzbekistan ( ) is 0.29 C/10 years; That of in Tajikistan ( ) is 0.10 С/10 years; That of in Turkmenistan ( ) is 0.18 С/10 years.

6 НаdCM2 and ЕСНАМ4 climate change modeling HadCM2 ECHAM HadCM2 HadCM2 ECHAM4 ECHAM JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN JAN JAN FEB FEB FEB MAR MAR MAR APR APR APR MAY MAY MAY JUN JUN JUN JUL JUL JUL AUG AUG AUG SEP SEP SEP OCT OCT OCT NOV NOV NOV DEC DEC DEC Model-expected changes in average monthly temperatures Model-expected changes in monthly precipitation. Temperature increase by 1-2 С will foster the process of glacier degradation

7 State of glaciers in the main mountain areas

8 Expected water resources change in main rivers of the Aral Sea basin under various climatic scenarios (% of basic norm) River Basic nom (km 3 /year) Regional by 2030 GFDL Climatic scenarios GISS UKMO CCCM SyrDarya 37, AmuDarya 78, River Basic nom Climatic scenarios (km 3 /year) ECHAM4 HadCM2 IS92ab SyrDarya 37, AmuDarya 78, In Central Asia, hydrological drought is a result of precipitation deficit in upper watershed and is aggravated by prevalent extremely dry meteorological conditions in flow spread zone. At present time, therefore, of great importance is the assessment of water changes in the region on the basis of developed climatic scenarios

9 Runoff from its formation zone for various scenarios of change in temperature and precipitation ( Uzhydromet) By 2050 volume of water resources will probably be reduced: for Amudarya river basin by 10 15% for Syrdarya river basin by 2 5% During extra scarcity years- by 25-40% Assessment of the main rivers runoff has been carried out by the model of mountain rivers runoff formation

10 км Суммарный сток Нарын, Карадарья, Чирчик Средний период повторения маловодья 4,25 года Средний уровень Extreme events occurrence Total Runoff of Naryn, Karadarya and Chirchik Rivers Frequency of dry year occurrence is 4.25 year on average Frequency of dry year occurrence is 3 year on average км Суммарный сток Нарын, Карадарья, Чирчик Средний период повторения маловодья 3 года Средний уровень

11 The modern civilization may either adapt to current and future weather conditions and climate changes or mitigate their negative impacts in any feasible way. At present, the task of limiting dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system is quite topical for policymakers.

12 Climate changes - is good or evil for the food productivity?

13 Impact of climatic factors Climatic parameters Impacts Air temperature Prolonged duration of growing season Earlier seeding dates Conditions favorable for germination, phenological phases, and growth Extremely high temperatures hampering physiological processes of plants Air humidity Rainfall Intensive evaporation Created conditions of moisture and heat exchange necessary for each individual crop Soil moisture and humidity create natural moistening and conditions for growing Storm rainfall may hamper sprouting and farm operations Temperature, humidity and rainfall In general, form crop evapotranspiration Change salinization processes + - СО2 concentratio Determine intensity of photosynthesis Form biomass and crops productivity + +

14 Изменение продолжительности периода вегетации хлопчатника (Среднего сорта) По прогнозу HadCM2 на уровень 2020 г Базовый Сев-всходы Всходы-бутонизация Бутонизация-цветение Цветение раскрытие 1-ых коробочек Раскрытие 1-ых коробочек созревание 70% коробочек Change of growing period

15 Change in vegetation cover early ripening variety Скороспелые сорта 50 Дни 0 Сев- Всходы- Базовый вариант Изменение Фенологическая фаза Base option Climate change Позднеспелые сорта late ripening variety Дни Base option Climate change 0 Сев-всходы Базовый вариант Изменение климата Фенологическая фаза Всходыбутонизация Бутонизация- Цветениераскрытие

16 date 24-Apr 14-Apr 4-Apr 25-Mar 15-Mar 5-Mar 24-Feb 14-Feb 4-Feb 25-Jan Tashkent average (ос) Ташкент Ср Ташкент 1 Карши Ср Карши Crossing over the Limits Established for Air Temperatures Ср present conditions, 1 under climate changes: using data of weather stations in Tashkent and Kashkadarya provinces)

17 Possible climate changes create favorable conditions for plant growth and development. It is forecasted that phenological phases and ripening periods will be reduced, while crop productivity will grow. The following increase in crop yields is expected: 11% - cotton; 7-15% - cereals; and, 10-15% - vegetables, melons and gourds.

18 However, achievement of this positive forecast is possible under high agronomic practices and availability of all necessary inputs, including water. Otherwise this positive potential will not be achieved. Besides, forecasted increment of days with extremely high temperatures may lead to plant stress under low water availability. Yield losses could be 9-15% for cotton and cereals, 10-20% for rice, and 10-50% for vegetables, melons and gourds

19 Climate impact Comparison of two climate change scenarios for Chirchik-Akhangaran-Keles basin

20 Principal directions of Climate changes program in Central Asia Public Awareness Adaptation

21 Flow Measurement

22 Soil moisture Data % control light film

23 Crop yield, maize 6 5,52 5, ,4 t/ha maize, cover light film, irrigation in each furrow maize, cover light film, alternate irrigation maize without film, irrigation in each furrow maize without film, alternate irrigation Plot5 Plot6 Plot7 Plot8

24 Improvement of water yield Inflow (growing season) Compared to control Crop yields Compared to control Water productivity Compared to control Irrigation method m3/ha % kg/ha % % Alternate furrow irrigation (film) Every furrow irrigation (film) Alternate furrow irrigation (control) Every furrow irrigation(control)

25 Training Seminar