International Research Center on El Niño CIIFEN

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International Research Center on El Niño CIIFEN www.ciifen.

1 International Research Center on El Niño CIIFEN GIS Technology for Making Decision in Agrometeorology: Early Warning Systems in Andean Region and its impacts in the agriculture development Diana Espinoza Ramirez

Its International Directory is compound by Spain Government, Ecuador Government, The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction

2 CIIFEN is a Nonprofit International Organization established in January 10 th 2003, as result of a process inside United Nations Office. Its International Directory is compound by Spain Government, Ecuador Government, The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) as observatory. MISION Promote and develop actions to consolidate the scientific-political interactions and the strength of hidroclimatic and oceanic services to contribute to risk management and adaptation 2

3 3

4 INAMEH VENEZUELA IDEAM COLOMBIA P R O D U C T S SENAMHI PERÚ DMC CHILE LOCAL SCALE SENAMHI BOLIVIA S E R V I C E S

members of a region to share better climatic services to national users.

5 WMO RCC are excellence centers dedicated to the creation of climatic regional products, including long term forecast in support of climatic activities at regional and national levels, contributing to strength the capacity of WMO members of a region to share better climatic services to national users. WMO Regional Climate Center for Western SouthAmerica RCC WMO RCC have a regional scope and do not replace or duplicate national responsibilities 5

6 ACMAD CIIFEN 6

Inside the continent is the Andean region, which consist of a mountain range with average height of 4000 meters, and is part

7 South America: Andean region South America is a region with a marked diversity in cultural, social, demographic, and economic aspects. Inside the continent is the Andean region, which consist of a mountain range with average height of 4000 meters, and is part of the territories of Argentina, Chile, Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela. The main activity of this region is agriculture, with production of cereals (quinoa, oats, rice), potatoes in varies varieties, vegetables and grains.

8 The region is threatened by climatic extremes that causes losses in agricultural production. The most common climatic extremes are sudden decreases in temperature, extreme precipitation that causes floods and droughts, this events are increase due to El Niño event.

9 But it s not the only affectation in the agriculture CLIMATIC INFORMATION ABSENCE PESTS AND DISEASES INCREASED EXCESIVE USE OF PESTICIDES PUBLIC POLITICS ECOSISTEMS AND WATERSHEDS CONDITIONS VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR MARKETS LIMITED GENETIC INVESTIGATION WATER USE CONFLICTS SOIL DEGRADATION LIMITED TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER

10 How can we manage this information in order to contribute to agriculture development? Previous knowledge of crop conditions Water requirements in diferent crop phases Irrigations access Vulnerability analysis Socioeconomic and biofisic vulnerability Crop Monitoring Crop localization Phenological Phases Hidroclimatic and Vegetacion Monitoring Hidroclimatic parameters Vegetation Indexs

Vulnerability analysis and Agriculture risk Soil Saturation Agricultural suitability Erosion Vulnerability analysis focused on crops considerer the characteristic on crops that make increase its

11 Vulnerability analysis and Agriculture risk Soil Saturation Agricultural suitability Erosion Vulnerability analysis focused on crops considerer the characteristic on crops that make increase its vulnerability or in the same conditions help the crops to cape and adapt. Climatic classification Vulnerability Water stress To estimate the vulnerability this characteristics were considered in a GIS model, using shape layers and mathematic expressions. Temperature Access to water for irrigations Infiltration Recorded Precipitation deficit

12 Agiculture Risk Estimation in the Andean Region of Ecuador: Droughts, Frost and other Climate Change Impacts Metodology Drought Trend Meteorological Stations Rclimdex Modelling Climatic trends Indexs Frost Trend Vulnerability Climate Threats Maps Vulnerability Maps Agriculture Risk Map Droughts Frost

13 Vulne agr (frost) = AgSuit + ClimaClass + SoilSat + Eros + AccWatIrr + Temp

14 Vulne agr (Drought) = AgSuit + Eros + WatStre + AccWatIrr+ RecPrecDef+ Infiltr

15 Vulnerability Maps

16 Agriculture Risk Maps

Early Warning Systems and climatic information Vulnerability analysis, crop information and

personnel analyze information This platform is part of an Early Warning System in the Jubones basin

meteorological, hydrological and vulnerability information.

receive information The objective of this system is provide information to local farmers in the

17 Early Warning Systems and climatic information Vulnerability analysis, crop information and climatic, agroclimatic and meteorological monitoring can be included in a cartographic platform for stakeholders and policy makers. Platform Climatic, Agroclimatic and meterological monitoring Vulnerability and risk maps Qualified personnel analyze information This platform is part of an Early Warning System in the Jubones basin (Andean Region Ecuador) in which the technical personnel elaborate bulletins based on the meteorological, hydrological and vulnerability information. (FORECCSA Project) Committe decide to emit food security bulletin Local farmers and communities receive information The objective of this system is provide information to local farmers in the region, so they would be able to protect their crops against a flooding, frost, or drought in long term and contribute to the food security in the region. Communities develop actions in the territory Link:

Other resources in the region: Drought Monitoring Joint research Centre of the European Commission (JRC) operate an map server online to analyze and map geographic information, which describes

20 Other resources in the region: Drought Monitoring Joint research Centre of the European Commission (JRC) operate an map server online to analyze and map geographic information, which describes drought phenomenon and desertification process in South America The applications manage data in real time, previsions and historic data for describing drought. Actually JRC is transferring the application to CIIFEN server, with this resources: Monthly accumulate precipitation Standardized Precipitation Index SPI station forecast Soil Humidity Soil Humidity anomalies

21 CIIFEN and FAO are preparing an agreement for monitoring Drought using the Agriculture Stress Index (ASI). This index uses satellite data for detecting agriculture zona with high probability of suffer hydric stress worldwide. ASIS produce a map each 10 days, and shows hot-spots worldwide where exist water stress during a crop period. The main idea of the application is simulate the analysis of a remote sensing professional would do and simplify the result using maps for final users. ASIS database contains 30 years of hot-spots since FAO developed a regional version for drought monitoring in countries scale. This version needs to be calibrated with local agriculture statistics. For enhance the correlations between ASIS and agriculture performance, the land use maps for each region are needed. This version is useful in drought risk reduction and local planning.

22 Crop Monitoring: Limitations in the region Meteorological Stations are spread over the territory and contain discontinuous series. Estimated precipitations show mistakes on their estimations and exist deviations in different regions (Dinku et al. 2007, Lim and Ho 2000) Limitations on the spatial crop distribution determinations, in order to elaborate a mask for crop monitoring. (Land use maps with low resolution) CROP MONITORING LIMITATIONS AND AGRICULTURE MANAGEMENT Actually in the region it s not available a crop map that allows algorithms applications related to its phenological phases and hydric requirements

23 International Research Center on El Niño CIIFEN Thanks for your attention!! Muchas gracias!

The Means of Achieving Better Recognition of the Value And Benefits of Climate Forecasts and Agrometeorological Information Disseminated to Users

The Means of Achieving Better Recognition of the Value And Benefits of Climate Forecasts and Agrometeorological Information Disseminated to Users B. Chipindu Abstract Climate forecasts and agrometeorological