Value of soil moisture for climate assessment reports
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1 Value of soil moisture for climate assessment reports Heidi Mittelbach, M. Hirschi, B. Mueller, N. Nicolai-Shaw, B. Orlowsky, and S.I. Seneviratne Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Switzerland CCI Collocation Meeting Frascati, Italy, 4-6 February 2014 Heidi Mittelbach / IAC ETH Zurich Heidi Mittelbach
2 Outline Introduction Soil moisture-temperature coupling Spatial variability and representativeness Climate change and drought projections Conclusions and Challenges for time series Heidi Mittelbach / IAC ETH Zurich
3 Introduction Water Energy Carbon P E Rn le H A E=60%P le=50-60%rn A is a sink for 25-30% of C emissions S.I. Seneviratne (ETH Zurich) Heidi Mittelbach / IAC ETH Zurich
4 Introduction evaporative fraction Seneviratne et al. (2010), Earth Science Review; see also Budyko (1956) Soil moisture as a driver for climate variability and extremes events in transitional zones Heidi Mittelbach / IAC ETH Zurich
5 Soil moisture-temperature coupling Soil moisture and its impact on regional climate projections SCEN ( ) SCEN uncoupled ( ) σt 2m (K) Seneviratne et al. (2006), Nature Decrease in variability of temperature when effect of soil moisture is removed Heidi Mittelbach / IAC ETH Zurich
6 Soil moisture-temperature coupling Hot spots of soil moisture-temperature coupling Koster et al (2006), J. Hydromet. Hatched areas significant at 90% level Mueller and Seneviratne (2012), PNAS Based on reanalyses and observations (ERA-Interim, CRU) Relation between number of hot days NHD and preceding drought condition (SPI) Hottest month of each year, i.e. not only NH summer, for Heidi Mittelbach / IAC ETH Zurich
7 Soil moisture-temperature coupling Upper tail of NHD distribution is more strongly affected by surface wetness conditions Asymmetrical impact of SPI on NHD Mueller and Seneviratne (2012), PNAS Heidi Mittelbach / IAC ETH Zurich
8 Soil moisture-temperature coupling Follow-up study by Hirschi et al. using CCI soil moisture data set Can CCI soil moisture data set represent the hot spots for soil moisture-temperature coupling? Is the strength of coupling comparable? Heidi Mittelbach / IAC ETH Zurich
9 Soil moisture-temperature coupling SPI (PNAS) CCI SSM anomaly Hirschi et al. (submitted) Spatial patterns are comparable, but coupling is less strong ρ(rs SSM anomalies-nhd) ρ(spi NHD) Heidi Mittelbach / IAC ETH Zurich
10 Soil moisture-temperature coupling Time series Less temporal variability in CCI soil moisture Pronounced anomalies not captured well Data gaps Hirschi et al. (submitted) Heidi Mittelbach / IAC ETH Zurich
11 Soil moisture-temperature coupling Strong coupling between surface and root zone soil moisture Comparison of temporal variability for different moisture conditions absolute values anomalies variability (m 3 /m 3 ) variability (m 3 /m 3 ) dry conditions all conditions dry conditions all conditions Hirschi et al. (submitted) Surface soil moisture shows reduced surface-layer variability for dry conditions than root zone soil moisture Heidi Mittelbach / IAC ETH Zurich
12 Spatial variability and representativness SwissSMEX network (ETH Zurich, MeteoSwiss, Agroscope) 350 km (mm) Decomposition in time-invariant and time-varying components Mittelbach and Seneviratne (2012), HESS Heidi Mittelbach / IAC ETH Zurich
13 Spatial variability and representativness SwissSMEX network (ETH Zurich, MeteoSwiss, Agroscope) 350 km (mm) Decomposition in time-invariant and time-varying components (mm) (mm) Soil moisture dynamics display regional scale signal Mittelbach and Seneviratne (2012), HESS Heidi Mittelbach / IAC ETH Zurich
14 Spatial variability and representativness Role of land cover under present climate Grassland and forest sites from the SwissSMEX soil moisture network Heidi Mittelbach / IAC ETH Zurich
15 Spatial variability and representativness Role of land cover under present climate Non-systematic differences Phenology and rooting depth important for soil moisture-atmosphere dynamics under present climate Mittelbach et al. (in preparation) Improvement of information on surface and root zone soil moisture over dense vegetation Further investigations of impact on biochemical cycles Heidi Mittelbach / IAC ETH Zurich
16 Spatial variability and representativness Spatial representativness of soil moisture Surrounding area of a site exhibit similarity to other sites - definition of convex hull (Orlowsky and Seneviratne, in press) Absolute soil moisture representativeness high ISMN in situ CCI ECVSM low ERA land Nicolai-Shaw et al. (in preparation) Heidi Mittelbach / IAC ETH Zurich
17 Spatial variability and representativness Interannual anomalies of soil moisture representativeness high ISMN in situ CCI ECVSM Limitations of different soil moisture products? low ERA land Nicolai-Shaw et al. (in preparation) Heidi Mittelbach / IAC ETH Zurich
18 Climate change drought projections Indices for drought projection Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) Soil moisture anomalies Drought definition is critical choice of index IPCC SREX Chapter 3; Seneviratne et al. (2012) Heidi Mittelbach / IAC ETH Zurich
19 Climate change drought projections Uncertainties vs. detectable signal soil moisture droughts Orlowsky and Seneviratne (2012), HESS Heidi Mittelbach / IAC ETH Zurich
20 Climate change drought projections Uncertainties vs. detectable signal soil moisture droughts warm spells Observations are crucial to improve and evaluate GCMs and to reduce uncertainties of projections Orlowsky and Seneviratne (2012), HESS Heidi Mittelbach / IAC ETH Zurich
21 Conclusions Long-term and large-scale soil moisture observations are crucial to Further investigate soil moisture-temperature and soil moistureprecipitation couplings Improve (sub-)seasonal forecast Evaluate climate models and reduce uncertainties in projections Analyses of trends Investigate the link between water, energy and biochemical cycles Remotely sensed soil moisture is not perfect, but often the only observational data set on global scale Heidi Mittelbach / IAC ETH Zurich
22 Challenges Challenges for soil moisture time series Continuous time series with global coverage Information over different vegetation, topography, high latitudes Information on surface and root zone soil moisture Timing of overpass for CCI phase2: Consistency between ESA CCI data sets Interdisciplinary research at the interface between water, energy and biochemical cycle Heidi Mittelbach / IAC ETH Zurich
23 Thanks Heidi Mittelbach / IAC ETH Zurich
24 Soil moisture-temperature coupling Surface soil moisture (CCI) vs. root zone (SPI) Comparison of temporal variability for different moisture conditions select according to surfacelayer conditions surface soil moisture 5 cm time [m 3 /m 3 ] q 1 q q all conditions dry conditions root-zone soil moisture max. 0.9 m 0.6 [m 3 /m 3 ] select same time steps from root zone 0.0 Hirschi et al. (submitted) Heidi Mittelbach / IAC ETH Zurich
25 Soil moisture-temperature coupling Area surrounding a station in which other stations exhibit similarity above pre-defined cutoff definition of convex hull area = footprint of station Similarity here rank-based correlation Applied to grid boxes accordingly (Orlowsky and Seneviratne, in press) Heidi Mittelbach / IAC ETH Zurich
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