Tools, methods and collaboration for adaptation: some initiatives from the Pacific region

Transcription

1 Tools, methods and collaboration for adaptation: some initiatives from the Pacific region Richard Warrick University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore DC QLD 4558, Australia, **CLIMsystems Ltd., Hamilton, New Zealand Presented at UNFCCC Technical Workshop on Collaboration Among Regional Centres and Networks 2-5 March 2010 Apia, Samoa.

2 ORGANISATIONS Software Tools and Models Applications and Technical Assistance Education and Training (Formerly members of IGCI, Waikato University) +

3 SimCLIM The integrated modelling system for assessing impacts and adaptation to climatic variability and change

4 The SimCLIM System Scenario selections! Global-Mean Temperature and Sea - Level Projections Spatial climatologies Time-series climate data Local Climate Means, variability, extremes GCM patterns GCM patte rns Synthetic Synthetic changes changes Userdefined Model parameter values model parameters Sectoral Impact Models Coast Agriculture Water Health Land data Other spatial data Effects

5 SimCLIM can be used to: Describe baseline climates Create climate scenarios (including GCM ensembles) Mean-annual Precipitation for Southeast Queensland Observed Examine uncertainties Examine climate variability and extremes Examine impacts Assess risks Investigate adaptation Facilitate adaptation process

6 SimCLIM can be used to: Mean-annual Precipitation for Southeast Queensland Describe baseline climates Create climate scenarios (including GCM ensembles) Examine uncertainties Examine climate variability and extremes Examine impacts Assess risks Investigate adaptation Facilitate adaptation process Observed 2070

7 SimCLIM can be used to: Describe baseline climates Create climate scenarios (including GCM ensembles) Examine uncertainties Examine climate variability and extremes Examine impacts Assess risks Investigate adaptation SimCLIM contains 21 GCM patterns from IPCC AR4 Facilitate adaptation process

8 SimCLIM can be used to: Describe baseline climates Create climate scenarios (including GCM ensembles) Examine uncertainties Examine climate variability and extremes Examine impacts Assess risks Investigate adaptation SimCLIM contains 21 GCM patterns from IPCC AR4 Facilitate adaptation process

9 SimCLIM can be used to: Describe baseline climates Create climate scenarios (including GCM ensembles) Examine uncertainties Examine climate variability and extremes Examine impacts Assess risks Investigate adaptation SimCLIM contains 21 GCM patterns from IPCC AR4 Facilitate adaptation process

10 SimCLIM can be used to: Analyses of time-series data Example: change in risk of extreme hot days Describe baseline climates Create climate scenarios (including GCM ensembles) Examine uncertainties Examine climate variability and extremes Examine impacts Assess risks Investigate adaptation Facilitate adaptation process

11 SimCLIM can be used to: Describe baseline climates Create climate scenarios (including GCM ensembles) Examine uncertainties Examine climate variability and extremes Examine impacts Assess risks Investigate adaptation Facilitate adaptation process Integrated tools, e.g.: Data browser Extreme event analyser Re-class tool Map calculator Plug-in models, e.g.: Shoreline change Degree-day Atmospheric water-balance PlantGro Domestic water-harvesting Linked models, e.g.: Danish Hydraulic Institute (DHI) ICASA-DSSAT crop models

12 SimCLIM can be used to: Describe baseline climates SimCLIM Water Tank Model Create climate scenarios (including GCM ensembles) Examine uncertainties Examine climate variability and extremes Examine impacts Assess risks Investigate adaptation Facilitate adaptation process Model run Variable: Daily rainfall Station: Brisbane Aero Time-series: Number of times tank empty Longest period of empty tank (days) 5 22

13 SimCLIM can be used to: Describe baseline climates Create climate scenarios (including GCM ensembles) SimCLIM Water Tank Model Climate change and adaptation options for reducing the risks of tank failure Examine uncertainties Examine climate variability and extremes Examine impacts Assess risks Investigate adaptation Facilitate adaptation process Climate Model Scenario run run Year: Variable: 2050 Daily rainfall GCM: Station: HadCM3 Brisbane Aero Emission: Time-series: SRES A1FI Climate Sensitivity: HIGH Adaptation Option Do nothing Add extra 10,000 litre tank Reduce daily consumption by 5% Add garage roof to catchment area (40m 2 ) Raise critical threshold level (extra 2 days) No. tank failures

14 SimCLIMs have been built for: Albay, Philippines India (plus States) South Korea Australia (plus States) Ireland Sri Lanka Bahamas Japan Taiwan Baltic States Java, Indonesia Tanzania Botswana Luzon, Philippines Tonga Brazil Mindanao, Philippines Vanuatu Cambodia Mexico Mongolia Canada Nambucca, Australia Malaysia China Nauru South East Queensland Cook island New Zealand UK Denmark Nigeria Ukraine Fiji Pakistan USA (plus 48 States ) Ghana Solomon Islands

15 UNIVERSITY of the SUNSHINE COAST Post-Graduate Programme leading to: Graduate Certificate Graduate Diploma Masters in Climate Change Adaptation core courses: ENS310 Climate Change Adaptation ENS320 Climate Change Mitigation Theory and Practice ENS314 Climatic and Hydrological Systems ENS715 Applied Climatic and Hydrological Systems Project ENS708 Environmental and Sustainability Evaluation ENS709 Environmental and Sustainability Evaluation Project

16 Collaborative Network for Climate Change Adaptation

17 Collaborative Network for Climate Change Adaptation Training and education, Institutional strengthening and knowledge sharing Research Applications Regional engagement

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