Climate Change and Global Food Security

Transcription

1 Climate Change and Global Food Security Philip Pardey Mark Seeley University of Minnesota The 25th Anniversary Nobel Peace Prize Forum March 9, 2013 Minneapolis, MN

2 Climate and Agriculture Climate matters through interactions with the Location of production Timing of production Other production choices of farmers Outputs Inputs Technology (research and development, R&D) 2

3 Long-term World Population 10,000 BC to billion billion billion Billions billion Eve of Green Revolution ,000 BC 1-10 million Invention of agriculture Hybrid corn 0-10, BC Source: United Nations (n.d. and 2012)

4 A Truly Dismal Tally Poverty (Developing world population living below $1.25 per day, 2005 PPP) 1981 : 52.2% (1.94 billion) 2008 : 22.4% (1.29 billion, around 70% live in rural areas) Malnutrition (In the developing world) : 26% undernourished (878 million) : 13% undernourished (850 million) (worldwide 1.4 billion overweight in 2008, doubled since 1980) Source: Chen and Ravallion (2012), FAO (2012), IFAD (2010) and WHO (2013)

5 Agricultural Land, Production & Population Population 3.1 bil Ag Land 4.5 bil ha VOP $746 bil billion Arable & permanent cropland (right-hand axis) Agricultural area Population VOP trillion international $ Population 6.8 bil Ag Land 4.9 bil ha VOP $2.26 tril billion Arable & permanent cropland 2009 (right-hand axis) Agricultural area Population VOP trillion international $

6 Global Crop Yields Averages, (beta) 6 Yield (MT/Ha.) Maize Wheat Rice Soybeans Millet Barley Maize Millet Rice, paddy Soybeans Wheat Source: Pardey et al. (forthcoming)

7 National Trends, Corn Production Bushels (millio Bushels (million) Acres (millions) Acres (million) Year Year Yield (Bu/Ac) Yield (bu/ac) Source: Created using data from USDA-NASS (2011) Year 7

8 Climate Changes but Agriculture also Moves

9 Source: Beddow and Pardey (2013) U.S. Corn Shares by County

10 Source: Beddow and Pardey (2013) U.S. Corn Shares by County

11 Change in the Area Centroid: Net Movement: West: 343 km North: 278 km Total: 441 km Source: Beddow and Pardey (2013)

12 Global Cropland Centroid Movements: Source: Beddow et al. (2012) using data described in Ramankutty and Foley (1999).

13 Location, Climate and Other Agricultural Inputs

14 Corn Technology Adoption in the US Yield (bu/ac) Source: Beddow and Pardey (2013)

15 100 Corn Technology Adoption in the US Adoption (percent of acres) Nitrogen (adoption) Herbicide (adoption) Yield (bu/ac) Source: Beddow and Pardey (2013)

16 Location, Climate and Crop Yields Farmers change what they grow, when, where and how in response to changes in climate, technology, and markets (careful of the dumb farmer assumption) Crops move Spatial reallocation accounts for about percent of the increase in U.S. corn output since 1909 U.S. corn is now grown in a climate that is 0.8 to 4.5 o C colder than in 1909 had it not moved (depending on the month)

17 Climate and Crop Pests

18 Wheat Rusts!

19 U.S. Wheat Losses Attributed to Stem Rust, 1918 to 2010 Source: Pardey et al. (2013)

20 Climate and Stem Rust Dry Stress Cold Stress Heat Stress Hot-Wet Stress Source: Beddow et al. (2013)

21 Global Occurrence and Persistence of Stem Rust Source: Pardey et al. (2013)

22 The Status of the Agricultural Sciences Globally

23 Global Public Agricultural R&D Pie, 1960 and 2009 Brazil 3% Other Asia&Pacific 5% Other LAC 7% India 2% 13% China 12% SSA 9% MENA 3% USA 22% 21% Other High Income 37% 1960 $5.5 billion (2005 PPP) Other LAC Brazil 5% 5% SSA 6% MENA 5% USA 14% 13% 2009 $33.5 billion (2005 PPP) 6% Other Asia&Pacific 5% India 6% Source: Pardey et al. (2013) China 19% Other High Income 35%

24 Top 10 Countries Country Country million 2005 PPP$ million 2005 PPP$ United States 1,214 China 5,767 China 433 United States 4,446 Germany 378 Japan 3,202 United Kingdom 294 India 1,837 Japan 290 Brazil 1,480 Canada 224 Germany 969 South Africa 205 Canada 872 Australia 161 France 868 Argentina 137 Spain 793 Brazil 135 South Korea 792 Source: Pardey et al. (2013)

25 Slowing Growth in U.S. Agricultural R&D Spending Percent per year (2009 prices) s s s Source: Pardey et al. (2013)

26 CGIAR IFPRI Food policy Washington, D.C., USA CIMMYT Maize and wheat Mexico City, Mexico IPGRI Agricultural biodiversity Rome, Italy WARDA Rice in West Africa Bouaké, Côte d Ivoire ICARDA Agriculture in the dry areas Aleppo, Syria ICRISAT Semi-arid tropical agriculture Patancheru, India ICLARM Fisheries Penang, Malaysia CIAT Tropical agriculture Cali, Colombia IRRI Rice Los Baños, Philippines CIP Roots and tubers Lima, Peru IITA Tropical agriculture Ibadan, Nigeria ICRAF Agroforestry and ILRI Livestock Nairobi,Kenya IWMI Water resources Colombo, Sri Lanka CIFOR Forestry Bogor, Indonesia CGIAR 15 Future Harvest research centers supported by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR).

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28 Saving Seeds (in Genebanks) Corn CYMMIT, El Batan, Mexico Cow Peas IITA, Ibadan, Nigeria Cassava-- In Vitro Tissue Culture Collection at CIAT, Cali, Colombia Rice Active Collection at IRRI, Los Baños Philippines

29 Punch Line(s) Assuring affordable access to food is still a big problem Adapting to climate (and other, e.g., economic) change is a big challenge Investment in science is critical to dealing with climate change Decisions taken now affect agriculture for decades to come

30 The People Most Affected

31 Thank You!