RE: BRES Criteria - Support of Existing and Planned Commercial Areas in Bolton

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1 January 24, 2016 Karen Bennett, MCIP, RPP, Assciate Glen Schnarr & Assciates Inc. 10 Kingsbridge Garden Circle, Ste.700 Mississauga, ON, L5R 3K6 Dear Ms Bennett: RE: BRES Criteria - Supprt f Existing and Planned Cmmercial Areas in Bltn urbanmetrics has been retained as the ecnmic cnsultants representing the Optin 3 Landwner Grup in cnnectin with the Bltn Residential Expansin Study (BRES). This letter has been prepared in cnnectin with the Regin f Peel`s Request fr Cmments related t the prpsed amendment t the Regin f Peel`s Official Plan fr the bundary expansin t the Bltn Rural Service Centre. We have reviewed the dcuments which led t the recmmendatin f Optin 3 and the 3 Runding Out areas as the preferred ptin fr residential expansin in Bltn, in particular the June 21, 2013 Cnsultants Recmmendatins Reprt and the June 25, 2013 Presentatin f this reprt. In ur pinin, the reprt was undertaken in a fully prfessinal, lgical and cmprehensive manner. While we supprt the recmmendatins f this reprt, we have reviewed the Criterin addressing the impact n existing and planned cmmercial areas in Bltn in mre detail in ur capacity as lngstanding experts in the field f retail develpment. In this capacity, urbanmetrics has prvided a brief review and cmmentary with regards t the Cmmercial Impact Criterin ne f 10 criteria used by Meridian Planning t evaluate the 6 Bltn Residential Settlement Optins. Backgrund As stated in the June 21, 2013 Cnsultant Recmmendatins Reprt and the June 25, 2013 Presentatin, the Retail Impact Criterin is used t evaluate each ptin by measuring that: The lcatin f the expansin area will supprt the planned functin f existing and already planned cmmercial areas in Bltn. The specific factrs cnsidered by the cnsultants in applying this criterin were: Lcatin in relatin t existing cmmercial areas; and, Ptential need fr cmmercial uses in expansin areas. 1

2 Significantly higher weight was attached t the first factr. As elabrated in the June 21, 2013 Reprt: ``the greater the ptential fr new residents in the expansin area t ptentially supprt existing cmmercial uses based n the lcatin the higher the scre In cnsidering this criterin, we have reviewed the fllwing dcuments: The June 21, 2013 Cnsultant Recmmendatins Reprt and the June 25 PwerPint Presentatin by Meridian Cnsultants; The May 30, 2014 Retail Market Demand Analysis fr 2031, Bltn, Ontari, May 30, 2014 by Kircher Research The relevant Bltn Residential Expansin dcuments cntained n the Twn`s website, including the, Octber 2014 Planning Justificatin Reprt. Overall Meridian Planning Cnsultants, after a review f the 10 criteria, gave the highest scre t Optin 3 based n a detailed assessment and weighting f each factr. With regards specifically t the Retail Impact Criterin, the cnsultants scred Optin 3, ahead f Optin 6, equal t Optins 4 and 5, but behind Optins 1 and 2. The ratinale was that Optins 1 and 2 wuld be nrth f the existing cmmercial areas in Bltn and, wuld therefre, naturally gravitate t the Bltn Cre and the Bltn Cmmercial Areas n Highway 50. The ther fur Optins are further suth and, presumably wuld be mre dependent n the cmmercial areas in Bramptn. Optin 6, being the furthest suth, wuld be mst susceptible t the pull frm Bramptn. urbanmetrics Cmmentary While there is sme lgic t the Meridian evaluatin, it lacks sme detail that might therwise have scred Optin 3 n equal r better terms than the ther ptins. Regardless f the settlement ptin, the future ppulatin in Bltn t 2031 wuld be rughly the same i.e. between abut 10,000 t 13,000 new residents, mstly cncentrated in ne f the 6 new settlement area ptins. This ppulatin wuld typically supprt a supermarket anchred neighburhd shpping centre and tw t three cnvenience shpping areas. In ur pinin, it wuld be desirable t lcate these uses within the new settlement area t prmte walkability and t supprt the ideals f a cmplete cmmunity. Based n typical stre and shpping centre mduals, these uses wuld ccupy apprximately 100,000 t 150,000 square feet. In additin, t these lcal serving retail facilities, the new ppulatin wuld require additinal reginal/district level retail uses and a small amunt f highway cmmercial space (e.g. fr gas statins and autmtive uses), which wuld likely lcate n higher rder arterial rads, such as Highway 50 and wuld nt necessarily lcate in the immediate prximity f the new settlement area. The Kircher Study, which cnsidered nly Optins 1 and 3, has identified a need fr sme 656,000 square feet t supprt the new ppulatin. This was reduced t 576,000 t accunt fr the grwth in internet shpping. This study was based n a grwth f 12,600 persns the bulk f which wuld be in ne f these new settlement areas. He assumed that sme 350,000 square feet wuld lcate within the preferred settlement area, with the balance t lcate in the existing Highway 50 Crridr. 2

3 In ur pinin, the Kircher study has verestimated the future cmmercial space that wuld be required t serve the new ppulatin wing t his assumptin that inflw percent rates will cntinue t be exceptinally high in the future and because the study did nt accunt fr any utflw f expenditures frm the Bltn market. In ur pinin, inflw n a percentage basis, will likely decline as the areas surrunding Bltn develp and build their wn cmmercial infrastructures. Furthermre, there is cnsiderable utflw in certain categries wing t the lack f large scale reginal shpping facilities in Bltn that are currently fund t the suth in Bramptn and t the east in Vaughan. Regardless f the Optin selected, this utflw wuld ccur simply because Bltn des nt have the size t supprt the full range f retail facilities required by an urban ppulatin. In ur pinin, Optin 3, wuld be cnsiderably less likely than Optin 1 t supprt as much as 350,000 square feet f cmmercial space within its cnfines, wing t its lcatin n King Street and nt n Highway 50. Optin 1, which straddles Highway 50, n the ther hand, wuld be much mre likely t supprt larger scale and higher rder retailing that wuld cmpete directly with ther Bltn retailers thereby reducing the ability f the existing cmmercial areas t attract the expenditures frm the new residential grwth areas. In ther wrds, Optin 1 wuld likely result in pressure fr a new large scale nde t the nrth, rather than allwing existing cmmercial areas t reach their full ptential. Optins 1, 2 and 3 wuld als supprt the newly designated supermarket site nrth f the dwntwn. Owing t their clser prximity t this site, Optin 1 and 2 residents wuld likely patrnize this facility t a greater extent than Optin 3 residents. In examining, the base infrmatin cntained in the Kircher study, as well as, ur wn knwledge f the Bltn Cmmercial market, we wuld cnclude that there is still cnsiderable capacity t accmmdate cmmercial space in the existing cmmercial areas. The study identifies a ttal f 136,700 square feet f vacant space in Bltn, representing a vacancy rate f sme 8.2%, which is abve nrmal levels. In additin, there are als a number f vacant cmmercial sites alng Highway 50, including the 13 acre vacant site that had been prpsed fr a 125,000 square ft Lblaws stre. In ur pinin, the Phase 3 Optin wuld mre likely cntain primarily lcal serving cmmercial uses, thus allwing fr the existing cmmercial areas in Bltn t serve the new demand fr higher rder retail space. Optins, 2, 4 and 5 wuld likely be similar t Optin 3 in this regard i.e. they wuld likely cntain lcal riented cmmercial, with the demand fr higher rder retailing available t the existing cmmercial areas in Bltn. The advantage Optin 3 wuld have is that, as a ptential future GO Transit statin lcatin, it culd be develped with a transit riented cmmercial nde as an exciting fcal pint fr the new cmmunity. The ther ptins wuld mre likely be develped with mre traditinal retail facilities. The Optin 6 lands, situated within the suthernmst end f Bltn, wuld have a much strnger rientatin t the existing and future cmmercial facilities in Bramptn than the ther ptins, particularly fr persn wh wuld be living in the suth end f these lands. 3

4 As nted in the Kircher study, Bltn is well represented in terms f large frmat retail utlets fr a cmmunity f its size. The additinal ppulatin attracted by any f the ptins will nt be sufficient t significantly increase the attractiveness f Bltn fr many retailers and uses nt already represented lcally (e.g. Cstc, Ikea, majr department stres, high-end fashin retail chains, reginal pwer centres, and enclsed reginal shpping centres). As a result, regardless f the ptin, there will still be utflw frm the cmmunity t access these facilities, which are fund in the adjacent cmmunities f Bramptn and Vaughan. In cnclusin, Optin 3 wuld scre marginally higher under this Criterin than Optins 2, 4 and 5 wing t the ability t establish a cmmunity cmmercial fcal pint arund the future GO Transit Statin. It wuld scre cnsiderably better than Optin 1 in terms allwing future demand t be captured by the existing Bltn cmmercial areas, and better than Optin 6 in terms f limiting the utflw expenditures by lcal residents frm Bltn. Mdificatins t Cnsultants Scring f Cmmercial Impact Criterin In the fllwing table, we have mdified the scring emplyed by Meridian Planning in the evaluatin f the Cmmercial Impact criterin. The mdified scring reflects the abve cmments. The table reflects the Meridian Planning evaluatin in all respects, with the exceptin f the ranking f the individual factrs. The number f factrs and the level f imprtance f each factr has been maintained. The maximum scre fr the factr remains at 36, which is cnsistent with the lw weight applied t this criterin. Under the first factr which addresses the ability f the expansin area t supprt existing cmmercial uses, Optin 3 scred the highest wing t the likelihd f its maintaining predminantly lcal serving uses and its ability t establish a lcal hub arund the transit statin. Optins 1, 2 and 5 als scre relatively high wing t the fact that they will likely prvide nly lcal retail pprtunities. Optin 1 scres lwer, as it has the ptential t anchr a new large cmmercial nde n Highway 50, althugh it wuld be in the best psitin t supprt the newly designated supermarket anchr in Nrth Bltn. Optin 6 scres the lwest as it wuld be strngly riented t Bramptn and wuld nt supprt Bltn retailers t the extent as the mre nrtherly ptins. In terms f the secnd factr, Optin 1 scres the lwest, wing t its lcatin n Highway 50 and the ptential t develp a large scale nde n Highway 50 t cmpete with the dwntwn and Suth Hill. The remaining Optins are scred high, as they wuld be mre likely t cntain predminantly lcal serving retail uses wing t their lcatins away frm majr cmmercial arteries. The Meridian ranking is nt t dissimilar frm this, with the exceptin that verall Optin 1 was ranked higher and Optin 3 was ranked lwer. In ur pinin, the lcatin f Optin 1 n Highway 50 makes it likely that it will supprt cnsiderably mre retail space than the ther Optins, thereby, reducing its ability t generate sales fr existing retail areas in Bltn. Furthermre, in ur pinin, the ability t create a cmmunity/cmmercial nde arund the GO transit statin is an pprtunity nt available t the ther Optins. 4

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6 If yu have any questins regarding ur analysis, please d nt hesitate t cntact me Yurs truly, urbanmetrics inc. Rwan Faludi, MCIP, RPP, CMC, PLE, Partner 6