Latin-American LNG markets

Transcription

1 Latin-American LNG markets Javier Diaz, Manager, Energy Analysis & Consulting S&P Global Platts Platts 16th Annual Liquefied Natural Gas February 9-1, 217 * Houston, Texas Copyright 217 S&P Global.

2 Natural Gas Key Takeaways Regional demand driven by power generation requirements. Natural gas based power used to supplement intermittent renewable energy sources US Exports to Mexico will grow to over 6 Bcf/d by 221 Precipitation based volatility in the Brazilian Market, LNG imports to remain steady despite associated pre-salt gas production growth Argentinean production growth low despite incentives to production, shale gas production will take time to develop, initial focus in tight gas, potential for a third LNG terminal Bolivian pipeline exports remain a cheaper alternative to LNG for Argentina And Brazil Chile: Third LNG Terminal Penco Lirquen environmental permit revoked, production development in Magallanes Challenge: How to attract investment in order to develop domestic production 2

3 Mexico Mexico - US pipeline gas displacing LNG Private & Confidential 3

4 Bcf/d Mbd Rigs Natural Gas Mexican Oil and Gas Production Continues Down Natural gas production declining faster than oil Mexican Gas vs. Crude Oil Regional Distribution of Rigs Northern Region Southern Region Dry Gas Production Crude Oil production Northeastern Marine Region Southwestern Marine region Source: S&P Global Platts Analytics, SENER 4

5 MWh GW New builds per year Total Installation GW Mexico Rapidly Expanding Gas-fired Power Most of the growth coming from Northwest and Central regions of Mexico Mexico Generation Capacity 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Gas Fuel Oil Coal Water Geothermal Wind Solar Nuclear Mexico Power Plant Buildout Northwest North Northeast Central BC Peninsula South South Pacific West Other Total Capacity Private & Confidential 5

6 Bcf/d Natural Gas Mexico Natural Gas Pipeline System Expanding $16.1 billion of new Mexican natural gas pipelines under construction 3.1 Bcf/d 3.5 Bcf/d Pipeline Expansions by Region Northeast Northwest North Central West South Central Gulf Southwest Southeast 6.6 Bcf/d of new border pipe 16.5 Bcf/d new Mexican pipe Half in Northwestern Mexico Two new north-to-south pipes Source: S&P Global Platts Analytics 6

7 Natural Gas Massive Pipeline Buildout Underway Gas Pipeline Expansions Targeting Demand Source: Platts Analytics Bentek Private & Confidential 7

8 Bcf/d $/MMBtu Bcf/d Natural Gas Mexican LNG Imports Remain Robust Manzanillo currently importing near capacity, suggesting Southern supply constraint Mexico LNG Imports Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 5 Year Range Year Avg 216 Manzanillo LNG Imports Opportunity Costs of Shipping to Manzanillo Peru LNG Netback (Deliver to Manzanillo) Peru LNG Netback (Deliver to Japan).2. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 4 Year Range Year Average 216 Peru contract renegotiation in place Private & Confidential 8 Source: SENER, Platts Analytics Bentek, Platts Analytics Eclipse

9 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Bcf Natural Gas 216 Manzanillo Imports by Export Country Panama Canal Expansion USA Trinidad and Tobago Peru Nigeria Equatorial Guinea Brazil Australia Algeria Private & Confidential 9

10 1/1/21 8/1/21 3/1/211 1/1/211 5/1/212 12/1/212 7/1/213 2/1/214 9/1/214 4/1/215 11/1/215 6/1/216 1/1/217 8/1/217 3/1/218 1/1/218 5/1/219 12/1/219 7/1/22 2/1/221 9/1/221 4/1/222 11/1/222 Bcf/d Natural Gas Exports to Mexico driven by Falling Production and LNG imports as well as Growing Demand Exports to Mexico to grow to 6.3 Bcf/d by 222, 72% increase from 216 Dry Production LNG Imports Southwest Exports Texas Exports Private & Confidential 1 Source: SENER, Platts Analytics Bentek, Platts Analytics Eclipse

11 South America Private & Confidential 11

12 Bcf Natural Gas SOUTH AMERICA LNG DEMAND Argentina Brazil Chile Bolivia 12

13 MTPA Global LNG Demand by Region South America relying onben short term volumes LNG Imports by Region Spot and Short Term Imports 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % East Asia West Asia East Asia West Asia Europe South America Europe South America North America Middle East North America Middle East Private & Confidential 13

14 Bcf Natural Gas SOUTH AMERICA LNG SUPPLIERS Trinidad and Tobago Qatar Nigeria Equatorial Guinea USA Re-Exports Other 14

15 Sabine Pass Exports by Country of Destination Argentina Brazil Chile China Dominica Egypt India Italy Japan Jordan Kuwait Mexico Portugal South Korea Spain Turkey United Arab Emirates Private & Confidential 15

16 Bcf Natural Gas US Exports Displacing Re-Exports South America + Manzanillo: Re-Exports vs. USA Exports vs. Trinidad Exports Re-Exports Trinidad & Tobago USA Private & Confidential 16

17 Natural Gas Worldwide Rig Count: January 214 vs January 217 Latin America: 57% Drop (Excluding US & Canada) Europe Source: Platts Analytics LatAm 176 / Africa 79 / -6 Middle East 382 / -13 Asia Pacific 186 / -7 Total 933 Change -392 Source: Baker Hughes 17

18 Brazil Bolivian Imports vs. LNG; Presalt Production Private & Confidential 18

19 LNG Imports / Exports (Bcf) Stored Energy (GWh) Natural Gas BRAZIL LNG IMPORTS VS. HYDRO STORED ENERGY: LNG PEAK DEMAND ,. 185,. 165,. 145,. 125,. 15,. 85,. 65,. 45,. 25,. Guanabara Pecem Bahia Re-exports Stored Energy - Hydro 19

20 Y-O-Y Change (GWh) Stored Energy (Gwh) Natural Gas Y-O-Y POWER GENERATION CHANGES 8, 6, 4, 2, -2, -4, -6, -8, 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Hydro Y-O-Y Change Nuclear Y-O-Y Change Thermal Y-O-Y Change Wind Y-O-Y Change 2

21 Bcf $/MMBtu Natural Gas PIPELINE IMPORTS FROM BOLIVIA Pipeline Imports from Bolivia $/MMBtu 21

22 $/MMBtu Natural Gas BRAZIL LNG VS. BOLIVIAN IMPORTS - PRICES LNG Imports Pipeline Imports 22

23 Bcf # of Rigs Natural Gas BRAZIL NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION Alagoas Barreirinhas Campos Camamu Ceará Espírito Santo Parnaíba Potiguar Recôncavo Santos Sergipe Solimões Tucano Sul Available # of Rigs 23

24 Natural Gas Energy Planning Agency 1 Year Plan Generation 25, Power Generation Installed Capacity 2, 15, 1, 5, OIL PRODUCTS COAL NATURAL GAS NUCLEAR BIOMASS+WIND+SOLAR HYDRO

25 Natural Gas ENERGY PLANNING AGENCY 1 YEAR PLAN 224 NG SUPPLY 25

26 Natural Gas BOLOGNESI TO BUILD TWO LNG TERMINALS AND POWER PLANTS Bolognesi won government electricity procurement auction for 2,4 MW. 1,238MW Novo Tempo plant in Porto de Suape, in the northeastern state of Pernambuco 1,238MW UTERG plant in Rio Grande do Sul state in the south. Two similar terminals (FSRUs) which will deliver LNG to the Rio Grande and Suape ports. Each FSRU with a 3.6 mpta regas capacity. Aneel new deadline: August 217 Starting operations in

27 Argentina Domestic Production vs. Bolivian Imports vs. LNG Private & Confidential 27

28 GWh GWh Natural Gas ARGENTINA POWER DEMAND 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Argentina Generation Argentina Fuel Consumption 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Overall Thermal Nuclear Hydro Carbon FO GO Gas Private & Confidential 28

29 Bcf Natural Gas ARGENTINA NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION Gas Plus II Producers Receive $7.5/MMbtu On Shore Production Off Shore Production # of Rigs 29

30 Natural Gas Production in Neuquen Growth in tight and shale gas Source: Neuquen Subsec. De Energia, Mineria e Hidrocarburos. 3

31 Bcf Natural Gas Argentina Pipeline Imports / Exports July 216 Fine of $ US 2 million to YPFB Imports from Bolivia Imports / Exports Chile Exports to Urugay 31

32 $/MMBtu Natural Gas ARGENTINA LNG VS. BOLIVIAN IMPORTS - PRICES Pipeline Imports LNG Imports 32

33 Natural Gas Puerto Rosales Project Expression of Interest ENARSA FSRU Requirement Base Case 1: Q-Max (preferably) or Q-Flex FSRU with a Regas Capacity of 3 million cubic feet per day. Base Case 2: Q-Max (preferably) or Q-Flex FSRU with a Regas Capacity of 2 million cubic feet per day. Alternative Case 1: Conventional FSRU, of minimum 15, cubic meter storage capacity and Regas Capacity of 3 million cubic feet per day. Alternative Case 2: Conventional FSRU, of minimum 15, cubic meter storage capacity and Regas Capacity of 2 million cubic feet per day. Expected FID: > August 218 Contract duration: 7 years, having ENARSA the option to extend it to 7 more years Private & Confidential 33

34 Bolivia Private & Confidential 34

35 MM3/d Natural Gas Bolivia Natural Gas Consumption 4% Increase vs Direct Consumption Power Residential. Commercial. Industrial Private & Confidential 35

36 MM3/d # of Rigs Natural Gas Bolivia Natural Gas Production Production # of Rigs Private & Confidential 36

37 Chile Private & Confidential 37

38 Natural Gas Panama Canal Expansion Main Destinations: Manzanillo and Chile Private & Confidential 38

39 Bcf Bcf Chile Natural Gas Supply Development of Cuenca de Magallanes Production LNG Imports Imports from Argentina Production Production # of Rigs 39

40 GWh Chile Power Demand 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Solar Hydro Natural Gas/GNL Wind Oil Coal Biomass

41 Third LNG Terminal Penco Lirquen, FSRU Proposed combined cycle + FSRU: El Campesino 1.2 MW - US LNG from Chorpus Christy, Third LNG Terminal Penco Lirquen, FSRU, supplied by Hoegh LNG, will be moored in Concepcion Bay in south-central Chile Proposed regasification capacity of 1.38 million mt/yr, $165 million, will take 23 months to build Initial environmental approval revoked by Chile's supreme court on Feb % SIC - SING ,586 MW 2.%.% 4.% 14.% 23.% 23.% 32.% Hydro Natural Gas Coal SIC - SING ,374 MW 2.% 9.% 6.% 4.% 1.% 21.% 29.% 19.% Oil Diesel Mini Hidro Wind Solar Hydro Natural Gas Coal Oil Diesel Mini Hidro Wind Solar 41

42 Colombia Private & Confidential 42

43 GBTUD COLOMBIA Natural Gas Production vs Drilling Activity 1,3 1,2 1,1 1, Producción de Gas # de Rigs Source: Baker Hughes, Platts Analytics 43

44 Gwh Natural Gas Colombia: Power Generation Thermal Generagion compensates for drop in Hydro during el Niño 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Hidroeléctrica Cogeneración Térmica Pequeña Escala Source:XM,Concentra, UPME, Minminas, Platts 44

45 Aug-5 Dec-5 Apr-6 Aug-6 Dec-6 Apr-7 Aug-7 Dec-7 Apr-8 Aug-8 Dec-8 Apr-9 Aug-9 Dec-9 Apr-1 Aug-1 Dec-1 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Natural Gas Fuel Consumption for Power Generation El Niño impact on Gas Demand 25 % Hydropower Generation Demand by Fuel time Source:XM,Concentra, UPME, Minminas, Platts Private & Confidential 45

46 GBTUD Natural Gas Colombia: Natural Gas Demand vs Production Refineria Consumo Ecopetrol Termoelectrico Industriales Petroquimica GNVC Tranportadores GN Residencial Comercial Producción Source: XM,Concentra, UPME, Minminas, Platts 46

47 Natural Gas KRONOS-1 Y ORCA-1 Discoveries in ultra deep waters Source:Ecopetrol, XM,Concentra, UPME, Minminas, Platts 47

48 Natural Gas PLANTA DE REGASIFICACIÓN DE BARÚ Sociedad Portuaria El Cayao, Promigás (51%), and Barú LNG (49%) Structure Build by Sacyr: Cost:: $142 millones Includes a 1 km pipeline desde el lote El Cayao, hasta la Estación Promigás Mamonal, donde se conectará con el sistema nacional de transporte. Objective: Gas supply to main power generation clients during peak deman El Niño periods. FSRU Höegh Grace, build in 215 by Hyundai Regasification capacity: 5 MMcf/d; Storage capacity: 17, m3 First tender won by Mitsui, first cargo was delivered in November.216 l 48

49 Uruguay Private & Confidential 49

50 GNL del Plata World s Largest FSRU: 5.4 Bcf storage capacity US$ B > 218 MOL's FSRU - contract with Gas Sarayo & Mitsui Adds natural gas to Uruguay s Energy Matrix 54 MW combined cycle plan Negotiations with Argentina, Brazil and Shell.2% 12.3% 13.1% 1.7% %.7% 17.7% 2% 11% 29% 5% 4% 53.3% 216 8% 41% Oil Hydro Wind Firewood biomass Imports Natural Gas Others Wind Hydro Oil Natural Gass Biomass Firewood Solar 5

51 THANK YOU! Javier Díaz Manager, Energy Analysis and Consulting S&P GLOBAL PLATTS Direct: +1 (72)